Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

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ZAFCorrection
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Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by ZAFCorrection » Wed May 15, 2019 1:32 pm

I remember the issue of abortion was one of those things that would generate nasty debates on the internet even back before the late aughts when everything turned in to the culture war. That being the case, and given that the morality of it is trivial/indefensible to people of same/different philosophical frameworks, there's no point in discussing it specifically. In any case, with the forum being significantly dude, or at least affluent enough to travel to places with reproductive services, there probably aren't many people here who have a lot of skin in this particular game.

But what is interesting is Alabama's straight attack on Roe v. Wade with their abortion ban. I guess with the supreme court being such as it is, there is a good chance it will be overturned. From my understanding, overturning that decision and allowing states to do as they want will not be a huge change from what is happening currently. Getting an abortion in my (conservative) state is already challenging, and a quick perusal at Alabama's status is that they have also been chipping away at abortion access in recent decades. For people who can't afford to travel, it is already the case that they can't get abortions in many conservative states*. So abortion bans would mean that instead of getting through waiting periods, "education," and driving four hours to the one or two providers who could give you an abortion in your state, you just go to another state.

*It's a bit outdated, but here's a good map showing hoop jumping laws https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ma ... -by-state/

Politically, it seems overturning Roe v. Wade would be a huge "symbol" to everyone, energizing the fight on both sides. Maybe the pro-life people would next shoot for a federal ban. That would have a real effect in terms of abortion access, but it does not seem politically viable. My guess is this is going to be another super wedge issue such as has been the case with Donald Trump (e.g. never date a Trump supporter). I think an interesting evolution on previous super wedge issues is that this will be tied more specifically to particular states over time (e.g. never date someone who is from Alabama and doesn't want to leave). We might be seeing the beginning of the return of true sectionalism.

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unemployable
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Re: Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by unemployable » Wed May 15, 2019 2:10 pm

You could be like Alyssa Milano and go on a sex strike. That'll show 'em!

ZAFCorrection
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Re: Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by ZAFCorrection » Wed May 15, 2019 2:22 pm

But going on a sex strike would be much more effort than tossing out one-liners.

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Ego
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Re: Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by Ego » Wed May 15, 2019 2:40 pm

I'm in Romania right now. Back in the 90s after Ceausescu was executed I remember news reports about the plight of the half-million children who had been abandoned into orphanages in the country.

At the time little was said on American television about the reasons why so many children had been abandoned. This was the same time the Berlin Wall was falling so I guess we just assumed the cause was poverty .

Turns out contraception and abortion were illegal under Ceausescu. If they got pregnant women had no choice. As a result there were more unwanted children than the system could handle.

ZAFCorrection
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Re: Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by ZAFCorrection » Wed May 15, 2019 2:54 pm

Definitely a risk of abortion bans, but it does not seem like a near-term risk (neglecting the possibility of a federal ban) given the already-high barrier to entry in states that would ban abortion. For instance, if you live in southern Utah, you already go to Las Vegas for your needs, because it's just as close or closer than Salt Lake and you don't also have to jump through the other hoops. In practical terms, a statewide ban would be meaningless to that chunk of the population.

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C40
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Re: Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by C40 » Wed May 15, 2019 3:19 pm

I don't really understand how this works.

As I understand it:
1 - The Roe-Vs-Wade verdict in 1973 said that abortions must be legal up until 20 (or 24?) weeks of pregnancy
2 - Various states have now said abortions are illegal at less time or are just basically 100% illegal (like Alabama)
3 - If Roe-Vs-Wade is overturned, the states can all decide on their own entirely

Is this right? To me, it seems like #2 can't happen before #3. (?). Or, is that just how laws and court decisions work?


Whatever it is that is happening or not happening, I'm now more motivated to get that vasectomy I've been wanting for some years.

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unemployable
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Re: Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by unemployable » Wed May 15, 2019 3:21 pm

ZAFCorrection wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 2:22 pm
But going on a sex strike would be much more effort than tossing out one-liners.
Well no state I know of is attempting to ban snarky but relevant Internet commenting. (Or attempts thereat.)

Your goal seems to be to foster only opinions you agree with. What if it leads to more vasectomies and faster development of a male contraceptive?

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unemployable
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Re: Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by unemployable » Wed May 15, 2019 3:27 pm

C40 wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 3:19 pm
I don't really understand how this works.

As I understand it:
1 - The Roe-Vs-Wade verdict in 1973 said that abortions must be legal up until 20 (or 24?) weeks of pregnancy
2 - Various states have now said abortions are illegal at less time or are just basically 100% illegal (like Alabama)
3 - If Roe-Vs-Wade is overturned, the states can all decide on their own entirely

Is this right? To me, it seems like #2 can't happen before #3. (?). Or, is that just how laws and court decisions work?
Laws can stand on the books for years or decades before the Supremes overturn them. Consider Chicago's former gun ban.

Alabama's bill hasn't been signed yet. A few other states have only one or two abortion clinics. Mississippi and South Dakota come to mind. For most of the area of these states, abortion tourism is the most viable option.

Edit: Some maps here, 2017 data: https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-na- ... -roe-wade/
Whatever it is that is happening or not happening, I'm now more motivated to get that vasectomy I've been wanting for some years.
Damn, you beat me by two minutes.

ZAFCorrection
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Re: Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by ZAFCorrection » Wed May 15, 2019 3:58 pm

unemployable wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 3:21 pm
Well no state I know of is attempting to ban snarky but relevant Internet commenting. (Or attempts thereat.)

Your goal seems to be to foster only opinions you agree with. What if it leads to more vasectomies and faster development of a male contraceptive?
Actually, I expect people to disagree with me or at least have a more sophisticated analysis than I do on this topic. This is the ERE forums afterall. Toward that end, yes, I am trying to limit discussion of "hurr durr. look at how stupid those other people are!" Your last question is reasonable and I will think about it.

Again, I am not trying to litigate the validity of abortion, abortion laws, or what people's responses should be. I'm only interested in the outcome at a social level. I'm not sure how we could have already gotten to the point that that narrow topic is controversial.

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unemployable
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Re: Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by unemployable » Wed May 15, 2019 4:02 pm

ZAFCorrection wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 3:58 pm
Toward that end, yes, I am trying to limit discussion of "hurr durr. look at how stupid those other people are!"
My original comment has plenty of relevance, and if you have a problem with it your argument is with Alyssa, not me.

ZAFCorrection
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Re: Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by ZAFCorrection » Wed May 15, 2019 4:08 pm

We are going to have to agree to disagree on that.

IlliniDave
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Re: Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by IlliniDave » Wed May 15, 2019 4:36 pm

C40 wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 3:19 pm
I don't really understand how this works.

As I understand it:
1 - The Roe-Vs-Wade verdict in 1973 said that abortions must be legal up until 20 (or 24?) weeks of pregnancy
2 - Various states have now said abortions are illegal at less time or are just basically 100% illegal (like Alabama)
3 - If Roe-Vs-Wade is overturned, the states can all decide on their own entirely

Is this right? To me, it seems like #2 can't happen before #3. (?). Or, is that just how laws and court decisions work?


Whatever it is that is happening or not happening, I'm now more motivated to get that vasectomy I've been wanting for some years.
Pretty much, about all they could do as Supreme Court is uphold some state's/locality's law of which a part contradicts Roe v Wade. States passing laws that seem to contradict prior SC rulings is a prerequisite for a prior ruling to be overturned. I don't think that (overturning) can happen spontaneously.

slowtraveler
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Re: Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by slowtraveler » Thu May 16, 2019 4:44 am

@C40
How do you explain state legal, federally legal cannabis using your logic?

The Old Man
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Re: Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by The Old Man » Thu May 16, 2019 7:51 am

Overturning Roe vs Wade through Judicial means will not be possible. The state challenges will be shutdown. Roe vs Wade will be overturned through Legislative means, likely through a constitutional amendment. Similar history exists with slavery.

Jason
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Re: Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by Jason » Thu May 16, 2019 9:01 am

Further to The Old Man, I would read the following. It's Judge Renquist's dissent on the case.

http://landmarkcases.c-span.org/pdf/Roe ... issent.pdf

Overlooking the sensitivity of the abortion issue itself, there was always a question as to whether the Supreme Court was the body of government that should be arbitrating the matter. I am not a legal scholar, but Renquist seems to be saying that the amendments that addressed the Constitutional three/fifth issue matter with regard to African Americans and which was the basis of the pro-abortion argument, does not extend to the unborn. He's saying it's a legislative matter not a judicial matter. What were Pro-slavery states now tend to be anti-abortion states and they are saying that in each instance it is a States rights issue, not a Constitutionally protected human rights issue.

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Re: Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by enigmaT120 » Tue May 21, 2019 5:22 pm

Do you guys believe in a right to privacy? Something like: All powers not granted to the federal government nor to the states shall reside in the people. Sorry not a direct quote.

IlliniDave
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Re: Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by IlliniDave » Tue May 21, 2019 7:08 pm

I think it is more like: all powers not herein vested in the federal government are left to the states or the people. That's a paraphrase, but the 10th Amendment basically leaves very broad swaths of power to state/local governments, with essentially only the Bill of Rights and a handful of subsequent amendments as explicit federal protections of the rights of individuals.

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Re: Consequences of Overturning Roe v. Wade

Post by Jason » Tue May 21, 2019 7:29 pm

If you are talking specifically about the issue of right to privacy, I think one can argue it was one of the fundamental reasons why the government was created as a protective body in the first place. The three big ticket Jeffersonian natural rights items, life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness is an an alteration of the Lockean life, liberty and the pursuit of property triad. And by property, it was "private" property, so right there is the word and it did not merely refer to external property but the individual him/her self in terms of one's ability to create the means to purchase private property. What exactly is the pursuit of happiness is debated, but there is no doubt private property is included. From that vantage point, the protection of individual privacy is at the heart of the people's initial willingness to exchange aspects of their personal autonomy in order to imbue the government with power over them. From the angle of government's right to know things about us, censuses are constitutionally mandated for purposes of taxes and government representation, so we are in turn legally obligated to exchange some basic information about ourselves to the government. So back to your question as I understand it, the people granted the government certain rights to their privacy in service of their desire to have the government protect that very privacy. I guess the next question is the sheer amount of private information the government expects the people to provide, and this is beyond my pay grade because I don't think the founders would have anticipated the rise of a private enterprise system that not only exceeds the amount of private information the government has on the citizenry, but is actually driven by the very acquisition of private information (not to mention the government exercising its powers for that information to be handed over to them in the name of various interests). Whatever the case, I think it goes without saying that the founders would shit their pantaloons if they ever discovered the current state of this matter.

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