RIP Slate Star Codex

Intended for constructive conversations. Exhibits of polarizing tribalism will be deleted.
jacob
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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by jacob »

@Campitor - Movements always start with a bunch of nerds (people who dive much deeper than others) developing theories and writing manifests. They might do this way before their time. At some point, a popularizer will appear who is not necessarily the same as the nerds but they could be. This attracts zealots and now we have extremists driven by an agenda. Mistakes are made as extremists face off against opposing extremists. However, this brings attention to the issue by the wider community, who otherwise don't care since it doesn't pertain to them, who can no longer ignore it.

In that regard, the BLM protests have already changed a lot. The majority of Americans now consider this to be an important issue. This was not the case a couple of months ago. IOW, this is now a majority issue and not a minority issue. Such a shift is huge for any issue.

Terminations and witch hunts are to be expected in the sense that they're extralegal social control (see my response to MI below). Humans used to do way worse things to other humans than firing them from their jobs or wringing them through [social] media. In retrospect, some injustices will become apparent and remembered. OTOH, justice will also be served in cases where some got off far easier than they should have. See the initial rounds of metoo in the US from a couple of years ago and where it's currently at to get a glimpse of where race issues could easily be a few years from now.

Free speech is of course only free as far as the government is concerned. Private citizens or groups (corporations) still don't consider it free, as in free of consequences. Say something outside the social control of the Overton window (or the opinion corridor) and prepare to pay the social consequences. What I want to emphasize here is that it behooves to keep in mind how the speech is received and what consequences it has in society at large. I only point this out because many expect that free speech means they should be able to say whatever they want (anonymously) w/o personal consequences. IOW "free speech" to them means "gratis speech" and that was never the case. Basically, many free speech advocates tend to forget that their free speech also allows for them to hang themselves in the public court. (This is a huge/tragic issue for the many "edgelords" that inhabit the murkier corners of the interwebs these days. They lack the socialization (see answer to MI) to realize what kind of minefield they're playing in just to get "lulz".)

Point being, that societal change of opinion is a process that takes years and involves multiple groups of people with different ways of seeing politics. See viewtopic.php?p=220927#p220927 ...

The number of people hashing out the process via debate as opposed to rooting for sportsballs or marching in the streets is small. (The number of people literally marching and protesting is also small. Sportsball is the largest group.)

In the investment metaphor, right now we're in a high volatility period. This is where fortunes are lost and made. This is not the time for amateurs (people unrelated to a movement whether pro or con) to get into the fray to make their points. It is already too late for that. At some point, the "opinion market" will stabilize at a new equilibrium.

And yes, Europe is slow-walking into a similar situation with refugees and "gastarbeiters" (immigrant low-skill labor) (thanks ertyu for reviving that word---it's something that much of Europe likes to pretend never happened). The current [welfare] systems are not set up relative to the numbers/percentages they're tasked to deal with (thanks climate change). As a result the situation seems to be converging on developing a permanent underclass. This is not racist as much as its culturalist. Either way, it attracting people who are not doing well economically and seeks to blame the weakest out-groups. Americans are no different than Europeans in that regard. Before Trump I thought otherwise, but now I think humans are all the same and contain significant minority of people who will "tribal up" when pressured. Currently that holsd for 20-30% of the population regardless of American or European. It's possibly that the real number is higher insofar the economic pressure gets higher. I don't know. (See further discussion below.)

Key differences between the EU and the US in dealing with this (as I see it). EU has wide and deep historical experience from things gone wrong (however, this is already a long time ago and people are beginning to forget). The US does not. The US is a country of immigrants (self-image). The EU is not. The US political system is bistable (can get locked into the wrong track for a long time). The EU political system is unstable (easily makes mistakes but easily reverts too). I'm not high enough on the political CCCCCC scale to see what this will eventually lead to. I can only compare and compile.

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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by jacob »

@MI - Social control covers a wide array of means including government regulations. However, the way I meant it and the way it's most commonly used(??) is how groups informally establish and regulate norms for acceptable behavior of individuals through shame, ridicule, compliments, ignoring, setting examples, etc. and ultimately inclusion or exclusion of the group. This learning process is called socialization. (Its completion is what distinguishes Kegan2 from Kegan3.)

The AD&D stuff is fascinating insofar how well it applies to real life humans. Rich in terms of how much effort that guy and other players have clearly put into describing the various motivations. It's like enneagrams as far as depth is concerned. Enneagrams also focus mainly what motivates people rather than who (temperament) they are.

I do wonder just how much my personal position is influenced by my personal alignment. (I think a lot, but I'm not directly aware of it.)

Libertarians easily fall into the "chaotic good" alignment. Everybody has a wing and if I had one, chaotic good would be it, because that's where I came from. I do think you're confusing True Neutral (at least the heavily philosophically oriented) with standard Neutral which is more like how an animal (amoral) creature would behave. (Animals are generally considered neutral.)

A true neutral attitude would seek to restore balance in the system under the philosophical belief that all alignments and the resulting conflicts are part of the system. Chemical reactions are not watched dispassionately as much as they're considered part of the process. Something the world (and the people in it) necessarily work through. True neutral is kinda stoic in that way.

Forum wise, you'll see this reflected in me trying to provide some counter balance insofar the vocal voices have tilted too far in one direction. E.g. if there's too much zerohedge derived conspiracy stuff or political volatility, I'll add in establishment positions. If there's too much huffington post inspired stuff, I'll weigh in with an individualist perspective. If free market economists take over, I'll point out where/when free markets break because people refuse to trade anymore ... and so on. Anyone who's been here for years have seen the pendulum swing back and forth and back again.

I believe most people are large stuck where they are whether they base their stance on sportsball or their personal economic/temperamental/values. However, to run a good forum, it's important that it doesn't turn into a total echo chamber of only narrowly approved opinions. At least that would not be of value to me. (It would be like a monoculture farm and I'm not interested in maximizing the production of BS or memes that passes for echo chamber politics these days :-D ) I actively try to avoid having the forum pendulum get stuck in a particular position.

From the true neutral perspective, the goal is more to preserve balance in the system that allows continued interaction than seeing one alignment win/destroy its opposition. Preserve the system. A belief that all representations are important (if nothing else as to serve as a bad example) because ultimately they reflect components of human beings. Imagine for example if the proverbial nazis were completely banned from public existence. In my opinion that would just be asking for a new Hitler to pop up sometime in the future because people had completely forgotten how to recognize the pattern. (I reckon this is an unusual position, but I have my reasons.)

This is also why so many of the forum rules are designed to "respect the opponent", that is, think of it as a rules-based fight or a dance rather than mortal combat.

Obviously it seems borderline ridiculous to explain this via a recreational gaming system, but I find game-design metaphors highly useful to explain what drives people. Life is a kind of game https://www.amazon.com/Finite-Infinite- ... 476731713/ (The forum is an infinite game.)

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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by Campitor »

Do you really expect to live into an age where nobody, including you, could hack together a rough printing press or telegraph system?
No.

I'm more concerned with STEM/Medical breakthroughs and knowledge being censored thereby resulting in inadequately trained and uninformed people controlling crucial infrastructure.

As SJW and science denier activity snowballs ignorance into an avalanche, it will be important for those who have the knowledge to preserve it, teach it, evolve it, and curate it. To prevent the censorship of their knowledge requires hiding or disguising their activity. This hidden activity can be virtual (locked forums and members only sites and/or net meetings) to remote campuses where the non-triggered STEM/Medical professionals and students can gather, learn, and teach.

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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by jacob »

@7wb5 - One would have to transcend the sportsball or grow out of the agenda mindset (usually real world life experience does it) mentality to appreciate people with other ideologies.

I don't know if it directly improves chances to survive the zombie apocalypse---I think that is the wrong way to think about it---but it does serve to a) be much more aware of how other people's values and information channels determine their reactions; and b) make them realte to you as a fellow human rather than "the other".

I maintain a fairly wide net in real life. For example, I know where the gun wielding "pink shirt" couple from St Louis are coming from because I know people like that. I also know where the protesters are coming from because I also know people like that. They know me but who they don't know are each other. I try to build bridges and prevent "stupid", but it's a tenuous, tedious, and slow process. If I go too fast, they'll start pigeon-holing me as "the other". It requires a certain level of political Aikido.

And sure, from a nihilistic perspective---I'm more of a societal fatalist---it's more interesting than living in an echo chamber. In particular, when people say they're worldly wise because they bought a plane ticket and had coffee on the other side of the world ... well, that's IMHO not nearly as adventurous as hanging out with various political oppositions.

@nomadscientist - Sure, not everybody builds their ideology by rationalizing it logically from ground up. Half do it because it feels right, etc. Different mental processing. Point being an "ideologist" arrived at their beliefs according to their own personal situation. Socioeconomic situation, education/cultural capital, readings, friends, status, job, ... there's a chain leading from any and all of those to what they hold as best. Their position draws from multiple [somewhat] independent sources. This is unlike the other [earlier] groups who either derive it from a specific belief/agenda or belonging to a particular tribe.

For the ideological group, drift is to be expected and so shifts are unlikely/slow.

For the tribal group, drift is highly resisted and shifts require working through a lot of cognitive mea culpa dissonance. A tendency to go down with the sinking ship.

For the agenda group, drift is resisted but shifts can be spectacular and flip 180.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

Point taken on the forum moderation. I get inflamed on this topic because getting fired was no fun but simultaneously recognize this is the creature and the not the creator in me. Games are certainly useful descriptors. Working to improve my mind sculpt game. When I calm the creature is relieved and the creator restored, but perhaps it is evolutionarily advantageous that there is a ghost to override the machine when I need to survive.

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Jean
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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by Jean »

What i found weird, is this denial that what immigrant are being blamed for is actually true and really due to immigrants. This is like climate change denial to me. With the exception that it's much easier to enforce borders than global greenhouse gazes emission reductions. And the one complaint aren't the one benefiting from cheaper labor. There is no god given right to move to one place, it's always a consensual agreement, or an invasion. And if many indigineous don't agree, it is by definition an invasion to them.

I agree that people have a right to fire you for wathever reason. But it's unfair that there are so many reason that are illégal to fire someone for.

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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by AnalyticalEngine »

Thanks for posting that Rules for Rulers video. That has to be the best explanation I have seen for my observations of both corporate politics as well as the way some activist/counterculture/even hobby communities seem to implode. Understanding the roots of power/politics can easily be a blind spot when one is caught up in being a Lone Wolf Rugged Individualist. It's pretty interesting how a lot of politics, both national and petty, make a lot more sense when viewed from the lens of negotiating the needs of people with more institutional power than oneself.

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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

jennypenny wrote:I don't believe we'll fall into a dark age wrt STEM. What I worry about is losing our humanity during the STEM revolution because the Humanities picked an inopportune time to go batshit.
Well, my take is more in alignment with the representatives of the Humanities who signed the Harper's letter I linked. Also, it's not just 20th century humanities becoming less relevant in face of recent work. Fields as dismal as Economics and Statistics are also getting a bit beat up by the machines.
jacob wrote:I don't know if it directly improves chances to survive the zombie apocalypse---I think that is the wrong way to think about it---but it does serve to a) be much more aware of how other people's values and information channels determine their reactions; and b) make them realte to you as a fellow human rather than "the other".
... It requires a certain level of political Aikido.
...not nearly as adventurous as hanging out with various political oppositions.
Yeah, due to low-level risk-aversion I am more concerned with keeping myself amused/informed than surviving apocalypse.
Campitor wrote:I'm more concerned with STEM/Medical breakthroughs and knowledge being censored thereby resulting in inadequately trained and uninformed people controlling crucial infrastructure.

As SJW and science denier activity snowballs ignorance into an avalanche, it will be important for those who have the knowledge to preserve it, teach it, evolve it, and curate it. To prevent the censorship of their knowledge requires hiding or disguising their activity. This hidden activity can be virtual (locked forums and members only sites and/or net meetings) to remote campuses where the non-triggered STEM/Medical professionals and students can gather, learn, and teach.
Is anybody really up in political arms about whether or not balloons should be floated to provide rural internet service? Also, it wasn't lack of scientific breakthroughs that caused two dams to break flooding a city in my region recently. Obviously, there are very real attacks to scientific reason from extremists on both sides of the spectrum, but it's always helpful over the long run to have reality on your side of the debate.

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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by jacob »

@Jean - Would you agree to temporarily changing the evolutionary variable from abundance to population density? I think humans evolved when density was sufficiently small that humans---given our increasingly large brain advantage but limited skills in speed, size, ..---were better off banding together in tribes and pursuing some mild territorial defense of limited resources (prey, females, fertile ground). See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World_Until_Yesterday

Eventually, the neocortex advantage became big enough for humans to essentially take over the world thanks to tool and fire use, language, civilization. Humans + our livestock now account for 90% of the mammalian biomass on the planet much of which is supported by drawing down finite stocks of nonrenewable resources. This will not last and your concern is what will happen once the situation reverts. Correct?

I share that concern, but my focus is on the period between now and that future point where humanity has to squeeze itself back into the bottle.

Right now the situation is such that there are places where multiple tribes live close enough to overlap while there are other places where this has not happened. When tribes overlap, we focus on using our human brains (neocortex) to work out principles that allow tribes to more or less get along in the same space (tolerance of the other). Where tribes don't overlap we find such regulations unnecessary and oppressive and so we're against such regulations (intolerance of the other). This distinguishes Democrats and Republicans in the US. From an Euro perspective with its much higher population density, everybody is pretty much a US Democrat. In the US, you can pretty much tell which percentage is D vs R based on how many people live there per square mile.

This argument can easily be extended to cover nativists or any other sorting mechanism. Point being that people exist on a spectrum. Deep environmentalists, for example, often side with nationalists in terms of closing off immigration because they're concerned about abundance as well albeit for other reasons.

Adding to the spectrum ... some people believe in a future of abundance (techno-optimists) and others believe the future is going to shit. Some people are personally experiencing economic affluence and others are personally turning into economic roadkill. This too influences abundance perspectives. This sorts people politically. The reason that this acts as a sorting mechanism is that the outcome is not clear/obvious to everybody and so here we are.

Now lets talk about personal strategies.

I see you as being concerned about the far future where you figure and plan on some kind of struggle between your tribe and other tribes to make it through the population bottleneck that is likely coming unless the techno-optimists can pull off another miracle. You want to prepare for that by excluding X people and including Y people.

However, from my perspective (and I'll try to recruit 7wb5's argument too for some of my argument), this is both too far into the future, it's hard to know who is X and who is Y, and most humans (not all... but if you're reading this, you're in their company) are still operating from a position of abundance.

Therefore the conflict is about figuring out how much to tolerate other tribes and decide on rules that allows lots of human tribes to live together. It's somewhere between positive-sum and zero-sum politics.

Starting the negative-sum position early will turn off most of society because it's way outside the Overton window of the world as it is now and likely will be for the next 5-50 years (depending on where you live). The blind spots are not to realize this and pick the wrong groups/tribes too early. In investment circles (to pick an easily understandable analogy), being early and right is the same as being wrong. You might end up being right very many years from now, but I also think you're very wrong now. What you have now corresponds to a short position on a popular position. In short, the envisioned "tribal struggle" is way outside the current opinion corridor and it will likely remain so for the next several decades.

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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by nomadscientist »

The idea that resource competition etc. disappears when people get intermixed within a state is both ahistorical and illogical. It continues by political and other legal means, and usually intensifies until the legal order itself collapses due to incohesion, as happens frequently e.g. Yugoslavia, Austro-Hungarian Empire, Ottoman Empire, Russian Empire, Soviet Union, etc. Then you get military conflict despite intermixing which unlike state wars is often genocidal.

Having a gang is always useful, in times of abundance as well as scarcity, in political competition as well as in military competition. It's self-destructive to give up your gang for any reason but reconstituting a bigger and more powerful gang. Decreased cohesion from including more groups means decreased power which may or may not be compensated by what else those groups bring to the table. If you disagree with this then the reductio is to ask whether one man can take on the world***?

The US is a big gang that currently dominates the world* and that is the main force holding it together. Lots of disparate groups see they benefit from being part of the biggest and strongest gang even if it sometimes requires them to oppose their own interests. The alternative is being a small fully self-interested gang with little power that is subject to the power of the US. That's the more true the weaker the underlying group would be on its own which is precisely why the system appeals to and focuses the most of its attention on these demographics and why they're consequently the most loyal to the party identified with this strategy (D in the US).

That doesn't mean they all give up their ambitions though and the stronger the US as a whole appears the more they're willing to sacrifice the US's overall power for the sake of shifting internal control more towards their group. The US itself needs to navigate an Overton-like corridor to survive. If it becomes weak it will fall apart because this Faustian trade of autonomy-for-power no longer exists while if it becomes so powerful it faces no outside threats it loses its purpose as the only place to make gains is in internal fighting.

As for why European countries are bringing in low performance immigrant groups, the most obvious explanation is to model themselves more on the US metropole*. If in the US African-descended people are high status and West Virginia trailer park boys are low status, European elites want some African-descended people to help out rather than their own equivalent of West Virginia trailer park boys. A lot of the resentment in Europe is due to these groups being kicked out of the officially favoured victims circle (Proletariat) into the group of officially smelly people (angry nativists) for absolutely no cause in which they had any agency or blame**. Another reason is that it's a successful political formula that one of the parties (usually the left one) can use to create a vote bank of people who will bloc vote for them regardless of any policy or PR considerations.


*as I argued in the other thread, Europe is D because D conquered Europe in 1945. Before that it was much denser relatively than the US than now but very much not D in its political outlook(s).

**I don't identify with these people and don't particularly care about them, but they have a very reasonable worldview.

***I realise we are all somewhat in that mindset here but we take for granted a lot of legal mechanisms that enable a lot of what we do.

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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by Mister Imperceptible »

@Jean

Si vis pacem para bellum

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Jean
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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by Jean »

Nice. Especially population density and rule. This is more precise, except one point.
I think i can point were we disagree.
-most humans recognize very easily who is X and who is Y. Not being able to do so is rarer than i think you believe. Not being clearly identifiable as X and Y, is going to be a handicap in the same way as having black eyeballs that don't let other people know where you look was a few millions years ago.

-My tribe seems to be the last one that hasn't started negativ sum games. The earlier we join other tribes in those game, the better the outcome for my tribe.

-I think you underestimate how much people are tired of having to tolerate other tribes négative sum games. Your assumption that EU's inhabitants are more tolerant of other tribes is wrong. We effectively tolerate rules more.
In the USA, tribes live isolated from each other. In europe, they don't. We are getting to the point were everyone knows someone that was victime of negative sum activities of other tribe member. If left alone with a random same gender membrer of my own tribe, the more likely outcome is that we'll talk about how we'll handle our tribe's future involvment in those negative sum games.
My Friends are ranging from leftist activists to very racist. Every one knows my opinion, and the rate at which peoples start to think that intertribes activities will soo only be négative is increasing very quickly. The last attempt to ostracize me for my opinion was four years ago. Initiators left the city since. I'm still around, and Friend with their left leaning Friend.
The overtone Windows in Europe is very far from what is acceptable in the media and surface internet. The media défine what is acceptable to say in front of the gender less enthusiast about negativ sum activities, and this gender votes as well. But as soon as elected institutions won't be able to keep their legitimity, it will turn instantly, because the majority of the negativ sum game avantaged people are already agreeing that our tribe would benefit from quickly and intensively engaging into negative sum activities. Social and legal limitations of free speech ar worsening our ability to know what people think.

-Other tribes already engaging in those negativ sum games is a good indicator of where the overtone Windows is among them. This is coherent with what got out of my positiv sum interaction with other tribe's same gender members. They say they don't believe in tribes cohabitating, even if occasionaly visiting each other is a positiv sum game.

Blind spot is not realizing this and believing that you have more to gain in keeping the sympathy of those benefiting from the status quo than in allowing it to happen earlier (and with consequently a less negativ sum).

In the end, we only disagree on our picture of how far people are in their way to accept the need to engage in negativ sum activities (because if i understand you correctly, you also think that only a technological miracle could prevent it). This could easily be explained by the people we interact with. Or by our different abilities to judge how skewed our samples are. Or maybe us thinking differently and deciding for différent strategy is precisely the strategy our tribe (or specie for that matter) evolved toward. Maybe the only wrong choice would be to agree, because then, too much possibilities would stay unhedged.
I Hope i contributed to improve the accuracy of your world view. That, and having my own improved, are the main reason i participate in this forum. That's why i ignore the local overtone Windows. I Hope i don't underestimate how many readers it prevents to take my writings seriously.

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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by jennypenny »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:15 pm
Well, my take is more in alignment with the representatives of the Humanities who signed the Harper's letter I linked.
So is mine (sorry if I didn't make that clear). But they/we are the minority. Also notice the average age of the signatories of that letter -- that works against them in trying to stem the tide.

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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by Campitor »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:15 pm
Is anybody really up in political arms about whether or not balloons should be floated to provide rural internet service?


Probably not balloons but Elon's Starlink WiFi satellites are concerning astronomers: https://phys.org/news/2019-05-sky-elon- ... twork.html.
Also, it wasn't lack of scientific breakthroughs that caused two dams to break flooding a city in my region recently. Obviously, there are very real attacks to scientific reason from extremists on both sides of the spectrum, but it's always helpful over the long run to have reality on your side of the debate.
I agree the 2 dam failures weren't caused by a lack of a scientific breakthrough. The dam failures were caused by neglect - failure to engage the "E" in STEM for repairs.

And progroms and purges occurred in the 20th century which is recent history. Things devolve quickly. And science has been under attack for a few decades now and the science deniers are not relenting. In fact it seems they're doubling down. It's now a 2 pronged attack from the Left and Right.

While the barbarians may not be breaking down the gates just yet, they're certainly knocking on it.

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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@jennypenny:

Yeah, I noted the generational divide too. I would love to spend the rest of the summer on a beach circa 1979.

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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by Campitor »

@Jacob

As always your responses to my posts are densely packed with information and ideas which causes me to ruminating deeply on what you've written.

I agree that free speech doesn't equate to immunity of consequences. If a person chooses to express their opinion in a vitriolic and insufferable manner, they are responsible for the consequences of their social ineptitude.

But this isn't the speech I'm worried about. When reasonable scientists and scholars are attacked, their publications purged, and their jobs terminated for discussing ideas cordially, it concerns me. And it appears to be accelerating. I hope I'm wrong.

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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by nomadscientist »

Generally the other side is allowed to express their opinion in a vitriolic and insufferable manner, e.g. by spreading a deadly virus while stealing consumer goods from unrelated corporations.

This is very much the nature of human societies where vitriol etc. are not simply bads (or they would not exist) but privileges that mark social status.

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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

“Campitor” wrote: While the barbarians may not be breaking down the gates just yet, they're certainly knocking on it.
The left being anti-tech and the right being anti-new-theory-that-conflicts-with-status-quo is nothing new. I think SHTF is inevitable, but clear predictive pattern not so much.

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Re: RIP Slate Star Codex

Post by jennypenny »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Wed Jul 08, 2020 10:41 am
Yay, Harpers! I can always count on you.

https://harpers.org/a-letter-on-justic ... en-debate/
Did you see that some of the people who signed that letter were upset after it was published and they saw who else signed it, asking to have their names removed and/or apologizing on social media. Doesn't that kinda go against the thrust of the letter?

Can't make this stuff up.

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