Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Intended for constructive conversations. Exhibits of polarizing tribalism will be deleted.
Augustus
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by Augustus » Wed Mar 06, 2019 3:31 pm

Nope, totally serious, I think 1000-2000ppm is a much safer level of co2. I've never seen anyone give me an adequate explanation of why 1000ppm is worse than 400ppm. But I sure can give you an explanation of why < 170ppm is REALLY BAD.

If we got it around 1000ppm we'd have a much greater chance of survival as a species. You'd have to move your coastal cities, but considering they've all been built in the last 200 years, that's not really a big deal either. I've moved several times in my life, it's not that bad. Who knows, maybe this time we could build them car free.

Also, please stop with the personal attacks. I'm not disingenuous, I'm not stupid, and I can read, thank you very much. I realize the 70s panic was wrong, my point is that it was a panic, just the way the cause du jour is a panic. Panic sells newspapers, who knew?

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Wed Mar 06, 2019 5:47 pm

We are in the interglacial period of the Quaternary Glaciation. I do not know how attributable the recent warming is to man, although I am sure Dr. Fisker would roll his eyes and instruct me to get a textbook.

I think it is very fragile to try and maintain a homeostasis. That does not mean just keep on doing what we are doing. But China is not going to prioritize reducing emissions over catching up with the US.

We have to embrace the volatility. If that means building cities at higher altitudes, so be it.

I do not know where the line is, between doing what we can to preserve finite resources, and grabbing at the available resources to compete with one another.

IlliniDave
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by IlliniDave » Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:20 pm

Submariners typically live and work in environments with > 3000 ppm CO2. Dunno if it is optimally healthy or not, but they don't drop dead on the spot.

Redo
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by Redo » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:13 pm

While I do agree that government is useless, and carbon taxes are just an excuse to collect more money, climate change is not a hoax. WTF, why is this still a debate? Do people not pay attention to the extreme weather that is worsening in the news? And even if climate change was a hoax, is overpopulation a hoax? Is overconsumption? Is air/water pollution? Microplastics in our bodies as well as every creature in the ocean? Global topsoil running out? Call it climate change, call it whatever you want, we need to fix these issues.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:22 pm

Maybe the solution to overpopulation is a secular humanism that leads to polyamory and the degradation of family values, advanced technology and globalization that leads to a power law distribution of wealth and the cost prohibitiveness of having children, central banking that crushes the spirit of the middle class and exacerbates said power law distribution of wealth, 5G radiation that roasts your testicles makes you infertile and gives you cancer, and doctors that prescribe opioids the minute your back is thrown out from shoveling snow because central banking made it too expensive for the middle class to pay the plow truck guy.

If that doesn’t work, there’s always nukes, smallpox, or a piece of nanotechnology slipped into your brain that makes you lie down in front of a lawnmower.

Redo
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by Redo » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:59 pm

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:22 pm
Maybe the solution to overpopulation is a secular humanism that leads to polyamory and the degradation of family values, advanced technology and globalization that leads to a power law distribution of wealth and the cost prohibitiveness of having children, central banking that crushes the spirit of the middle class and exacerbates said power law distribution of wealth, 5G radiation that roasts your testicles makes you infertile and gives you cancer, and doctors that prescribe opioids the minute your back is thrown out from shoveling snow because central banking made it too expensive for the middle class to pay the plow truck guy.

If that doesn’t work, there’s always nukes, smallpox, or a piece of nanotechnology slipped into your brain that makes you lie down in front of a lawnmower.
That's too easy, too obvious. Almost as obvious as using common sense to have less kids. We need to think outside the box here, we need some new super technology that will break the laws of physics and make the Earth quantum. That way people can have both 0 kids and 100 kids at the same time, we won't have to make any sacrifices.

ZAFCorrection
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by ZAFCorrection » Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:16 am

@iDave

I actually know a guy who was in subs in the navy. He mentioned the oxygen concentration was kept somewhat low in subs and the result is a slight bit of general drowsiness or sedation. I forget the reasoning that he gave; though if I remember correctly his speculation was that a partial reason was keeping people from freaking out. Either way, I hadn't heard that it included elevated CO2 levels.

IlliniDave
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by IlliniDave » Thu Mar 07, 2019 4:25 am

ZAFCorrection wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:16 am
My understanding, which may be faulty, is that the elevated CO2 is the byproduct of a sub being a closed environment for significant stretches with a bunch of people breathing in it, not something that is set "artificially" high on purpose.

7Wannabe5
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Thu Mar 07, 2019 8:25 am

People were fearful, both of this particular bear and of what its presence implied. Not even any of the elders could remember ever having heard of a polar bear near town. Several people at the table vowed to shoot it if it came near town. To Charlie, the explanation was obvious. "They're having trouble finding seals, and they've gotta eat. So they're following the caribou now." He left unsaid a far bleaker possibility that I felt sure was on everyone's mind-that this might be the start of a whole shift in the natural order of things. - Bill Heavey among the Gwich'in natives near Arctic Circle
It's easy to engage in armchair debates about climate change when your lifestyle is n degrees abstracted from core survival resources. It won't really effect any of us until Field Corn 2 goes the way of the seals. Modern farmers are businessmen who have to plan ahead and profit at slim margin over debt load.

Augustus
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by Augustus » Thu Mar 07, 2019 10:24 am

IlliniDave wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 4:25 am
+1 I have a hard time believing that the Navy wants to make it's nuclear attack submarine crews mildly retarded on purpose. Submarine warfare is intense, you need your wits about you.

Riggerjack
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by Riggerjack » Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:52 am

Submariners typically live and work in environments with > 3000 ppm CO2. Dunno if it is optimally healthy or not, but they don't drop dead on the spot.
Sure. But have you met these guys when they get oxygen again? There is no question in my mind that sub boys are more mentally damaged than the typical navy veteran. But I couldn't say how much of that is co2 related.

IlliniDave
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by IlliniDave » Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:14 pm

Riggerjack wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:52 am
Sure. But have you met these guys when they get oxygen again? There is no question in my mind that sub boys are more mentally damaged than the typical navy veteran. But I couldn't say how much of that is co2 related.
Well I did say right in what you quoted that I wasn't making claims about it being optimal or advisable, just survivable (actually C02 on subs gets as high as 10K PPM some follow-up research revealed). While we are making anecdotal amateur psychological/neurological diagnoses of submariners, the few I've known (my university had a program set up for officer candidates similar to ROTC) is that most of them were a bit, er, different, long before getting commissioned and setting foot inside a submarine. There are a lot of psychological factors that go into screening those people, and a lot in that department they have to contend with while at sea. If you think about what some of those subs carry, I'd argue that if there were any evidence that sub environments were substantially impairing crews they'd fix it. Well, at least I'd hope that. :?

Riggerjack
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by Riggerjack » Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:27 pm

If you think about what some of those subs carry, I'd argue that if there were any evidence that sub environments were substantially impairing crews they'd fix it.
:lol:

Maybe your experience with the military is far different than mine. :shock:

The best I would expect is a higher turnover rate. And maybe a little extra oxygen for officer's quarters. Not enough to stop the damage, (or to be noticed by the crew) but enough to reduce it to acceptable levels in career officers.

Long term survival rates are far less important to the military than short term survival rates. "Long term possible impairment? That's a VA/political problem, go talk to them."
While I do agree that government is useless, and carbon taxes are just an excuse to collect more money, climate change is not a hoax. WTF, why is this still a debate?
Because it was tangentially linked to environmentalism, and from there to policy. Thus it is political. And nothing political needs to be in the least truthful.

It's still political because who it affects, and who must pay, can still be lied about with impunity. By both sides.

When far more of my generation (X) are in the ground, it will be safe to blame us for the problem, and it will be as settled as gay marriage is today. Still some residual hostility, but a definite consensus on one side. Then we can start to look at who's interests can be sacrificed.

Any collective action based plan that starts before 2040 is just ignoring how democracy works. As for international cooperation, I see no reason for this to change at all.

At an individual level, climate has always changed, and not allowing for this is just part of our very human pattern of extrapolating the present as a likely view of the future. It works at the evolutionary level.

Until it doesn't. Even then, somebody will make the cut. Humans are less fragile than rats. But civilization isn't.

Redo
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by Redo » Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:06 pm

Riggerjack wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:27 pm
Because it was tangentially linked to environmentalism, and from there to policy. Thus it is political. And nothing political needs to be in the least truthful.

It's still political because who it affects, and who must pay, can still be lied about with impunity. By both sides.

When far more of my generation (X) are in the ground, it will be safe to blame us for the problem, and it will be as settled as gay marriage is today. Still some residual hostility, but a definite consensus on one side. Then we can start to look at who's interests can be sacrificed.

Any collective action based plan that starts before 2040 is just ignoring how democracy works. As for international cooperation, I see no reason for this to change at all.

At an individual level, climate has always changed, and not allowing for this is just part of our very human pattern of extrapolating the present as a likely view of the future. It works at the evolutionary level.

Until it doesn't. Even then, somebody will make the cut. Humans are less fragile than rats. But civilization isn't.
You're only looking at it from the political side. Basically the Democrats and Liberals are using climate change for votes, and the Republicans are denying climate change, also for votes. Both sides of politics are useless, so forget politics. Do you think the climate scientists are lying about this?

Also I don't want to blame baby boomers or Gen X or millennial, it's just a waste of time, I want society to stop screwing around and implement solutions.
Why wait till 2040? You're telling me if an asteroid is about to hit Earth and wipe out billions we should wait till 2040 because...democracy?

I agree that climate has always changed, but this is not natural, they've already concluded that it's due to human activity.

You're right, it's probably true that humanity will survive these upcoming extreme conditions, but what kind of life will they have? I mean we're running out of every resource on the planet (even the materials we use to make solar panels). This kind of lifestyle we currently have, it seems unlikely we will ever get to this level again.

Riggerjack
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by Riggerjack » Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:35 pm

:lol:
You're only looking at it from the political side.
No. I am saying ignore the political side. There are no solutions there.
Also I don't want to blame baby boomers or Gen X or millennial, it's just a waste of time, I want society to stop screwing around and implement solutions.
Lovely. Do you have a plan? If so, I am all ears. Even a historical precedent would do. Simply wanting people to behave differently has a poor track record. Actively forcing people to behave differently has a far, far worse track record, see the whole 20th century for examples.
Why wait till 2040? You're telling me if an asteroid is about to hit Earth and wipe out billions we should wait till 2040 because...democracy?
No. I am saying democracy is very effective at slowly changing to meet new challenges. This is a feature, not a bug. That people don't reason to their opinions, by and large. So reason won't change anyone's mind. People simply espouse the same opinions as their tribe, with few variations. Tribal opinions change at a generational pace. So by making this a political issue, we have ensured no political action until that generational pace has run it's course.
it's probably true that humanity will survive these upcoming extreme conditions, but what kind of life will they have? I mean we're running out of every resource on the planet (even the materials we use to make solar panels). This kind of lifestyle we currently have, it seems unlikely we will ever get to this level again.
I agree. So, given that action seems prudent, and government action in a helpful way seems... Unlikely, what do you propose? For me, it's a clear cut case for individuals to act, individually. This is what I keep bringing up. If you believe we are facing a problem with CC, and understand that a collective solution for 7+billion people is unlikely, what are you doing?

If you don't believe that a collective solution is beyond the capability of our existing systems, why not? I have been looking at this for years, and haven't even heard of an acceptable mass solution, so I am focusing on an individual solution. Best of luck to everyone else.

Redo
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by Redo » Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:32 pm

Riggerjack wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:35 pm
:lol:
No. I am saying ignore the political side. There are no solutions there.

Lovely. Do you have a plan? If so, I am all ears. Even a historical precedent would do. Simply wanting people to behave differently has a poor track record. Actively forcing people to behave differently has a far, far worse track record, see the whole 20th century for examples.

No. I am saying democracy is very effective at slowly changing to meet new challenges. This is a feature, not a bug. That people don't reason to their opinions, by and large. So reason won't change anyone's mind. People simply espouse the same opinions as their tribe, with few variations. Tribal opinions change at a generational pace. So by making this a political issue, we have ensured no political action until that generational pace has run it's course.

I agree. So, given that action seems prudent, and government action in a helpful way seems... Unlikely, what do you propose? For me, it's a clear cut case for individuals to act, individually. This is what I keep bringing up. If you believe we are facing a problem with CC, and understand that a collective solution for 7+billion people is unlikely, what are you doing?

If you don't believe that a collective solution is beyond the capability of our existing systems, why not? I have been looking at this for years, and haven't even heard of an acceptable mass solution, so I am focusing on an individual solution. Best of luck to everyone else.
Alright, I misunderstood about politics.

My plans all involve using common sense:
- We need to have the one child policy worldwide, and tax people who have more than one kid. Also give tax breaks to people who don't have kids.
- Reduce over-consumption, again incentivize buying less through tax breaks.
- Get rid of cars and replace them with public transit buses and trains.

But this will never be implemented because it will break the pyramid scheme system of infinite growth we currently have. Also I'm not a billionaire or a politician, I can't change the world, so what does it matter if I have a plan?

You explained democracy, but I still don't agree with your reasoning with waiting till 2040. People in the same generation can have vastly different ideas and policies, this tribe mentality is less relevant due to the internet. You think that in 2040 all of a sudden the younger politicians will be better, I'm not so sure. If what they say about 2030, or 2 degrees above average, being the point of no return, wouldn't the younger politicians be even more corrupt?

What do I propose? You are right, individuals need to act individually. But people won't just decide to act responsibly out of the blue. Obviously no one is going to listen to a nobody, so I think we need an influential public figure that everyone likes, and have him/her educate the world about what we can do to slow down climate change. We need education about overpopulation and over-consumption. We need to experiment with new world systems that aren't based on infinite growth.

I'm doing what the IPCC recommends: no kids, no cars, no planes, and no meat. In the future, when I'm financially independent, I want to get into permaculture farming. What else can I do individually?

IlliniDave
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by IlliniDave » Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:32 pm

Riggerjack wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:27 pm
:lol:

Maybe your experience with the military is far different than mine. :shock:

The best I would expect is a higher turnover rate. And maybe a little extra oxygen for officer's quarters. Not enough to stop the damage, (or to be noticed by the crew) but enough to reduce it to acceptable levels in career officers.

Long term survival rates are far less important to the military than short term survival rates. "Long term possible impairment? That's a VA/political problem, go talk to them."
Okay, they have a fleet of subs loaded with ICBMs roaming the oceans manned by crews drunk from oxygen deprivation and CO2 poisoning. Sort of makes the climate worries moot. :lol:

Salathor
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by Salathor » Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:46 pm

Redo wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:32 pm
My plans all involve using common sense:
- We need to have the one child policy worldwide, and tax people who have more than one kid. Also give tax breaks to people who don't have kids.
- Reduce over-consumption, again incentivize buying less through tax breaks.
- Get rid of cars and replace them with public transit buses and trains.
A world-wide one-child policy would be absolutely devastating, orders of magnitude more punishing to people worldwide than global warming over virtually any timescale. You and Thomas Malthus would probably have a lot to talk about, though.

EDIT: I realize I may not have explained fully. The modern economic system would be shattered by an aging population (see Japan for a voluntary version of this) and the agrarian society that would HAVE to replace it can't function without labor.

Redo
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by Redo » Thu Mar 07, 2019 8:09 pm

Salathor wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:46 pm
A world-wide one-child policy would be absolutely devastating, orders of magnitude more punishing to people worldwide than global warming over virtually any timescale. You and Thomas Malthus would probably have a lot to talk about, though.

EDIT: I realize I may not have explained fully. The modern economic system would be shattered by an aging population (see Japan for a voluntary version of this) and the agrarian society that would HAVE to replace it can't function without labor.
Yes it would be devastating for the economy. Worse than global warming? I don't know about that. But this damage can be absorbed (through cultural shift), for example in India, children are expected to take care of their parents in old age. This is how it should be, you shouldn't rely on government to bail you out financially in old age. And we won't have to worry too much about labor thanks to automation.

Augustus
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Re: Doug Casy on the Climate Change Hoax Part 2

Post by Augustus » Thu Mar 07, 2019 8:29 pm

I actually agree with Redo, a worldwide one child policy is the only good plan IMO. Devastating to the economy... by what metric? While asset prices would drop, standard of living would rise sharply. I mean think of all the nice homes that would now be vacant, farms and everything else would have to support half the population.

The plan falls apart because no one is willing to vote me in as Dictator of the World though. We'll have to try take over the world again tomorrow Pinky.

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