The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

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BRUTE
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by BRUTE »

Jason wrote:
Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:48 am
From NYT Article
pretty absurd. of course it's easy to forget all the other great things that would have happened if so many lives and resources hadn't been wasted in war. it's impossible to tell what they would've been, but it's pretty certain that the world would've been better off.

"discounting the unseen", first lesson of economics.

Jason

Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by Jason »

The subject of this thread is "economic growth" not "let's reflect on what could have been or what will be if human nature suddenly changes and people stopped killing each other." I remember listening to panel discussions with economists noting that the 1998 internet boom was the first 20th century economic growth cycle that was not tied to geo-political conflict. I'm not a financial historian, but my understanding is that you cannot have an informed discussion on economic growth and technological advancement without addressing the issue of the economic benefit caused by either human conflict or the potential of human conflict. It was a common discussion during the Iraqi war i.e. specifically Haliburtun and the privatization of the conflict. It's a common theme through human history and I was under the impression it was basic common knowledge, but having people lifting their petticoats over their heads at the idea that just maybe certain individuals throughout history pushed for the creation and perpetuation of war for economic gain is I don't know, kind of absurd in face of the facts. I mean, we've all heard of the destructive economic consequences to a local community when a military base is closed, no? And the basic fact that the Japanese model that JLF references was built upon post-WW II US war reparations? And that the post WW II US/Soviet conflict was influenced by the Soviets anger at the US's Marshall plan? I don't know, this country was founded on war and it seems its basic economic stability is in large part due its ongoing willingness to get involved in wars.

IlliniDave
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by IlliniDave »

I think the economic stability of the US (insofar as we have it) is tied to adoption of individual sovereignty/property rights as a core value (and the corresponding limiting of government) and the fact that aside from our civil war we've largely managed to avoid being completely immersed in wars for the last ~ 200 years (i.e., big wars haven't happened here). Regarding the former, we seem to be trending away from that core value, and I wouldn't be surprised if beyond some threshold required to maintain sufficient order for an economy to function, economic vibrancy isn't inversely related to the relative size and power of government. Regarding the latter, a good part is luck/geography, but I think the tradition of cultural assimilation plays a role. There's been a dark side to that at times, but we've managed to avoid evolving into a patchwork of different languages and cultures which has helped unify a significant geographic footprint, more so than what you see in comparable swaths of territory in places like Europe and Africa. Of course that tradition is now under attack as well, and while there are many ways the nation can improve, we run the risk of chucking the baby with the bathwater when we get too exuberant about "transformation".

jacob
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by jacob »

George Friedman explains the world set up with geography. The reason the US has maintained sovereignty/never been invaded (in modern times) is that it has two giant oceans on either side, a friendly neighbor to the north and a sofar ineffective one to the south. Thus America has enjoyed a geographic privilege similar to Great Britain making it hard to invade (lowers your cost of defense considerably so you can focus your military on offense) but with even bigger moats wide enough to also prevent air attacks.

As we all know the US has been constantly engaged in war somewhere on the globe for the past 100 years; something which most Americans don't notice in their daily life (there's rarely a draft and never any material hardships). If you ask the average American how many countries the US has military bases in around the world, I bet the average answer will be off by two orders of magnitude :shock: However, aside from a brief and failed foray into nation building with Project New American Century (Bush2 administration), the general geopolitical dea to preserve US hegemony has been to destabilize regions just enough so that no real competitor can arise and challenge the US. This explains the US's rationally weird alliances in the ME. Key here is to prevent Iran (an otherwise natural ally, at least relative to the other ME oilstates) from getting powerful enough to fiddle with the oil markets which are vital to US stability. Same with the coups and countercoups in the Ukraine. Of course, the US doesn't exclusively pursue geopolitical ends. There's also the recurrent humanitarian mission (Kosovo, Somalia).

As such the military effort serves two purposes. Domestically, it's a giant stimulus program generating hundreds of thousands (millions) of jobs. Tons of pork projects. Military bases. Defense sector stock market returns. One might see this as an alternative to a welfare payment ... or an alternative to dumping interest rates. Basically, it creates jobs---like the super-expensive JSF that everybody(*) hates from a practical point of view---that don't directly produce value in people's lives but does provide them with a paycheck so they can buy this value: cars, houses, computers, fancy dinners, ... The international purpose is given above.

(*) I haven't been specifically looking, but I don't recall ever seeing anyone actually liking that aircraft which is a shame.

The "America First" policy is changing this (slowly). With the US trying to pull out, it allows regions to stabilize and the other players, China and Russia, to bring these regions which are geographically nearer and more relevant to them into their orbit. Putin is exerting control over Syria and Ukraine which allows Russia to control the energy situation in Europe (instead of the US which otherwise saw it as an outlet to stabilize its domestic shale gas and reduce the price volatility---if you can export surplus, you've eliminated much of the planning problem). China is making noise in the South China Sea (which is to them what the Carribbean is to the US) essentially trying to (re)establish their own Monroe Doctrine... similar to what the US did to Europe when the Brits began to lose power over their colonies. To some degree this is returning to the Cold War but with 3 instead of 2 players. The regional destabilization will continue because it's very effective (and very clever).

PS: I've also noticed that demopublicans are about equally in favor of this brand of geopolitics---and why not; it keeps wars small albeit constant while maintaining a global market where the US can do business buying resources and selling high-tech, treasury bonds, and (ironically) weapons. However, their means are different; perhaps favoring their constituents? Reds like good old-fashioned invasions with boots on the ground, thus providing lots of employment to the red states which provide most of the man-power for the military. Blues like cruise missiles (now drones) and special force operations, perhaps favoring the blue states which produce most of the tech-oriented GDP. Or maybe that's just a coincidence.

IlliniDave
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by IlliniDave »

Yeah, after getting more/less dragged into two large European wars in the first quarter of that 100 years then defaulting to the lead role in checking communist expansion, the US has definitely gotten into a nip-it-in-the-bud mentality. Defense spending as a fraction of GDP has been trending down for the last 50 years or so, so I'm not convinced the economics are quite as much a driver as the general attitude that we should "do something" about nearly everything. When it comes to certain bad actors and certain strains of terrorism (of which Iran is allegedly a hub) the "something" has unfortunately been military. Maybe there is no avoiding that, but there is a side of me that definitely sides with the libertarians when it comes to isolationism.

https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/sp ... e_Spending

7Wannabe5
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

jacob wrote:Also there's no techno-economic paradigm shift underway comparable to electricity or mass transportation.
I might argue that the Green Revolution was the paradigm shift most responsible for current human population levels, and bio-tech and tech-bio* could quite possibly continue to drive economic growth in the near future.

* For example:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... res-bette/

http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170125 ... out-oxygen

What you are suggesting strikes me as more like:

Image

Naked Mole Rat Utopia

iopsi
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by iopsi »

The decline is not inevitable, the tech for continued economic growth and expansion is already here and it's only a matter of choosing to use it. Molten salt reactors with thorium combined with renewables (especially thermal solar imo) can give us all the energy we need.

Also big space-projects are possible, if countries invest the money to make the needed infrastructure for inexpensive space launch https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-rocke ... ch_methods .

Sure it's not easy and there are technical challenges, but it's all based on already existing knowledge and proven technologies so definitely possible (wish i had the billions to kickstart these projects).

Tho i'm not too optimistic that we will take advantage of this opportunity while we still can.

jacob
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by jacob »

Consider why these technologies have not made it past the conceptual or experimental stage despite many of them having been known for decades. Why haven't they be used to reverse the decline in productivity growth yet?

iopsi
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by iopsi »

It's a question for which i don't have an answer tbh.
I can't know for sure if they are physically possible or not and currently economically viable or not (tho renewables, such as solar thermal, and MSR with thorium are physically possible for sure since they already exist and economically viable too imo).

Maybe there are valid reasons or maybe not. First thing that comes to mind is that so far fossil fuels have served growth well, so there aren't too much incentives for mega-engineering projects or mass adaptations of alternative energy sources (with lower eroei too). Easy growth by fossil fuels + humans don't like to change (especially if it involves huge efforts) = strong addiction to the status quo.

Also the market isn't perfect and neither is the state, our economic valuations might be sorely mistaken since the market is pervaded by failures. Especially for something huge and super long term like a launch loop, who knows how much time it could take to design, build and test a functioning one and then how much time it would take for the investment to pay back (probably more than a human lifetime). What kind of unimaginable projects it could make economically viable, etc.

Anyway my point is that, i don't know for sure but, the fact that these techs haven't been used (or used en mass) doesn't prove that they couldn't work and provide growth with their huge potential, and unknown opportunities.

7Wannabe5
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

jacob wrote:Consider why these technologies have not made it past the conceptual or experimental stage despite many of them having been known for decades. Why haven't they be used to reverse the decline in productivity growth yet?
I saw 2 deer eating grass in front of an abandoned house in Detroit last week.

7Wannabe5
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

It is true that in order for economic growth to continue indefinitely within the confines of the planetary boundaries, eventually the value of all natural resources being inputted would have to fall to zero relative to the value of human technology/ingenuity inputted. However, given that there is some evidence that human females who are educated urban dwellers will tend towards limiting their birth rate to replacement (or less) without further need for coercion, the problem may be limited to something on the order of 10 billion humans @ lifestyle approximating $20,000/capita spending.

So, given that current rate of natural resource depletion/waste dumping is beyond sustainable maximum, and current mean planetary per capita lifestyle spending is approximately $4000, and natural resource usage/waste dumping is to be halved, I would approximate that our level of ingenuity inputted only has to increase by a factor of around 20 within the period of approximately the next 40 years.

Or, another way to look at it, based on notion of planetary level equality and almost wholly independent functioning, would be to divide the acreage of the planet, inclusive of portions of ocean/fresh water, into something like 10 billion pie shaped wedges centered upon urban trading nodes and/or information processing centers, and then imagine each individual capable of converting the resources found upon his or her wedge into lifestyle products/services valued at approximately $20,000/year in 2019 dollars in a sustainable manner absent of any waste dumping outside of wedge.

7Wannabe5
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

IOW, a plan based on distracting humans from having a life or sex by providing them with vivid video game environment will not work because men do not have babies and women do not like video games as much. If you want to distract most young women away from having babies, you have to think about providing them with something that is cute and adorable and requires care like a baby*, something like access to a college education or their own small business**, and something like a shopping trip to Paris***. If you can figure out how to do this within the confines of 1 jacob per year or energy/resource cost budget equivalent to dollar estimation then problem solved! Trying to appeal to what they "should" want instead of these things (for instance well-meant frugal suggestion to wear underwear until it falls apart )will ultimately fail.

*least expensive example of meeting such qualifications for me
[https://www.bluestem.ca/carex-beatlemania.htm][/url]

**this could be accomplished largely through virtual means

***I am currently reading "Ooh, La, La : French Women's Secrets to Feeling Beautiful Every Day" and contemplating how much $$ I need to throw into the kitty towards my very G2 daughter's wedding this autumn. I must admit that just like the Chinese subsistence farming woman who was interviewed by the Italian professor who created the course I took on the topic of systems analysis of food, water and energy cycles, I want my DD to be able to "go to Paris."

oldbeyond
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by oldbeyond »

Geopolitically, I think the US is still pivoting towards Asia. Syria became too costly after the Russians got involved(not worth WWIII) but apart from that I think the US elite is pretty comfortable with the layout of the region. There's now a reasonably strong Shia axis in Iran - Iraq - Syria - Lebanon. There's a Kurdish axis in Iran - Iraq - Syria - Turkey. Now post Khashoggi there's also a greater rift between the Muslim Brotherhood and Wahhabism within Sunni Islam. There are no strongmen left with Pan-Arab pretensions. So basically all regional powers are undermined to some extent. If Erdogan gets to cocky for example, the US can simply "encourage" the Kurds a bit. And all the factions can be played off each other. Russia is definitely acting on it's own, but worst case it'll grab a bit of territory around it's edges, that's largely irrelevant to US interests. Europe can defend itself if it wants to/has to - France's military expenditures alone are about on par with Russia's. That's more a case of European governments being vasalls to the US - why divert precious resources away from politically more lucrative endeavors when you already pay for protection and your master doesn't like you being too autonomous? China is where the real threat lies - in trade, technology and empire. I personally do not believe that Trump dreamed up the troop withdrawals on his own, but that they're tactically about managing Erdogan and strategically about shifting attention to the Asia-Pacific theatre.

Eric B
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by Eric B »

Since the issues of overpopulation and space exploration have come up, I'd like to add my two cents on why colonization can't save us.

~~~~~

The "Bacterium in a Jar" Thought Experiment

Imagine there's a jar with a tiny bit of bacteria in it. Every minute, the population in the jar doubles. It's midnight now, the start of our one-day experiment. At the stroke of midnight the following day, exactly 24 hours from now, the final doubling brings us to a jar that's perfectly full, 100% capacity.

Q: When was the jar half full? (For those who don't like to think in numbers, you work backwards from midnight and divide the 100% population by 2 for every minute before midnight.) When did the bacteria look around and say, "Hey, it's getting kind of crowded in here!"

Now, imagine the bacteria sent out explorers and discovered three new jars of equal size. Hot diggity! That's 4x as much space as they've ever had before!

Q: How long would it be until the new jars are full? (Double the population once a minute to find out.)

~~~~~

The overpopulation problem can never be solved with more space to inhabit. The real problem is that we as a species engage in exponential population growth, just like the bacteria in the jar. "It took over 200,000 years of human history for the world's population to reach 1 billion; and only 200 years more to reach 7 billion." (quote from Wikipedia)

iopsi
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by iopsi »

For overpopulation it's not a solution, with that i agree. But in terms of getting abundance of materials and energy, it is a (very long term) potential solution with space based solar and moon mining.
Launch loops should make SPBS economically viable and incidentally they can function as power loops http://launchloop.com/PowerLoop (well it's the opposite actually), which are perfect for inexpensive massive energy storage (which is needed if we are going the renewable route for global energy needs).

None of this is easy but it's not impossible either.

jacob
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by jacob »

Speaking of yeast in jar, or the reindeer on St. Matthew island (true story), I'll note that for humans, unless economic growth is really fast (in the 5%+) range, it translates into population growth and not standard-of-living growth. Another way of saying that is that if growth is slow enough, humans have time enough to add more people and so will chose to do that (more of the same size pie slice in a bigger pie) rather than increase their own welfare (elect large slices in a larger pie). It's only if growth is so high that procreation can't keep up that the human lot is improving. Otherwise GDP grows about as fast as population => GDP/population grows very slowly.

Extreme high levels of growth have historically happened by adding a new lower EROEI energy source (e.g. the increasing discovery of oil following WWII) or radically transforming society to a new form of productivity, e.g. China's transition from agriculture to manufacturing in recent decades.

With increasing level of women's education (the last low-hanging productivity fruit?), this may change. The problem is that the mothers of the girls growing up now still had a lot of children and even if they're educated enough to prefer less children, there's still a lot of potential mothers growing up now---so many that they would need radically different ideas about family-size/form than their parents in order to make an impact. Also, in order to realize that children are a cost rather than a benefit, a society has to exit the agricultural stage. This may be tricky because the world has already overshot its pollution sinks and so would have to find another socio-techno system where land and capital is worth more than labor.

BRUTE
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by BRUTE »

there is no overpopulation. what are humans talking about. this planet is mostly empty.

oldbeyond
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by oldbeyond »

Is really most of the world stuck in an Malthusian trap like that?

Sub-saharan Africa seems to be* but that seems rather the exception. World population is growing at around 1%, with the world economy growing at 3.5% or so. US GDP per capita is about 2.5 times higher today than 50 years ago, in sync with most of the first world. China's population is not growing at anything close to (the apparently dismal) 6% that it's economy manages. It seems rather to me like the world at large, and especially the more developed countries, is choosing bigger slices over more people(with quite a few countries experiencing falling population), with some very poor countries(mostly Sub-saharan Africa and some countries in MENA/South Asia) pursuing high population growth**.

* https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY ... cations=ZG
** https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... rowth_rate

jacob
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by jacob »

Presently yes, but the investments required to bring CO2, soil, and water levels back to a point where the agricultural system retains the ability to support the current population has not been paid for yet. Essentially, the world at large is borrowing pies from the future. Put it another way ... it's confusing running up one's credit cards with having an actual income. Not only do the cards have to be paid back, but after doing so, another form of income has to be found to continue at the same income level.

PS: That is literally the problem that many pension systems currently have.

7Wannabe5
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Re: The End of Economic Growth Is Inevitable. Let’s Plan for It.

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

At 10 billion population, there will be at best 1.5 acres of habitable land and another 1.5 acres of desert or mountain per human. That might seem more than adequate to a very cuddly young fellow like BRUTE, but it makes grouchy old me feel kind of cramped.

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