Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

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Bonde
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Bonde »

Video of fast charge stations in Norway https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKlDjb6F4Cw
Many places with queues but not for Tesla. This will maybe change since Musk tweeted that Tesla chargers soon also will be available for other cars.

ducknald_don
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by ducknald_don »

Viktor K wrote:
Mon Aug 02, 2021 3:48 pm
I think leased batteries would have to catch on more. I understand that one company is expanding outside of China to Europe now.

The idea of stopping for 20-30 minutes at a gas station doesn't seem as good as swapping out a battery at a station and continuing on your way.

NIO is the company that I read about.
Wasn't there an Israeli company that tried this and failed.

Personally I'd rather own and look after the battery so I can extract the most value from it. I can't imagine car manufacturers being that enthusiastic about the idea either.

Campitor
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Campitor »

ducknald_don wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:03 am
Wasn't the head of Google's autonomous driving division saying it is going to take 30 years before they have a general solution. 30 years sounds like never to me.
@ducknald_don

It will be a long time before autonomous vehicles are the norm. And 30 years sounds about right. This is something that all automakers are working on. The fee based service industry is too lucrative of a model for car manufacturers to pass up. They will stop selling cars and lease them to either automated fleet companies or provide the fleet service directly. Car makers will be able to reduce the production of new cars and focus on auto-part recycling and repair thereby recapturing segments of the car market traditionally dominated by 3rd parties. I imagine one day nothing will be privately owned - it will all be leased. Only consumables will be sold. Corporations love profits and in a world of finite goods, it makes more business sense to rent out your goods than to sell them outright.

Gilberto de Piento
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Gilberto de Piento »

I was listening to a podcast today that said for practical purposes the US auto fleet is considered to turn over every 11 years.

chenda
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by chenda »

Campitor wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:34 pm
I imagine one day nothing will be privately owned - it will all be leased. Only consumables will be sold.
That's certainly been the norm for most people in history.

I'm actually a bit skeptical that autonomous vehicles are very soon to become standard, as much due to social barriers than technology. In the near term, I think trends such as working from home, online delivery of bulk goods and improved bike and pedestrian infrastructure will encourage a reduction in private motoring. Bike lanes have significantly expanded in many cities during Covid.

I ventured into London today for the first time in a few years and was pleasantly surprised by the very visible reduction in traffic, and the associated noise and pollution.

@ego - good point about the street parking issue. I could imagine some kind of charging points like old fashioned parking metres along the pavement but I'm not sure how practical that would be. The need for private parking and charging points might further render private cars luxury items, especially where street parking is the norm.
Last edited by chenda on Tue Aug 03, 2021 3:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Alifelongme
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Alifelongme »

I’m skeptical. Does anyone know what EV’s production and operation energy cost is in comparison to conventional vehicles?

Besides, is it even feasible, except in very few well developed countries with established infrastructure, short driving distances, somewhat flat terrain, and forgiving climate?

Toska2
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Toska2 »

Sure. People buy big vehicles for safety, status and recreation. EVs will never pull a camper, be easily modified or get good MPGe ( as a heavy suburban).

What is the rate of EVs for single car ownership vs second or third?

Americans only kinda care about mpg/environment. There are a slew of shunned cars that got 33-40 mpg that disappeared. Ford aspire, chevy cobalt, toyota yaris, honda crv ect

Laura Ingalls
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Laura Ingalls »

Toska2 wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 4:32 pm
Sure. People buy big vehicles for safety, status and recreation. EVs will never pull a camper, be easily modified or get good MPGe ( as a heavy suburban).

What is the rate of EVs for single car ownership vs second or third?

Americans only kinda care about mpg/environment. There are a slew of shunned cars that got 33-40 mpg that disappeared. Ford aspire, chevy cobalt, toyota yaris, honda crv ect
The towing capacity is going to grow and once you get to a campground with electricity you can charge it up. There are several EV’s and plug in hybrids that tow 3500lbs right now. A camper in this weight range is pretty common among weekenders as it is.

I saw some Teslas in some pretty remote spots on my last road trip (i.e. the highway between Bend, OR and Ontario, OR. )

Are we adapting quickly? No but we are adapting.

Chris
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Chris »

Alifelongme wrote:
Tue Aug 03, 2021 3:22 pm
I’m skeptical. Does anyone know what EV’s production and operation energy cost is in comparison to conventional vehicles?
EV operational energy cost is pretty straightforward to estimate.

The lowest-end Model 3 has a 54kWh battery, with range of 220 mi, so 0.245 kwH/mi. Multiply that by your price per kWh (delivered) to get your cost per mile driven. In my area, it works out to 3.9 cents/mi.

A Toyoda Corolla spends 0.0286 gallons per mile driven. Multiply that by your cost per gallon of gasoline to get your cost per mile driven for the gas. In my area, it work out to 9.3 cents/mi. This is excluding the additional cost of ICE maintenance (oil changes, timing belt, etc.).

sky
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by sky »

When I bought my (crappy) Nissan Versa in 2009, I was hoping it was the last vehicle I would ever have to buy. Promises of electric vehicles and robot taxis would surely come true in 10 years or so. I'm still waiting.

This thread was a good caution to me, to warn against buying a new car. I will try to keep my existing cars as long as I can. Because I like to drive, eventually I will look for an electric vehicle. I am still hoping for an electric autonomous taxi system, maybe in 5 years?

I think the bigger issue is not availability of gasoline as a fuel, but the price. Refineries are able to produce fuel cheaply in high volumes. As soon as the demand starts dropping, big refineries are not going to be as cost effective working at 1/2 or 1/4 capacity. Capital rich oil companies will hold prices down to drive competition out of the market, and then will jack up the prices after buying up the failing oil companies. In addition, government regulation and taxes which will also increase price to the consumer.

Increases in the cost of fuel will push the consumer to electric vehicles even more quickly.

rube
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by rube »

Today the US announced a statement that by 2030 about 40-50% should be electric:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo ... nd-trucks/
Several European countries will/have forbid new ICE cars to be sold in 2030-2035. Currently about 10% of the sold cars in Europe is fully electric. In the US this is about 2%.
Politics are important here to determine how fast the switch from ice to electric will go.

Dave
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Dave »

While the newly stated (ambitious) goals of % new vehicles sold being electric are high, it's the time it takes for the car parc to turnover (from gas to electric) that matters regarding need for petroleum fueling stations. So even if 50% of all vehicles being sold today were electric, I don't think you see a situation where gas stations are gone in 15 years (barring extreme regulation). Sure, there would be less, but not some wholesale change of scenery as you drive down the road.

Even now, as @unemployable said, quite little of the profit of fueling centers actually comes from gross margins on fuel, but rather all of the accessory purchases that come with refueling stops.

Further, it's like a few folks said/implied above - gas stations aren't about selling gasoline, but rather refueling a car and giving travelers a chance to rest and refuel themselves. The energy transfer process will change, but there are going to be locations where vehicles and traveling humans refuel for a very long time to come.

The economics of that process could change, but I don't see how you get to a point where vehicles aren't recharging and humans aren't getting drinks and snacks at something resembling the current gas station in the next 15 years, or realistically much much longer.

ducknald_don
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by ducknald_don »

Dave wrote:
Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:57 pm
The economics of that process could change, but I don't see how you get to a point where vehicles aren't recharging and humans aren't getting drinks and snacks at something resembling the current gas station in the next 15 years, or realistically much much longer.
If we had an EV then I'm pretty sure I would be charging it at home 95% of the time. We would need an occasional topup on the road but it would be a fraction of the visits we make now.

Dave
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Dave »

@ducknald_don

Sure, that makes sense. But (with allowances for gradual changes) the number of gas/refueling stations that exists won't be dependent on how small subsets of the population operate. In this thought experiment, you live a life where:

1) you own an EV, whereas remember even the US stated goal is 50% of new sales is EV in 9 years, and it takes years (probably not less than 10 barring extreme changes in other factors) for cars to go from sale-scrap, so a meaningful portion of cars in the parc will still operate with an ICE in 2036

2) you live an lifestyle where 95% of the time a charge/the range would cover your needs, whereas a lot of people drive meaningful distances regularly

3) I'm guessing as someone who frequents these forums, stopping for a soft drink and hot dog combo isn't high on your list of priorities, but for a lot of people this is part and parcel of life on the road, not to mention the other functions like restrooms, stretching, cleaning your windshield, buying miscellaneous other things

I definitely agree that for many people the stops at a gas station will decline with ownership of an EV. But I don't see a situation within 15 years where the overwhelming majority of people own EVs, rarely travel outside of battery range, and don't care to stop at gas stations for the other reasons people commonly do. The intersection of all 3 of those attributes could be meaningful, but IMO not so much whereas say half of fueling stations will be gone.

With that said, I'm not especially confident on how the shift in economics will play out nor when the inflection point on when the gas sales start becoming immaterial/impaired. Definitely have less confidence on the cash flows of these assets than on their general existence in 2036.

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jennypenny
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by jennypenny »

I find it funny on a forum full of luddites and low-tech aficionados (some of whom still eschew cell phones) that so many posts argue that the conversion to EVs will happen quickly.

During doom times -- whether slow or fast -- it seems to me that low-tech living becomes more prevalent because it's sustainable, and an ICE vehicle is lower tech and much easier to maintain/bodge than an EV. I know gasoline might become scarce and expensive, but I would think converting ICE vehicles to run on something other than gas is more likely than widespread EV adoption and use during a true slowdoom scenario. Those EV projections over the next 30 years assume a kind of political and economic status quo that I think is unlikely.

I wouldn't want to own a gas station, but only because of political reasons since gas-powered vehicles are seen as one of the carbon bogeymen.

ducknald_don
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by ducknald_don »

jennypenny wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 9:40 am
I find it funny on a forum full of luddites and low-tech aficionados (some of whom still eschew cell phones) that so many posts argue that the conversion to EVs will happen quickly.
Exponential growth. The only thing holding them back right now is constrained battery supplies. Of course there will be some holdouts because they can't drive 4,000 miles across a continent whilst towing a 60' boat and with 16 kids in the back without charging. For everybody else it will be like the transition from horses to cars and tractors.

Not that I think it will solve many problems. It's marginally better to have a fleet of EV's than ICE cars but personally I'd prefer more bikes.

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jennypenny
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by jennypenny »

ducknald_don wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 10:36 am
Exponential growth.
Yes, but don't we argue in a bunch of different threads that exponential growth can't continue because we're coming up on some very real hard limits? That was my point about everyone making economic and political assumptions about the next 30 years. If I agreed with those assumptions, I would buy into the normal exponential growth assumption about new tech. I don't, however, and personally think we're in a slow doom scenario that will hinder most growth going forward for a variety of reasons.

I wasn't trying to start an argument. I honestly found it amusing that even here people talk limits to growth in some threads and exponential growth in others.

ZAFCorrection
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by ZAFCorrection »

To make EVs the dominant vehicle class on the road would require multiplying production of a number of materials such that multiple mining industries would have to make qualitative shifts. Even an expect in the mining business might have a hard time determining if those materials could be supplied in the quantities and prices required. Maybe the answer is yes; maybe not.

Some materials such as cobalt and tantalum are mined by questionable methods in the DRC. Maybe the huge increase in demand would cause consolidation of suppliers and at least officially better working conditions without driving prices up too much. If that doesn't happen and it becomes an industry requirement that workforce exploitation must increase proportional to supply, the ESG folks might have a hard time making the case in the long run.

Even if optics aren't an issue, maybe resource rich countries like the DRC have some cap on how much their resources can be exploited because additional funding for mining infrastructure just just gets eaten up or destroyed by people trying to get their piece of the pie in a shambolic place.

Whether or not electrification + all renewables actually works out, it is undoubtedly the ultimate Rube Goldberg solution to sustainability. This would be an interesting topic to dig into if not for that fundamental problem.

Qazwer
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by Qazwer »

@jennypenny exponential growth in any one field has limits but then you can switch to another field which has its own limits - this race requires ever increasing returns to maintain ongoing population increases (argument from ‘Scale’ by West which @7w put me onto in another thread)
So the question from an increasing return point of view is that whether the shift to EV is feasible not the problem of beating the math - yes, eventually exponential growth and even shifting technologies must fail but it might not be in the timeline of the death of gas stations

ducknald_don
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Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Post by ducknald_don »

@ZAF There is probably plenty of cobalt available if we want to avoid DRC.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 6820311008

Also my understanding is that VW and Tesla are both close to eliminating cobalt in their batteries.

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