apocalyptic techno-optimism

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classical_Liberal
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by classical_Liberal »

@jacob
No offense, but I think it was just a bad idea in the sense that learning a specific skill isn't something where there is a lack of available information. No matter how obscure the art, there is someone on the interweb who's an expert that is willing to teach. I wanted to learn to make pemmican a couple days ago and found several youtube tutorials... one of the guys even dressed up in costume while making it! Are you gonna dress up like a 18th century carpenter? :P

Anyway, my point is that people will have individual preferences for learning skills, and each persons strategy may have different reasons for learning the same things. Hence need to approach it differently. So, I'm not sure a learning tribe is going to be in demand given the current availability of information and the individualistic nature of most folks here (like @ZAFs response).

I think the benefit in interdependence at the ERE level is in personal preferences and talents. If someone here has a talent and preference to use that talent which can augment my system, and I have something that augments a third players system, etc... Better to learn to work together before we begin to lose the ability to simply "buy" the solution to our nonprefences/nontalents. It's also better than simply DIY when you don't like that particular DIY or suck at it.

Also for those of us who actually like spending some time in community settings. Even for the vast majority of INTJ's some time around like minded people can be psychologically beneficial. For the minority of non introverts (me) it's essential.

Anyway, I'll reread that part of the book, I don't seem to remember it right now.

@alphaville
Yeah, I know what you mean. This is why i think a loosely coupled ERE community (ie the forum) works pretty well. But trying to progress it any further is difficult, particularly with such an introverted, individualistic crowd. I'm really not sure if there is a good path forward to what I mention above. I just think it's be great :D , if it can be made to work :lol:

classical_Liberal
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by classical_Liberal »

Jean wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:28 pm
The conclusion is that if "follow your true self" can sometimes be a terrible advice at an individual level, it is in the groups best interest that you do so...
There will always be some parts that no one wants to do. This has to be handled either through capitalism or socialism. (ie share the burden or reward someone for doing it). However, the vast majority of things are areas where someone wants to, and someone else doesn't want to. Where one person is "great" and another "poor". This is what I mean by ERE benefiting from interdependence.

Alphaville
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Alphaville »

classical_Liberal wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:41 pm
@alphaville
Yeah, I know what you mean. This is why i think a loosely coupled ERE community (ie the forum) works pretty well. But trying to progress it any further is difficult, particularly with such an introverted, individualistic crowd. I'm really not sure if there is a good path forward to what I mention above. I just think it's be great :D , if it can be made to work :lol:
a collective of individualists works well for individualists (we help each other solve problems) but it won’t have large social effects in the short run.

if you want to make big social change it’s either growing grassroots or you convince a politician or both. re: peak oil, maybe grassroots bicycling culture gets coupled with bike paths at the city level (that you lobbied for) coupled with bike path grants at the state level, all coupled with tighter federal emissions standards and clean energy incentives and nonprofit science prizes for various tech goals, and health insurance discounts if you’re a bicycle commuter. that gets you somewhere. and city planning/zoning/etc. have to be a part of it because suburbia was built for cars. it’s a massive scale, but if you want grassroots alone, then great patience is required.
Last edited by Alphaville on Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

daylen
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by daylen »

jacob wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:57 pm
This is because I don't yet believe that there are sufficient "individual parts" in the world to even begin to put them together into stronger wholes.
I have thought a lot about this, and I have never been able to imagine what these stronger wholes could look like. I always manage to think up some kind of contradiction or flaw which eventually results in an instability. I am curious how your priors have developed on this? Seems there are only three possible outcomes in the 100-200 year range:

1. Human population collapse
2. Human population replacement by GAI
3. Dystopia enabled by a certain combination of tech

Not to say we shouldn't make efforts to improve or at least ease our situation before then. Helping one person at a time is still meaningful if you frame it that way.

classical_Liberal
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by classical_Liberal »

@alphaville
To clarify, I'm not looking to solve the worlds problems. Just trying to think in terms one micro step from ERE as an independent individual.
Last edited by classical_Liberal on Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Alphaville
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Alphaville »

classical_Liberal wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:56 pm
@alphaville
To clarify, I'm not looking to solve the worlds problems. Just trying to think in terms one micro step above ERE as an independent individual.
oh! im trying to not get killed by drivers :lol:

classical_Liberal
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by classical_Liberal »

Ahh you quoted me before I changed it! Above--->from. Above seemed conceited given how great ERE individually is for me. Different is probably a better word. Anyway carry on....

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Jean
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Jean »

classical_Liberal wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:49 pm
There will always be some parts that no one wants to do. This has to be handled either through capitalism or socialism. (ie share the burden or reward someone for doing it). However, the vast majority of things are areas where someone wants to, and someone else doesn't want to. Where one person is "great" and another "poor". This is what I mean by ERE benefiting from interdependence.
Chasing rewards following orders, or avoiding disagreable event is some people's (to some extent everyone's) true self.
But it means that things will get done only if it is in some's emerging structure's (an individual human, or a group of them) nature to do it.
If we think something that isn't done should be done, and that we cannot do it ourself, the only way is to change the condition so that a group doing it will emerge.
To my knowledge, this is done by only two means, inventing a new technology, or destroying the ressources needed for an existing technology.
So to take the example of climate change, we don't need a technology that solve climate change (they already exist), but we need a technology that will make emerge a social structures that solves it.
I cannot think that far.

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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by jacob »

classical_Liberal wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:41 pm
@jacob
No offense, but I think it was just a bad idea in the sense that learning a specific skill isn't something where there is a lack of available information. [...]

I think the benefit in interdependence at the ERE level is in personal preferences and talents. If someone here has a talent and preference to use that talent which can augment my system, and I have something that augments a third players system, etc... Better to learn to work together before we begin to lose the ability to simply "buy" the solution to our nonprefences/nontalents. It's also better than simply DIY when you don't like that particular DIY or suck at it.
The "Learning" was supposed to be the carrot. The actual goal would be the "Tribe". The tribe would create the desired interdependence and presumably also create skills rather faster than one can do on one's own watching youtube videos. (Also there are many things that can't be learned from reading or watching, but that's a tangential point). Insofar the "tribe" turns into "temp agency" for systems vacancies or an "evening school for selective learning", I'd consider it a failure in the same way that this forum is failing when treated like a "hotel" rather than a "club".

I don't have any better ideas for carrots. Anyhoo, it's more likely that community will be formed along existing lines rather than forming an entirely new one along ERE. Not impossible, but more likely.

classical_Liberal
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by classical_Liberal »

@jacob
Yeah, I didn't mean to totally poo poo your idea about learning tribe idea. Sorry if I hurt your feelings. I certainly get that in person instruction, with the right tools available to learn is superior to reading/youtube videos. I guess I didn't realize how you had it thought out in a carrot/hidden benefit way. I just meant that with the geographic seperations of most members here, in person learning is asking a lot when there are other mediums. I certainly grok the advantage of trying to build a tribe, if it isn't obvious.
jacob wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:14 pm
Insofar the "tribe" turns into "temp agency" for systems vacancies or an "evening school for selective learning", I'd consider it a failure in the same way that this forum is failing when treated like a "hotel" rather than a "club".

Anyhoo, it's more likely that community will be formed along existing lines rather than forming an entirely new one along ERE.
I'm not sure I grasp what you mean here and am curious.

Alphaville
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Alphaville »

classical_Liberal wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:01 pm
Ahh you quoted me before I changed it! Above--->from. Above seemed conceited given how great ERE individually is for me. Different is probably a better word. Anyway carry on....
that’s okay, “above” in levels of social organization makes sense and it does not imply arrogance.

AxelHeyst
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by AxelHeyst »

jacob wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:14 pm
Anyhoo, it's more likely that community will be formed along existing lines rather than forming an entirely new one along ERE. Not impossible, but more likely.
This is why I try to tell all my IRL friends about ERE, and take some pains to do it 'gently' and not scare them off with Wheaton +2+ crazy talk. I want to infect my existing community with ERE.

classical_Liberal
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by classical_Liberal »

ohhhh :idea:

@AH's comment makes me understand...

Yeah, I have no IRL friends that come close to a WL that I'd be able to openly communicate this stuff. I can "carrot" them into the idea of FI, although skeptical, they're mostly at the WL 2 "the proverbial million" on finances. Definitely all techno-optimists when it come to the problems. Although some of them will make token environmental efforts if it's not too much trouble. So, I have no outlets for this stuff outside of this forum and the GF to some degree.

Alphaville
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Alphaville »

classical_Liberal wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:56 pm
@alphaville
To clarify, I'm not looking to solve the worlds problems. Just trying to think in terms one micro step from ERE as an independent individual.
sorry to requote and reanswer this, but i should add, separately— wasn’t ERE about solving world problems after all?

i think i remember i understand that @jacob is trying to create backup generators/survival networks for the inevitable collapse (this more or less interpreted by me) which is why i see it’s enough for him to transmit this person to person.

me i’d rather we avoid collapse and the ensuing carnage altogether. not sure if achievable or to what extent... because in a way we’ve already begun.

(btw i use metaphors indiscriminately, and by “not getting killed by a driver” i meant it in both the narrow and broad sense: get killed in traffic/get killed by climate change & oil dependence. and by “me” i meant everyone else really, because i’ll be a goner one way or another. also i don’t mean backup generators literally—i mean people who will sustain the future.)

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Ego
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Ego »

classical_Liberal wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 3:48 pm
I guess what I'm hoping for is less than a grand eutopia. I'd like to start with just having enough people with similar life strategies to work with, making the whole stronger than the individual parts.
The billionaires were asking Rushkoff for tools to control the people they will need to perpetuate their billionaire lifestyle after the regular market incentives collapse. His second article is about the work-from-homes, the retired and other Covid winners who are beginning to realize a similar existential terror as they watch a few police forces retreat from confronting chaos. Suddenly their minds are racing with the prospect of going it alone at a time when they don't know their neighbors and gun stores have waiting lists to make appointments to place orders for 2022 delivery.

Looking to the past, markets appeared in every time of chaos and adapted rapidly to fast changing environments. Markets have the emergent properties you are looking for and that emergence creates novel solutions to rapidly changing problems. Markets are not only modes of exchange, they are relationships and solutions.

The highest rated plumber on yelp and youtube videos won't help when your main line bursts in the middle of a pandemic and the plumbing supply houses are closed. Knowing individual plumbers, having their personal cell numbers and having personal connections with them, knowing what motivates them and knowing how to ask if they have any friends who can get parts out the back door... that is the finesse that the billionaires and the WFHs lost when they purchased solutions rather than built relationships.

Every interaction is an opportunity to plant the seed and fertilize those emergent properties.

horsewoman
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

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AxelHeyst wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:48 pm
This is why I try to tell all my IRL friends about ERE, and take some pains to do it 'gently' and not scare them off with Wheaton +2+ crazy talk. I want to infect my existing community with ERE.
That's my evil Masterplan as well and I'm seeing some "ripples" on the water already :P
it ties in somewhat with what @jean wrote, just live it unapologetically and people will take notice. If you furthermore manage to explain the "why's" to your "how's" without becoming preachy or going off to far in terms of Wheaton levels, you can make a real difference - on a small scale, but I'm idealistic enough to believe that this is better than doing nothing at all.

ZAFCorrection
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by ZAFCorrection »

@Ego

Maybe ERE is the ultimate WFH, but the best escape hatch is also being hashed out currently in Housing Questions.

Wheaton levels are commonly thrown around as a justification for why it is too painful to deal with regular folks. I would reiterate that competency is multi-dimensional and there are probably a few subjects one is sufficiently uneducated about to serve as a path to talking with people.

Lemon
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Lemon »

Ego wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:40 pm
Every interaction is an opportunity to plant the seed and fertilize those emergent properties.
I agree. But a lot of seeds don't germinate and the payoffs are not predictable.

Thats tough if you find socialising draining and makes skills seem an easier bet.

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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by jacob »

daylen wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:52 pm
I have thought a lot about this, and I have never been able to imagine what these stronger wholes could look like. I always manage to think up some kind of contradiction or flaw which eventually results in an instability.
Currently, community-wise, society is atomized to the point of singles and nuclear families with some extensions towards friends and extended family. Lets call that "your community" (even if it's too small to merit the label). Beyond that everything is handled at arms-length transactions involving monies. Since most are highly specialized, it's unlikely that "your community" is independent of the economy. That is the first point. For example, more than half of the people in "my community" are salaried shufflers of administrative forms in other people's systems. The second point is that many current community members have dependencies or liabilities. Maybe debt or chronic lifestyle diseases that could be fixed with "smarter living". Essentially, many "communities" are made out of "weak ingredients" because the arms-length economy allows this and in many cases even actively encourage it by advertising and selling "comfort" solutions like cigarettes, cars, processed convenience foods, etc.

Ideally, I envision somewhat larger communities than the current nuclear family+extended family around the country/world around the 50-150 count (Dunbar) not necessarily all linked by DNA as is [mostly] the case now. Some places have this in the sense of literal football [fan]clubs. Others have a pub community or maybe they've heavily integrated the street they live on. However, in the current system such communities would still suffer from the "weak ingredient" problem that leads people to think that "hey, maybe I could do better than this" leading them to leaving the community and creating a resource and brain drain.

The instability in this is of course that this might be asking too much of human wetware. People are satisficers, not optimizers and most will do the minimum part required by the greater system (currently "the economy"). In the developed world "tech" makes the minimum part very very easy to accomplish. (The developing/undeveloped world is where you find the open sewers, tailing pits, smog, ... so they're willing to put in more effort if there's any possibility of getting out.) As such "self-improvement" (achieving higher WLs) is mostly seen as a crazy/extreme hobby afforded by privilege and mostly pursued by people with surplus whether that be money, time, education, or intelligence. However, I don't think these surplus-types are a requirement to actually reach high WLs rather they are required to "stand out" and blaze new trails. The high WLs are not inherently more difficult than the low WLs. It's the retraining/rethinking that is hard given that human wetware for the most cases do NOT allow the brain to hold two apparently contradictory ideas simultaneously. It is this rethinking/retraining that requires surplus intelligence, money, ... otherwise it just doesn't happen.

Thus far, I'm still working on single ingredients. Community-wise, I have two and neither is optimal. This forum is comprised of strong ingredients but the community is mostly weak. We can do meetups and individually visit each other but not much more than that. (I do consider this a big step beyond the no-community level though!). Then there's the family+neighbors+local craftsmen which I've also worked on---this is what Ego is talking about in the sense of developing local relationships beyond "hello/goodbye" rather than just relying on yelp and other apps. However, the ingredients here could be stronger because WLs are generally average.

Alphaville
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Re: apocalyptic techno-optimism

Post by Alphaville »

jacob wrote:
Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:50 am

Ideally, I envision somewhat larger communities than the current nuclear family+extended family around the country/world around the 50-150 count (Dunbar) not necessarily all linked by DNA as is [mostly] the case now.
like this?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miccosukee_Land_Co-op

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