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Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Posted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:57 pm
by Stahlmann
did a read of "final energy crisis" 2 days ago. after USA got more interested in giving more freedom to Iran :-DDDD

if we speak about the book.
scary shit.
I hope smart folks doesn't lie.
I don't have time to do my orginal research, because I'm wage slave :-DDDD

Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Posted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 3:43 pm
by 7Wannabe5
JollyScot wrote:Every so often I hear the price of large land areas in US and it depressing on how expensive it is over here compared to you. Then even if you can buy up the land, so many restrictions are put on what you can do with it that its not as useful as it should/could be.
Well, code restrictions exist here too. I am mostly just having fun with numbers (peak oil is real and I have no clue what will happen in the future), but it is interesting to note that the population density (approximate solar acreage units of energy available per capita) of Michigan is currently approximately equal to the population density of England (not U.K. entire) in 1700 and a much higher proportion (53%)of the acreage is currently forested. Due to combination of improved management practices and abandonment of family farms in late 20th century, the range of bears, wolves, eagles and even cougars has expanded since my childhood. The forests were timbered out by the late 19th century to provide lumber for westward pioneer movement across tree-barren plains, but much replanting was done in early 20th century, so regrowth is approaching 100 years. Intelligent management of 2 acre woodlot used to provide heat/cooking fuel for intelligently designed human housing should be adequate for family of 4. As I am sure you are aware, England was timbered out well before 1700 in order to provide charcoal for early industrial usage prior to adoption of more grueling task of mining for coal. It takes a lot of trees to make enough charcoal to forge a sword let alone a full-size SUV. So, highly likely riots etc. here as much as anywhere if SHTF.

Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Posted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:06 pm
by JollyScot
Had a quick look at the density of Michigan, it actually about the same as Scotland is now. Maybe I've been listening to the "England is full" news stories too much.

I suspect there will be bickering here when the water shortages hit. South of England has near annual drought. North have about 300 days a year of rain and 30,000 fresh water lochs (lakes).

Could just be that you consider the buying land and thinking about it more than we do. Or our ownership is just a bit too concentrated.

Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Posted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:25 pm
by classical_Liberal
It seems to me that the US is in a very good position to switch to electric personal vehicles. US advantages include high rate of home ownership with garages attached to the grid allowing for home charging stations, the relatively rich middle class replaces vehicles every five years or so anyway, no real change to production use of petroleum, no real need for infrastructure change, no real need for behavior change. Together I think this makes it the likely future, even at European pump prices, electric vehicles become economically viable. The only reason it hasn't happened yet is because peak oil didn't happen as promised*. Until pump prices go up the only real reason to go electric (due to the downsides, major one being range and lack of charging stations) is because of gov't subsidies or social signaling.

On those lines, if the rate of use for consumer E personal cars in the US went up to 75%. How would that impact the model for future global petroleum use?

(*) Side note, evidently the oil companies were well (ha my second pun of the day) ahead of the peak oil guys on fracking potential. I distinctly remember a multiple hour long discussion with a geologist working in the Western Dakotas circa 2000. He claimed, at the time, the US shale deposits would extend peak oil into the 2030's! That seemed like a very long time to a twenties something c_L. I also distinctly remember thinking half a decade later this friend of a friend was full of shit. Pump prices were nearing $4 a gallon and oil sustaining at over $100 a barrel, up to 150ish at peak. Yet, here we are today.

Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Posted: Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:13 pm
by enigmaT120
JollyScot:

You guys just had to breed Irish wolfhounds and Scottish Deerhounds so what do you expect? Though we nearly exterminated them here without dogs. There are more wolves in Italy than there are in Oregon. Makes me crazy.

Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Posted: Sun Jan 12, 2020 5:21 pm
by chenda
I think they were all shot. The wolves in Britain all gone by the 18th century, the bears gone as early as the 10th. Theres still a few wild cats in Scotland though.

Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Posted: Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:52 am
by BookLoverL
Re: population density, according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demograph ... Population, England's population density is 430/km2 whereas Scotland's is 70/km2. So I think England is definitely more crowded than Scotland. The lack of large areas of wilderness in England (especially ones that aren't deforested open moorland) does concern me.

Re: Re-Visiting Peak Oil after the Fracking boom

Posted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 3:07 pm
by chenda
BookLoverL wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:52 am
The lack of large areas of wilderness in England (especially ones that aren't deforested open moorland) does concern me.
In many ways though it's a good thing, lowland Britain has a superb agricultural climate with lots of cultivated land.