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Civil War in France

Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:01 am
by Jean
I don't know if you have followed the news in France, but the situation seems likely to become very violent and chaotic. A lot of people are ready to take the presidential palace. The WHOLE (every single policeman) police force of the country is going to be mobilised on next saturday. The police itself seems to support the protests, but CRS seems to be loyal to the government. There is a lot of anger against the government and its press.
There is also a racial compound in this, because protester are very white, the goverment and press are very jewish, and the brown minorities seem to be taking advantage of the chaos to create independant enclaves (a protest against drug dealers was literraly shut down by drug dealers themselves).
The position of the army is divided, with some general (De Villiers notably) who might want to seize the power for themselves (worst case scenario in my opinion, besides nuclear plants malfunctioning due to lack of something), and some who sincerely support the protest.
It is very difficult to predict what will happen, but I wouldn't wan't to have anything invested in France now If I wasn't French.
The government is trying to have the movment tire out, but I don't think it will work. It is still growing, and the government already seems to be on full force against it. I don't see how it could work out without dammages. + it's winter, so turning off nuclear plant preventivly isn't really possible.

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:24 am
by The Old Man
https://youtu.be/1sPquv3vIRY
Rebel Media is covering it. How accurate are they?

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:56 am
by tonyedgecombe
The protesters looked well fed to me, I don't think they are hungry enough for civil war to break out. The government will make some small concessions and the whole thing will fizzle out.

@TheOldMan Rebel Media want to stoke this fire, I would take what they say with a pinch of salt.

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:08 am
by TheWanderingScholar
Macron just pulled back on the fuel tax hike and is talking to the leaders of the protest. Seriously, you are freaking out waaay too much about his. I agree with toneyedgecombe, the government will make concessions and the world will go on. And don't forget local businesses are losing money because of this, so time is against the protest honestly.

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:58 am
by vexed87
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... ay-reports

This is less about the 'eco'tax itself, rather about what it represents. An unequal distribution of the proceeds of society and a tax that disproportionately effects the poorest the hardest. The well to do shrug off a €0.04 increase on a litre of fuel, those on the breadline do not. I suspect the movement might not be over just yet, but only time will tell. Inequalities can only be pushed so far before somethings snaps in the collective psyche. Is France there yet? Who knows, I await Saturdays news reel!

We will be seeing frustrations spilling out into the streets more and more frequently as the energy crisis unfolds. This is only the beginning of social breakdown in Europe imo.

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:02 am
by Jean
Macron didn't pull back, he just delayed the tax increase for a few month, and the meeting he's organising is a joke (2 "representative, selected how? and political party leaders.....). People are still eating. But some have trouble with heating. A lot of people are on the edge regarding money, and they don't really have options. Rent, heating car, food and taxes eat it all. Of course, people living at eight people in one house would solve it, but institutions are wasting so much money on themselves (government workers and journalists have a lot of advantages=, that asking the population to make an effort only grows anger. Most people seem to have gone angryer here since the government tried to make concessions. It maybe won't escalate to civil war. But this is serious.
Rebel media seems accurate compared to other images i've seen of the protest (i'm in switzerland).
The only thing Macron could do, is give up power in a way it will be distributed again, anything less (passing the power to an other representant of the people he represents) wouldn't do it in my opinion.

I mostly agree with this person
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Je1zkYjwPs

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:19 am
by The Old Man
https://youtu.be/MCRaG0Q2QhE
Another assessment of the French situation. This one by The Duran.

Is the current situation approaching 1968 or is 1958 (fall of the 4th Republic and the rise of de Gaulle) a closer approximation? According to the video the recent elections saw some electoral doctoring to bring Macron to power, so he lacks legitimacy. The likely contender was a conservative which however was in favor of reforms that "The Establishment" did not like, so electoral shenanigans to bring in someone they liked. The eventual outcome may be the end of the current government and the rise of le Pen.

I am trying to follow as I see France as a bellwether for Europe in general.

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 3:54 pm
by Noal
Many of my most cherished summer memories from growing up involve watching the Tour de France. Although the memories are likely exaggerated by time, French people forcefully protesting was as much a part of the show as the yellow jersey :lol:

There won't be a civil war in France.

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:00 pm
by stoneage
I'm french living in France.

What people see on TV is a fraction of the reality. A lot of the protests happened in the countryside, which is unusual.
85-90% of those protests was people blocking traffic. They gave up on doing that a week ago and are mainly getting together drinking coffee, eating croissants and gathering around paletwood fire at the closest big crossroad or roundabout.

However, there is indeed civil unrest in big cities, with poor neighboorhood, antifa and far right rioters spreading havoc (not together), and violent protests.

The situation last week was NOTHING close to 1968. At the time a nationwide strike litteraly froze the country.


Here is the deal :

Macron has a legitimacy issue, but there was no real doctoring during elections. He was the choice by default, because he wasn't scary or corrupt :
- left wing candidate was scary to right wing voters,
- right wing candidate was downright corrupt,
- and far right candidate was scary to everyone except far right activists.

Some people feel their vote was robbed and realize the guy is increasing taxes for everyone except the 1% (there was a tremendous cut on wealth taxes) and is downright offensive or derogatory towards poor people.
Tax raises on diesel was the just the "last straw".

Now, The government did everything wrong by not conceding anything quickly. What they granted was too little, to late. Delaying taxes was just adding insult to injury, and will sustain the anger for the time of the 6 months delay.

Macron was yesterday in a relatively small town and his car was pursued by protesters, booed and insulted. The guy did not adress the nation for nearly a month and sent the prime minister as a puppet instead of owning it.

I think the situation will eventually settle down, if he does not act stupid. Sending the military against protesters would be the worse.

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:06 pm
by Campitor
stoneage wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:00 pm
...realize the guy is increasing taxes for everyone except the 1% (there was a tremendous cut on wealth taxes) and is downright offensive or derogatory towards poor people....
How did he justify the tax cut on the 1% and what effect did it have on the French economy and tax revenues?

Sorry to hear about the damage caused by the protests. :(

Eating croissants while socializing around a pallet wood fire? Seems like the French do everything with panache - including protesting. ;)

I wish you and your country peace and prosperity. :)

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:37 pm
by Jean
He didn't justify it. He is extremly arrogant an illegitime. This looks closer to 1789 than 1968. He made his career at Rotschilds' before being propeled in politics. He is a Strog Scout preparing invasion of earth.

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:53 pm
by stoneage
Campitor wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:06 pm
How did he justify the tax cut on the 1% and what effect did it have on the French economy and tax revenues?
Justification was trickle-down theory mainly.
The taxes cut were approx 4 billions €, while last diesel tax increase represented ...approx 4 billions. So no impact on tax revenues, but some could not swallow it.

Then again, that is just the spark that started it all.
Eating croissants while socializing around a pallet wood fire? Seems like the French do everything with panache
Yeah, it seems nice, but it is not all that rosy and friendly...
They seem unable to elect representatives to express political views.
There is a deep and profound anger without much to channel it.
vexed87 wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 9:58 am
We will be seeing frustrations spilling out into the streets more and more frequently as the energy crisis unfolds. This is only the beginning of social breakdown in Europe imo.
definitely.

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:20 am
by Lillailler
stoneage wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:00 pm

I think the situation will eventually settle down, if he does not act stupid.
On the other hand, it is acting stupid got him where he is, so what are the odds that will change? (compare UK's T. May)

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:13 am
by stoneage
Lillailler wrote:
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:20 am
On the other hand, it is acting stupid got him where he is, so what are the odds that will change? (compare UK's T. May)
I can imagine fear and self-preservation instinct kicking in. These can be good motivation for change.
Yesterday night he contradicted his prime minister one hour after the poor lad made a speech in front of parliament about delaying the taxes for 6 months. He said fuel taxes are now gone for 2019.
So he continues to act stupid, but in the right direction.

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:40 am
by vexed87
In the UK, fuel duty has been frozen since 1999. Every year there are murmurings that it will be unfrozen and continue its rise, but that can is always kicked. Increasing the cost of fuel damages the economy and hits the poor where it hurts, dampening growth. Its crazy that on the one hand we have heavily congested roads, an air pollution crisis, an obesity crisis and associated healthcare costs, and the proven examples of how to reduce all these problems, walking and cycling infrastructure, and to a lesser extent, buses, rail and trams are all in receiving real term cuts in spending from their previously pitiful levels, the transport/health/food system crisis will continue until the mechanisms that support them collapse.

In the UK growth seems to always trump all genuine social concerns.

I suspect Macron has now fallen into the same trap as the UK government, and the can will get kicked again in 2020.

I wonder if carbon taxes in Canada were more palatable to the masses because of the lower cost of living, or better social welfare systems? It wouldn't slide in the UK because the cost of austerity on the poor has been pushing many into extreme poverty, debt, drug abuse and reliance on food banks, fuel duty hikes would be another nail in the proverbial coffin.

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:46 am
by Jean
They are deploying wheeled tanks.

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:38 am
by Jean
The army is moving troops. There was a mass arrest in a high school (146 minors), looks like training session to me. Some drug dealer controled suburb are effectively seceding.

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:01 am
by RealPerson
People are obviously upset, but as long as they are dipping their fresh baked perfectly flaky croissants in their cup of coffee with the right amount of crema, there is not going to be a revolution. They still have too much to lose. Most people value their current comfort more than an unpredictable civil war.

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:44 am
by Kriegsspiel
RealPerson wrote:
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:01 am
People are obviously upset, but as long as they are dipping their fresh baked perfectly flaky croissants in their cup of coffee with the right amount of crema, there is not going to be a revolution. They still have too much to lose. Most people value their current comfort more than an unpredictable civil war.
The French love revolutions, don't be so culturally insensitive.

Re: Civil War in France

Posted: Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:49 am
by Jean
Croissants are becoming unafordable to many frenchs.