AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Intended for constructive conversations. Exhibits of polarizing tribalism will be deleted.
Campitor
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by Campitor » Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:24 am

The anchoring effect works both ways. An over the top proposal typically results in an equally extreme counterproposal. Those familiar with these strategies will not be swayed by either. However, this style of negotiation can and does incite strong emotional reactions within the respective teams which can cause gridlock and kill any hope of a deal. And it also causes the extremists in each political party to push out the boundaries which makes it harder to reach a middle of the road compromise. Hello climate deniers and cow fart police.

AOC was a groomed candidate (as most are). She's good when on script but makes a lot of mistakes when off script - hence the accusation that she is the anti-Trump. Is she smart? Probably so. But her style of politicking is odd - she seems more interested in fracturing the democratic party than proposing legislation. It seems that she, and other freshman democrats, are trying to force existing moderate congressmen into a more extreme left-wing platform which is in clear opposition to the desires of the moderates' constituencies. She may win the battle but lose the war. This is similar to Newt Gringich's agenda which pushed a more right-wing platform but led to a 2-term Bill Clinton presidency as they fielded weak candidates who only appealed to far right Republicans.

jennypenny
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by jennypenny » Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:30 pm

In 2013 when the Obamacare exchanges were scheduled to go into effect, Ted Cruz decided to filibuster to try to prevent the process from going forward. That action would normally get a lot of support from Republicans but the word was out that the exchanges were a mess and HHS was totally unprepared. Republican members of Congress with more experience and political savvy were against Cruz's actions because they wanted the exchanges to open and fail without any Republican input. Basically, they wanted the story to be about Obamacare and not Republicans. Cruz, Lee, et al didn't listen and they dominated a new cycle that should have been all about the mess at HHS.

Now in 2019, the Democratic party is desperately trying to win back the White House but AOC and her green new deal are dominating the news cycle ... and she isn't even a candidate in 2020. The Democrats were having trouble finding their talking points with the apparent collapse of the Mueller/Russia narrative, and AOC and her frosh cohort stepped into the void. She practically scooped Jay Inslee's whole campaign platform.

AOC's heart might be in the right place but she's hurting Democrats' chances in 2020. She's putting 2020 candidates in a bind because they'll all be forced to weigh in on her green new deal. That might not seem like a bad thing to many here, but think about how they'll be asked about it at press events ... "Do you support AOC's green new deal?" If they say yes, they'll appeal to the base but turn off moderates. If they say no, they'll have trouble getting the nomination.

Historically, younger voters don't reliably show up to vote on election day. If the Dems pick a platform and candidate that appeal to AOC's younger/more progressive demographic the most, they risk typical low voter turnout amongst younger voters and low turnout from unenthused moderates. If Dems pick someone like Biden, they could have the same issue they had last time with Sanders supporters refusing to support Clinton because she was too 'establishment' in their eyes.

Kriegsspiel
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:55 pm

If the Justice Democrat's intent is to primary Democrats out of their seats, wouldn't it make sense for the Justice Democrats to stay in the news and make the Democrats look bad and hurt their chances to win?

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:59 pm

I thought the Dems lost in 2016 because, besides completely alienating white voters in Rust Belt states, they had a candidate they really were not enthusiastic about, unlike in 2008 and 2012. “Don’t vote for the other guy cuz he’s bad mmmk” did not work out too well.

Hard for moderates to gain traction as the 1% continues to suck up all of the wealth.

Campitor
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by Campitor » Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:15 pm

Moderate and Progressive Democrats almost have equal numbers in the House. Progressives slightly outnumber the moderates: 95 progressives to 90 moderates. There are 24 blue dog democrats (conservatives of the party). The moderates and blue dogs may just team up to pressure a more conservative agenda if the progressives start to threaten their reelection efforts.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... next-year/

IlliniDave
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by IlliniDave » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:56 am

The Dems have two problems with trying to go more centrist.

First , Trump won the election by scooping up some of the main traditional center-left planks (e.g., illegal immigration and job protectionism). Those planks have now been judged racist, xenophobic, fascist, etc., both by Dems and by the MSM (their Ministry of Information). So they can't trot a near-octogenarian out there to stump for stronger borders, orderly immigration, beefing up ICE, US-centric trade arrangements, economic revitalization of Flyover Country, etc., even if that same person was stumping for those same things 6 or 10 years ago. Well, okay, maybe they can, I suppose they could flop back as quickly as they flipped in 2016, but it is going to alienate a chunk of their base they've been riling up for the last two years.

Second is that they welcomed, cheered, and encouraged far-left activism (including that which wasn't entirely peaceful) and I think for this cycle at least they'll have to own it. It was great when it could be giddily spun as a rebuke to Trump/conservatives, but they let it go far enough that the left tail of the Progressive Dems, by virtue of having served as the front line, is in many ways now the face of the party. Maybe they can come up with a way to silence that facet of the party, or convince the media to turn on them; but I think it's likely they overplayed the anti-DT hand and might not be able to get all the horses back in the barn in time to get the doors closed.

Campitor
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by Campitor » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:24 am

@IlliniDave

The fight will be behind the scenes in committees and close door sessions. The moderates and blue dogs will focus more on centrist/moderate policies that serve their constituencies and vote bipartisan when Republican bills benefit their districts. They are the "silent" majority of the Democratic party within the House. You don't hear much from them but their fingerprints are all over bills and resolutions passed. They may on occasion give lip service to progressive ideals but behind closed doors they know what they need to do to keep their seats within moderate/semi-conservative districts.

The progressive know that these moderates stand in their way of banning farting cows and other illogical ideas not based in sound economic principles or facts. This is why progressives are going to battle against the moderates in their party and trying to flip districts into a more progressive electorate. Neither will work because at the end of the day, most people vote for policies and candidates that will not bankrupt them; the voters are not idealogues interested in anti-zionism and economic suicide.

IlliniDave
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by IlliniDave » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:33 am

Campitor,

I hope you are right about the general direction of the party, although I wonder if the behind-the-scenes legislative machinations will have much effect on their presidential nominee, which is what I was thinking aloud about above. Right now it is hard for me to see DT not getting a second term. The caveat to that statement is I never saw him getting a first term, so my predictive powers are nonexistent. :)

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:48 am

Is it not really as simple as whether Orange 45 can carry Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan again? AOC making the blue states bluer, how does this impact an out-of-work rural white voter in Florida or North Carolina?

Augustus
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by Augustus » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:59 pm

Lucky C wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:02 am
By default I would expect any 29 year old "new hire" with no relevant experience to be awful at their job, no matter what the profession. The relevant thing to look for is the capacity to learn.
Um, I don't really want a 29 year old new hire in charge of making decisions that could bankrupt the country and destroy the economy. The person who hired her is the real problem, she was not qualified for the job. Let her be a paige for 10 years until she gets her shit together, then maybe she can work her way up to getting my coffee. I am just not following your line of reasoning about how this is a good thing.

Trump is an asshat, but honestly he makes more rational decisions than AOC. My question is: why are we electing these idiots in the first place? I blame the internet (every idiot now has a voice and the loudest and most outrageous are the most heard, while before you had to play nicely with others to get a platform) and the general dumbing down of the electorate.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:46 pm

Here, we have the petulant Baby Boomers, the original “me” generation, who, not being content having turned the greatest creditor nation in history into the greatest debtor nation in history, are throwing temper tantrums in old age and succumbing to Trumpism.

There, we have the Millenials, picking up the torch of me-ness from the Boomers, inheriting a dreadful financial situation, exacerbating it, and, not having a few centuries of accumulated hard work and a couple of world wars’ worth of victory loot to squander, are saying that socialism is the answer.

Interesting that at the cultural peak of Athens, Socrates described an ideal society much more akin to Sparta in Plato’s Republic.

I would much rather be an American and live in America than live in China (even some of America’s most vociferous detractors sneak across borders to live here) but perhaps one must acknowledge that a republic is just a happy interlude between states of autocracy and anarchy.

Campitor
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by Campitor » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:05 pm

** post removed - it was a duplicate post **
Last edited by Campitor on Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.

jennypenny
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by jennypenny » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:19 pm

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:46 pm
There, we have the Millenials, picking up the torch of me-ness from the Boomers, inheriting a dreadful financial situation, exacerbating it, and, not having a few centuries of accumulated hard work and a couple of world wars’ worth of victory loot to squander, are saying that socialism is the answer.
Millennials might be 'generation me', but that's mostly because of the helicopter parenting and everyone-gets-a-trophy environment they grew up in. It doesn't surprise me that the youngest of them are also onboard with ideas like UBI and medicare-for-all because they came of age after the biggest financial collapse since the depression. We (people older than them) all complain about how the financial system is rigged to benefit the wealthy disproportionately so why would they trust in that system? Why wouldn't they question it? I don't think they have the answers but I'm not surprised they ask those questions.

Pelosi and Biden tried toning down the more extreme rhetoric today and got a lot of pushback. I don't think the old white people in the party should be dictating what the party does. OTOH, they are the ones with experience and who know how to win in 2020. Democrats will have to decide if they are running on principles or running to win. (I know that sounds callous but it's how the game is currently played.)

The Democratic party could end up as fractured as the Republican party was after 2016. Maybe that's what people like AOC want. I guess that lends more credence to the idea of a fourth turning/party realignment in the coming years.

IlliniDave
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by IlliniDave » Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:46 pm

jennypenny, I believe you are correct. Ultimately it is about power and what you might call the "old guard" knows that. I'm referring more to attitude than chronological age: traditional politics versus ideology. The old guard gambled on taking down Trump by non-electoral means and apparently will fail in that endeavor. They embraced whomever they needed to embrace to gain legislative power for that end. Time will tell if there is a price to pay for that, but coming out of the gate the field of candidates is trying to navigate left of Bernie. I don't know if they can get away with dictating the nominee this time. It does seem like a more central candidate might help them this cycle, but it also potentially sets them up to be overthrown from within. That's one thing Socialism is good at and specifically designed to do: overthrow the status quo.

Mister Imperceptible
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:13 pm

@jennypenny

I am a Millennial :D :twisted:

What I mean to say is that it is no surprise to me that, given most take the path of least resistance and are only skin deep, a republic or representative democracy could quite possibly be just an accident, or short period of decades or centuries in flux between states when the few dominate the many, or there is chaos and absence of central control.

We’re only a few centuries removed from feudalistic society and possibly a shorter period away from an authoritarian technocracy.

Lucky C
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by Lucky C » Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:25 pm

Campitor wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:24 am
The anchoring effect works both ways...
Good point. Better to try to avoid extremism. On the other hand it's frustrating that any moderate/reasonable position doesn't get any attention. I'm just glad some politicians are at least trying to push sustainability, even if there are major flaws. Better than nothing?
Augustus wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:59 pm
I am just not following your line of reasoning about how this is a good thing.
I'm sorry if I gave you the impression that I thought a lack of experience was preferable to having experience. I certainly don't see why anyone would prefer that in a position that requires any sort of expertise, and I didn't think I wrote anything to that effect. Instead I tried (and evidently failed) to say that it's better to have someone without experience who can learn and adapt quickly, vs. someone without experience who is a slow learner and stuck in their ways. It seems to me AOC is showing improvement over time, but that could be based on a limited sample size of my own observations and over the long term that pattern might not last. I don't know AOC well enough to guess whether she is "suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect", however I am hopeful that if she is, she can learn her way out of it.

Jason
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by Jason » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:26 pm

AOC both benefits and suffers from being a symbol. The question is how she transitions from symbolic representation to literal representation as the latter becomes more important to her political survival. Kind of like JFK was in the process of doing before his brain matter ended up all over his wife's new dress. She has put herself squarely in the New Deal/Great Society tradition which at least gives her ideological identity. How that translates to actual legislation and how it benefits (or not) the Democratic party is beyond my powers of prediction. However, saying the world is going to end in 12 years even if it's purposeful hyperbole did not seem like the most sober minded thing to say. If she's wrong, the statement will come back to haunt her. If she's right, it will make her Presidential victory in 2032 kind of bittersweet.

Kriegsspiel
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:32 pm

Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:13 pm
What I mean to say is that it is no surprise to me that, given most take the path of least resistance and are only skin deep, a republic or representative democracy could quite possibly be just an accident, or short period of decades or centuries in flux between states when the few dominate the many, or there is chaos and absence of central control.

We’re only a few centuries removed from feudalistic society and possibly a shorter period away from an authoritarian technocracy.
The Roman Republic lasted a few centuries (about 4 and a half).

But to your second point; there was an idea, I believe first voiced by Aristotle or some other Greek, that governments cycle through opposing concepts (paraphrasing):

Benevolent Aristocrats, who naturally crystallize into
Oligarchs, who become so hated they are deposed by enlightened
Democracy, leading eventually to
Rule of the Mobs, which sucks so we get behind a leader, or a
Monarchy, which is eventually overthrown by Aristocrats to restart the cycle.

EDIT


Close! The monarchic heirs inevitably become pieces of shit, and that's when the Aristocrats replace them. It's like 3 categories of government, and within those, the good kind and the bad kind.

the Greek Kyklos.

Salathor
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by Salathor » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:27 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:32 pm
Benevolent Aristocrats, who naturally crystallize into
Oligarchs, who become so hated they are deposed by enlightened
Democracy, leading eventually to
Rule of the Mobs, which sucks so we get behind a leader, or a
Monarchy, which is eventually overthrown by Aristocrats to restart the cycle.
Seems accurate. So the question is, are we in stage 3 or 4? I guess it depends which way you lean.

Jason
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Re: AOC suffering from the Dunning Kruger Effect?

Post by Jason » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:59 pm

As Kriegsspiell stated it was an "idea" floated by the Greeks. Identifying the first democratic society is parlor game but it's hard to go with Athens when they only allowed non-enslaved men to vote. Same with Rome when some attribute its decline to forced citizenship by those it conquered, diminishing a strong national identity. Some say Iceland but that was the first century AD and well, all I know about Iceland is that it is probably the only country in the world that begins with the letter "I" that I would even remotely consider moving to.

On paper it makes sense. I'm trying to think of a society that actually went through an actual metamorphosis like this. Germany?

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