What do you hope we learn from covid?

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sid3
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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by sid3 »

I hope we learn the proper amount of quarantine to apply to an amount of pandemic.

Riggerjack
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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by Riggerjack »

I hope we factor in the value of defeating many viruses that have plagued us over all of history, as we think about the costs and balances of this lockdown. And the slow lifting of restrictions, after.

How many strains of the common cold and influenzas are going to die out in the odd environment we are creating to deal with C19? Will the reduction in strains be enough to make vaccines more effective? Could this reduce the viral genepool enough that with a few years of flu shots, we could no longer have a flu season?

Obviously, viruses with more than one host species will have an advantage, but this lockdown has to be the Great Famine for airborne viruses, or at least it could be...

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Ego
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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by Ego »

Riggerjack wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:30 pm
How many strains of the common cold and influenzas are going to die out in the odd environment we are creating to deal with C19? Will the reduction in strains be enough to make vaccines more effective? Could this reduce the viral genepool enough that with a few years of flu shots, we could no longer have a flu season?
Invert. The opposite is more likely. People will become so immunologically weak as a result of self-isolation that they are more vulnerable to the virus and to many other infections.

Here are two ER physicians discussing this very issue....

https://youtu.be/xfLVxx_lBLU?t=2048

Freedom_2018
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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by Freedom_2018 »

All this hand washing and sanitizing...if some bug survives all that...gonna be a real nasty one to deal with.

Not that I am not washing hands or wiping down external purchases.

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Ego
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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by Ego »

@Freedom, I don't believe pathogens will evolve to become stronger as a result of hand washing and sanitizing everything, I believe we will become more vulnerable to those normally present -AND- more importantly we will see people having freakish reactions to regular, normally benign bacteria and viruses. Mark my words, autoimmune diseases and allergies will explode as a result.

We need exposure to germs to build healthy immune systems and to have appropriately calibrated reactions to invaders. We keep hearing about people with covid dying from cytokine storms where their immune systems produce hyperactive responses to covid. The thing that kills is the immune system overreaction. Often overreaction is caused by a lack of exposure, especially in youth.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hygiene_hypothesis

7Wannabe5
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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Yeah, for instance, before modern sanitation just about every human ended up living with every strain of herpes. Genital herpes in particular has been prevalent and omnipresent since age of first hominids.

I was watching an episode of Bob Newhart’s second TV show, the one with Larry, Daryl and Daryl, and one of the characters said something about 4.5 billion people on the planet. Doesn’t seem that long ago and now we are heading for double that. Basic problem is too many dirty monkeys on too small planet.

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Ego
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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by Ego »

@7W, it is certainly true that people used to die of communicable diseases far more than they do today.

It is also true that 50% of covid deaths (in the states that are tracking such things) are those who live in the sterile environments of nursing homes. We know they are dying when their immune systems go haywire and cause runaway inflammation in the lungs. Up to now experts have assumed that age related decline is the cause of the high death rates among the elderly. But the elderly, especially those in nursing homes, tend to live shelter-in-place lifestyles even during normal times. Their immune systems do not get the necessary workout-calibration they would if they were regularly exposed to mild pathogens, so they overreact.

So, circling back to the topic at hand. My lesson is the importance of continued exposure to pathogens. Uncalibrated immune systems are deadly.

7Wannabe5
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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Nursing homes are full of pathogens due to the fact that many or most residents have catheters, feeding tubes, or other varieties of open wound equivalents. Also, there is nothing to be done to magically transform the worn out immune system of an 80 year old into that of a healthy 20 year old. Our cells turn over so many times and then we die.

However, I am colored a bit confused by the notion that neither those with lowered immune function or hyper immune function (such as with asthma) are more at risk from Covid. Women tend more towards hyper-immune response and men are dying more, but the symptoms are inflammatory?

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Alphaville
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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by Alphaville »

Yes, this is why astronauts return from the space station and keel over instantly. :roll:

I hope* we learn to do the right thing swiftly instead of dragging on forever with half-ass measures.



* “hope

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Ego
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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by Ego »

Alphaville wrote:
Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:27 pm
Yes, this is why astronauts return from the space station and keel over instantly. :roll:
Thank you for that! Chalk this up as another thing I learned from Covid.

https://www.gutmicrobiotaforhealth.com/ ... stronauts/
Avoiding every last microbe is impossible, of course, even in the highly controlled environment of a spaceship or a training facility. But on the whole, the environment of an astronaut is one of decidedly low microbial diversity. Astronauts’ bodies are not bombarded with the vast number of foreign substances that would be part of a normal Earthling’s day.

Scientists have seen this anti-microbial vigilance as necessary to protect astronauts’ health, since it’s well known that the job goes hand in hand with reduced immune functioning and vulnerability to pathogens. That is, scientists have found that viruses like varicella zoster virus and Epstein-Bar virus—which the body normally harbors in inactive form because the immune system keeps them in check—can be reactivated in astronauts during space missions, indicating faltering immunity...

The relatively recent study of astronauts’ gut microbiota, however, has highlighted a possible problem with these sterile environments. The drive to eliminate all microbes could paradoxically be putting astronauts’ health further at risk—some scientists believe these environments may not be adequately supporting the gut microbiota and its role in maintaining a steady state of health. Of particular note is the crew’s subsistence on preprocessed foods that are free of commensal bacterial species that could “challenge” the gut microbiota.

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Alphaville
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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by Alphaville »

Yep, we don’t need to avoid *all microbes.* We just need to skip the one particularly difficult virus of the day and smear up/ eat the rest. Fermented foods help with that, and studies show that even dead/inactive yogurt cultures will help modulate immune response.

I’m trying to get a sugar [strike]kombucha[/strike] *kefir* (aka water kefir) started for that purpose, but having a hard time finding the right grains right now.

Which reminds me I gotta revive my yogurt cultures with powder milk.
Last edited by Alphaville on Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Riggerjack
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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by Riggerjack »

Invert. The opposite is more likely.
Well, maybe, if this goes on for years...

Just because you survive the flu, doesn't make it harmless, see senescence vs telemere length for a better understanding of long term consequences of illnesses and injury. Yes, hygiene theory is real, but it's not the end of the story.

But in a timeframe of a few months of lockdown followed by a six month plus period of social distance plus masks, most strains of the flu could be exterminated. We already have a vaccine, but too many strains to effectively vaccinate against. If the number of strains were reduced, and the effective R0 rate dropped, I see no reason we couldn't wipe out the flu as a side benefit of dealing with C19.

Pockets would remain, as flu crosses species boundaries, but then in the future, we would deal with flu outbreak, the same way we deal with other outbreaks. Contact tracing and self quarantine.

As with everything else, immune system challenges should be balanced, rather than embraced.

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jennypenny
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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by jennypenny »

Based on my experience today, people aren't learning anything. It's sad. I remember my grandparents telling me about how they got through the depression and WWII. They went through over a decade of lean times and we can't even make two months.

I, on the other hand, have learned a lot. I've learned that I'm willing to give up a lot more, and work a lot harder, to maintain a huge moat around me and my family and to be in a position to raise the drawbridge at a moment's notice.

IlliniDave
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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by IlliniDave »

It's a tough situation.

Most humans are naturally social creatures. Telling them to tamp down that wiring long-term or permanently probably is a no-go in the aggregate. So it's really not a matter of if, or when (has to be soon), but how we transition back to traditional social interaction including full commerce.

From an introvert's perspective the idea of relatively communal living (e.g., renting a room in a house or bringing boarders into mine) has never appealed in the least. That put me at odds with facets of the FIRE continuum. I wonder if any of those folks look differently at the value of the money saved or efficiencies of living in close proximity with relatively large numbers of people. Maybe having a fraction of the population naturally inclined to some amount of social distancing/fragmenting is one of the survival strategies nature built into her creatures.

Regardless, those of us with more of a bunker mentality and ample resources to execute the strategy aren't going to be able to insist the majority world conform to our MO. On average across the world people are living day-to-day or maybe week-to-week. That's true even in wealthy places like the US where it doesn't need to be. But for huge fractions of the population it's essentially mandatory. So in the aggregate, shutting down for months or a year or a few years would probably be calamitous. People like me are working to pad the nest egg; iow, it's a luxury. Most people work to eat and have a home; iow, a necessity.

I sense in the US national discussion will be an irrational clash of opposing cohorts fueled by specious interpretive logic and disingenuous reporting through November. Like it or not, covid-19 is fused to the effort to overturn the executive administration, and every other consideration is subordinate to that for most of the talking heads and politicians that claim to lead the national discussion. A quirk in our system is that much of the authority for decisions relevant to the pandemic belongs to the states and not the federal government. We're already seeing red states (more pro-state's rights generally) moving out to "restore freedom". Bluer states appear to be moving more slowly, and appear to prefer having universally applicable rules versus leaving room for individuals or communities to make their own decisions. It's good that we have choices and variety, I suppose.

So I don't think the US is going to be a model for the world to follow in returning to normalcy. Our phase out will be inconsistent and contentious over the next six months. Maybe some other country will come up with a template we can follow after the election when hopefully the motivation here will truly be what's best for people in the aggregate.

My state's emergency order expires tomorrow and apparently won't be renewed. I expect the restrictions will be lifted incrementally, but aggressively. I don't know how I feel about that. I'll certainly continue to practice social distancing and enhanced hygiene (luckily for me the combination of cat allergies and cats as house pets growing up gave me a jump on being careful to keep my hands washed). But I can't demand it of everyone else. Seems to me it will all collide in the workplace. How many reasons does a guy need to to hang up the pocket protector and TI-25 for good?

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Alphaville
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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by Alphaville »

I’m learning that some people will never learn. Which is hopeless.

Image

Jason

Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by Jason »

For now on, I'm not leaving the house without an extra pair of socks. No way am I going to end up living the rest of my life as "pink sock" guy.

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Alphaville
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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by Alphaville »

Jason wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:14 pm
For now on, I'm not leaving the house without an extra pair of socks. No way am I going to end up living the rest of my life as "pink sock" guy.
alternatively, you could match them with nice a pair of bunny slippers for a complete look

Image

Jason

Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by Jason »

Those are nice, but I''m going "LeBron James Sock" guy if I end up in ICU. They look just like him.

Back to that first picture, at first I thought Pence was staring Pink Sock Guy down, but upon second look, I think he's trying to hide the fact that he's holding his breath.

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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by jacob »

Kim Stanley Robinson essay. He is perhaps best known for the Red Mars, Green Mars, Blue Mars trilogy.
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annal ... our-future

Riggerjack
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Re: What do you hope we learn from covid?

Post by Riggerjack »

Too bad he's writing for the New Yorker, not writing speeches.

The orange man couldn't deliver it, but there are governors that probably could.

I think there are a lot of people who prefer rousing words from their shepherds. He writes better than the lackluster speeches I have heard, so far.

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