- In addition..in situations like quarantine, lockdown..better to shelter in a Red state vs a Blue one as the govt (state..cities are generally blue) is less likely to put a kibosh on individual freedoms...writing this from Arizona where I have been instead of California since returning to the US. People are keeping social distance etc but hiking paths are open and people fish, boat, cycle etc.
I am politically non-aligned and think all our leaders are only there for entertainment value.
im in a blue state and people hike and bycicle and etc.
i’m not free to go around killing others with my spittle as my godgiven right however.
i appreciate good governance and don’t consider it entertainment
- In addition..in situations like quarantine, lockdown..better to shelter in a Red state vs a Blue one as the govt (state..cities are generally blue) is less likely to put a kibosh on individual freedoms...
Even in a red state, blue communities can be locked down more. (I live in the latter type of place.)
One thing I would like to see is a government manufacturing facility for PPE. Just with mothballed equipment which is ready to be put into use after a bit of TLC. Pandemic starts and you can get the stuff cranking out in a week or two.
It would also be nice to see something like a war production board with a bit of money behind it to grease the wheels during emergencies. Food shouldn't be getting destroyed en masse while people are going hungry.
of magnitude in terms of how many stars we can see in the night sky because the haze is gone. All those spotlessly clean scifi cityscapes are real for the time being.
Yeah I’ve noticed this too. Not quite the same as going to the wilderness or Mohave desert but I can see the stars more clearly. I always thought it was the SoCal light pollution from streetlights but a good fraction of it is indeed air pollution.
No one mentioned stocking up on food, or zeroing out a credit card, or any number of ways to minimize risk, so I see no reason why these bailouts won't be necessary again. Now I am sure many, many people have used that money for good, and god bless them for being responsible, but I just cringe when I think of how much money is wasted.
Though we have national chains, there is a huge movement to buy local. People are hammering on buying giftcards and getting takeout with stimulus money, nothing of building an emergency fund/paying off debt/increasing future reserves. It seems that our culture is increasingly short-sighted. I just doubt how sustainable that is.
Easily demonstrated on a cold winter day when the water content of your breath (which may or may not include virus particles) condenses into a fog rendering the droplets visible.
I personally am spending more now than ever. Electronic wealth is holding less value to me as a high score.
The systemic IRL investments I made, so I could both be cheap and avoid dealing with others, also turned out to offer greater resilience. Learning to bulk shop and cook from scratch. Building a home gym. Avoiding driving. Home haircuts. Working from home. ERE ideals worked for me, despite my inherent laziness.
I am now more willing to spend on items that support such behavior. Even overpay for them, relative to what I think is "fair" value. I am far from the point of diminishing returns on that type of spending. There's a disproportionate return in value, even if the raw dollars don't add up. 2.5 baths might look overpriced on paper, but it sure is nice knowing if a shower or toilet fails, I've got an immediate backup.
I do have low level regret over avoiding DIY. Yes, after accounting for the cost of tools and learning, hiring out work was a financial wash. I freed up my time at zero dollar cost. However, I unintentionally declined a trade of time for tools and skills. It was a missed opportunity to develop in an anti-fragile manner.
On the other hand - I've been using a broken toilet seat for a month. The replacement is sitting in a box a few feet away. I can't be bothered. It gives me very little hope for people changing in general. Especially with the shift away from long term thinking I think many are experiencing.
I am finding where I overspent for premium items or experiences, turns out to have been more valuable IRL than initially expected. Travel, multiple gym memberships, eating out, new car, etc. I feel grateful for having seized hose opportunities while available. It turns out a mentality of - "take the marshmallow today, it might not be there tomorrow" isn't always wrong.
With an increased present focus in my thinking, I am indulging more generously in luxuries. Video games. Alcohol. Junk food. I can already see the novelty wearing off on quantity, but my willingness to pay for quality will persist. The $60 first party game on launch day. The $100 bottle of scotch. The $6 pint of ice cream. Etc. I am much more inclined to get while the getting is good.
saliva droplets are always coming out of people’s mouths while they breathe and talk, whether they’re aware of this or not.
Yes, of course...that is why wear a mask in public, stay a good distance from other people and if in the vulnerable demographic...taken even more precautions.
But let us not shutdown the world till if ever an effective vaccine is found..
Yes, of course...that is why wear a mask in public, stay a good distance from other people and if in the vulnerable demographic...taken even more precautions.
But let us not shutdown the world till if ever an effective vaccine is found..
i believe the point of the shutdowns is to keep us from overwhelming critical care facilities, since the actual death ratio is 1 in 300. not a small number.
it’s not just about culling the old and infirm and disposable either: there are reports of youngish healthy people (ages 30-40) getting what appear to be virus-induced strokes from large vessel obstructions.
turns there are three strains of virus known: a,b, and c. china only ever had b, but we have all three because we like to play virus casino and this slot machine got 3 cherries.
oh, and 10% of children who get infected get it hard too: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-in-babies-and-children
Last edited by Alphaville on Sat Apr 25, 2020 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Not advocating bringing back tight seating or high density situations etc. I'm sure there will be more than 3 variants and also possibly some resurgence in the fall/winter. Currently only hospitals in NY/NJ seemed to have hit capacity bottlenecks.
Not advocating bringing back tight seating or high density situations etc. I'm sure there will be more than 3 variants and also possibly some resurgence in the fall/winter. Currently only hospitals in NY/NJ seemed to have hit capacity bottlenecks.
How long should the shutdown continue?
i don’t know how long the shutdown should continue.
agnosticism is a good thing, and the basis of science.
and yeah i’m looking at updates talking of 30 strains now.
We can apply rational thinking to estimate what kind of risks we’re willing to tolerate, but pretending to know what we actually don’t know, just because of blind belief or wishful thinking, is utterly absurd.
I think the risks estimation and tolerance of 'we' is quite varied at the individual level within the 'we' and lean more towards individuals taking personal responsibility for themselves (and for minimizing externalities to others to the extent possible) versus a centralized decision making approach. Thus virus is not just a science but also a public policy, economy, national security issue (ie multidimensional problem) so in my mind I can't go just by what a Fauci says or conversely a Trump says.
In life we make decisions all the time that place a value on our and other people's lives.
The problem is that a lot of “we” entities minimize externalities to others without a central decision making mechanism intervening, either out of ignorance, lack of regard for others, carelessness, insufficient standards, or any number of factors.
The virus is not just “a science issue,” but science provides the best tools to understand it, not only in the medical context, but also in economics and public policy and national security contexts. “Because I wanna” is not a good decision making tool. Statistics, mathematics and data evaluated by sound reasoning are better tools.
We have been studying epidemics for a very long time in anticipation of crises like this one, but public policy was slow to catch up with the science because the political need to pander to the delusional. Finland, meanwhile, had the central planning smarts to keep extensive stockpiles of emergency supplies. New Zealand took swift action and are now planning to start relaxing restrictions *because they can*. Germany meanwhile has been able to keep mortality lower than average because of extensive testing and a better health system.
Meanwhile, we’re still waffling, protesting restrictions, discussing nonsensical cures, we don’t have enough testing, we don’t have enough medical supplies, and the infection and death rates nationally grown unabated. As of today 54k *confirmed* dead, some 11 or 12 days ago it was 25,000, and that’s not counting all the people who have been dying at home undiagnosed.
The Spanish Flu Pandemic killed about 675 K in the USA. Population of the USA at that time was about 100 million. Works out to a death rate of ~0.7%. Right now our death rate is far below the 1918 tally. A figure of 675 K minus 54 K leaves us with 621 K to go. The Spanish Flu lasted two-three years, so we have a lot of time to close the death gap.
