House questions in a new political order

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Hristo Botev
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Hristo Botev »

The references in this thread to Mormons and the Jewish people I think are interesting. I'd add the Armenians. I think we can probably learn a lot from diasporan populations that have survived and thrived through all sorts of upheaval. I know I've railed elsewhere on here against tribalism, but there's something to be said for tribalism in the diasporan manner--engaging with the community at large, but only to a point, relying principally on your own "tribe" of close-knit folks with whom you share a faith, a culture, and common values.

JollyScot
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by JollyScot »

Its a tough one as relative to history there are a lot more system in place to track people. So what was done in 30's with respect to an upheaval you couldn't do the same now. Not legally at least, you can do it illegally and try your luck but then you get put in the criminal bucket and you see how that goes.

Still the main path is to be hyper skilled at something in demand, be paid a lot of money for something, or be rich and invest in something. As Jacob points out those things may change. Or the the bar jumps up even higher. The hyper skilled one I can see turning now, the rich coming in is also turning due to house prices and various other reason where you can go...look it is that person. Rather than you gave most of your country next to free money for a decade.

Always someone to blame and now there are fairly robust system to round them all up too. I suspect US is still suffienctly belligerant about authority that you will be harder to roll over than other places. No where is perfect.

Alphaville
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Alphaville »

UK-with-kids wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 2:19 pm
I meant it's ironic if the scenario unfolds as described, i.e. that America has gone "bad", but people have already absorbed the Orwellian propaganda pumped out by that "bad" place they live now, to the extent they believe China is even more "bad", and so they wouldn't even move to the safe haven of New Zealand in case it came into China's zone of influence. Even though the propaganda wasn't true. And so they stay in the "bad" country at home instead.

I probably didn't explain myself very well the first time, but I hope that makes more sense now.
my thing about nz and china is not about “fear of chinese people” or anything of that sort. asia is filled with ethnically chinese communities under different forms of government. and there is chinese diaspora all over the world. basically i fear 2 things:

1) one-party rule
2) transitions in a destabilized world

the one party rule is obvious. having at times in my life lived under dictatorships, i have no wish to revisit, and i’d assume the kiwis would not appreciate either. i have a chinese friend who refuses to go back home due to fear of the government. i also know a few tibetans... oh! i’ve also met real maoists, and cultural revolution survivors...

and frictions happen during times of transition. e.g., hong kong going from british hands to chinese hands ends up in promises reneged, freedoms quashed, political persecutions... is that propaganda?

i’ll add: treatment of the uighurs: made up? tibet: inventions? taiwan: independent state or renegade province?

i also more or less said that as long as new zealand could keep its freedoms it wouldn’t matter who they’d trade with. but if they had to live under a puppet government? would they be conquered?

please note that previous instances of puppet governments i mentioned were perpetrated by western powers to ensure their business prosperity, so i’m not claiming sainthood for our hemisphere. i’m saying aus/nz are near a very big fish that is hungry for resources. and in a dystopian world... there is nowhere to go.

UK-with-kids
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by UK-with-kids »

Alphaville wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 2:56 pm
and frictions happen during times of transition. e.g., hong kong going from british hands to chinese hands ends up in promises reneged, freedoms quashed, political persecutions... is that propaganda?

i’ll add: treatment of the uighurs: made up? tibet: inventions? taiwan: independent state or renegade province?
Well of course the way it's portrayed is propaganda, and we can't really know what's happening there, can we? Or to be more specific, why do you think there is so much news about the plight of the Uighur Muslims right now, at a time when the US is in a massive spat with China? Compared to approx zero news about the 180 million Muslims in India (Kashmir)? This isn't an extreme position I'm mentioning here, it's sometimes reported in the mainstream press, e.g. one of the main UK newspapers here:
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/ui ... 59161.html

And it depends what you mean by freedoms. You can't judge everything by Western standards and assume everyone wants to do stuff like voting and protesting. In fact, even in the US or the UK, much of the time a majority of people can't be bothered and just want a quiet life. Let alone countries which don't have a democratic culture - we saw how this failed in the Middle East for example.

My point being, and the relevance to this thread, that you can't figure out where in the world is going to be a safe place to live in scenario x, y or z if you base your worldview on the evil pantomime villain of the day.
Alphaville wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 2:56 pm
basically i fear 2 things:

1) one-party rule
2) transitions in a destabilized world

the one party rule is obvious. having at times in my life lived under dictatorships, i have no wish to revisit, and i’d assume the kiwis would not appreciate either. i have a chinese friend who refuses to go back home due to fear of the government. i also know a few tibetans... oh! i’ve also met real maoists, and cultural revolution survivors...
I completely respect your views and experience and I agree with you. But look, I know a Chinese family who just decided to leave the UK and go back to China - another anecdote. China's one party state has done a pretty good job at lifting many of their 1 billion people out of poverty at a time when the US has gotten poorer. More recently, they've controlled the spread of Coronavirus far better than the US, who had a massive head start. I'm not convinced that having a two party state, where both parties are almost the same in all the important ways, and both are in thrall to big business, necessarily makes for better lives for citizens on a day to day level.

JollyScot
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by JollyScot »

Yeah I think our democracy possibly need an extra choice of "none of the below" since we keep getting presented with a bunch of cretins. However I am not sure even that will make much of a difference if you can't boot them out properly instead of change them to the same thing but colour red/blue. If presented with no suitable choice then the act of not voting is viewed as apethetic. As you should really get with the program and vote for the least stinky pile of garbage.

@CS
I didn't know about the wikipedia thing. Its pretty funny that someone would happily spend all their time just making stuff up to that extent.

Alphaville
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Alphaville »

UK-with-kids wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 4:04 pm
And it depends what you mean by freedoms. You can't judge everything by Western standards and assume everyone wants to do stuff like voting and protesting. [..] Let alone countries which don't have a democratic culture - we saw how this failed in the Middle East for example.
but aus and nz have a democratic culture, and that goes to my point. this isn’t about cartoon villains. i know we’re just dealing with fantastic scenarios of global devolution, but a democratic little fish is not safe next to a nationalistic big fish under those conditions.

for me values count for a lot. i’m not a china hater, but i do cherish democracy and human rights wherever they might be found, and would not feel safe under authoritarian rule.

anyway more china-related entertainment in this thread: viewtopic.php?f=20&t=11367 🙈

Papers of Indenture
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Papers of Indenture »

I'm always daydreaming about the perfect place to bunker down. But at the end of the day i've invested more here than i'll be able to makeup elsewhere. I've been very careful to maintain a committed Epicurean approach to security. Friendship and family relationships are a practice. Learn to love the practice and you will be in a very strong position to thrive in times of uncertainty. I have 6 very deep friendships with men who i've known since we were 14. We schooled together, played violent team sports together, and have shared our lives. I have an extended family of aunts, uncles, cousins, 2nd cousins, and 3rd cousins and multi-generational family friends that i've dependably engaged with my entire life. It wasn't always easy.

My point being that If you're fortunate enough to be in a similar position....where you've got a strong tribe in place made up of trusted people who you are highly bonded with...it would be foolish to move away and become an outsider at the onset of a crisis.

jacob
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by jacob »

@PoI - The flipside of that position is sticking with an untenable position for too long and getting trapped therein. Eventually social capital might be the only thing propping it up rendering residual forms of capital moot. These are the people who don't even have the privilege/luxury of becoming refuges anymore. An example would be the German Jews staying put due to capital controls figuring they had too much to lose if leaving. A similar predicament is what makes the economic decline of rural America more complex to solve than simply imploring people to "move to where the jobs are".

This goes back the the game theoretic problem between nomads and homesteaders. There's no dominant solution available, so basically no right answer. The usual proposal is to become somewhat both moving between two or three places and developing connections to both. This, however, requires a high level of resources.

Papers of Indenture
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Papers of Indenture »

@Jacob - 100% right. I was just coming back to add that my opinion wouldn't stand you're part of a targeted marginalized group or in a particularly disadvantaged location.

My perspective is coming from someone who has worked hard to maintain good finances and zero debt outside of a modest mortgage but simply has not had enough time/income to amass serious wealth yet. So moving to an ideal location is on a scale of highly risky commitment to unworkable.

I think your last paragraph is on the money. Be prepared to get mobile if you need to. Have contingency plans. But if you're not wealthy then putting all of your eggs into the basket of some far away region you have no ties to is a huge, huge gamble. I'm not weatlhy enough to maintain residences in two to three locations (or purchase a mobile home) but I have considered buying some cheap property that is within the same macro region but several countie over, where I have a few contacts, that could serve as sort of a retreat/fallback location. I'm not sure that would really be that helpful though.

Alphaville
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Alphaville »

so basically we’re back to machiavelli: a fortified palace with an escape hatch.

of course he theorized from fear not love.

now i wanted to add earlier that with a strong community and sufficient inventiveness there’s not so much need to fear stuff like overheating. e.g., the israelis have been growing produce in the negev for... over half a century?

hydroponics, drip irrigation, choosing the right species, etc. eg see: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VUNmN_bZNsk

Papers of Indenture
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Papers of Indenture »

Alphaville wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:53 pm
so basically we’re back to machiavelli: a fortified palace with an escape hatch.

of course he theorized from fear not love.

now i wanted to add earlier that with a strong community and sufficient inventiveness there’s not so much need to fear stuff like overheating. e.g., the israelis have been growing produce in the negev for... over half a century?

hydroponics, drip irrigation, choosing the right species, etc. eg see: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VUNmN_bZNsk
Cool stuff. I've been playing around with some very tough fruit/berry crops like goumi and jujube lately that I feel will do well as things become hotter and more erratic in my region. But i'll save that for one of our other threads.

Alphaville
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Alphaville »

Papers of Indenture wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 6:22 pm
Cool stuff. I've been playing around with some very tough fruit/berry crops like goumi and jujube lately that I feel will do well as things become hotter and more erratic in my region. But i'll save that for one of our other threads.
yup. looking forward to reading about it.

after a day of paranoia and depressive nightmarish speculations this thread has made me reconsider my piece of family ranch somewhat.

backups behind backups behind backups...

sky
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by sky »

Most of the nomading that I have done, which includes vandwelling and sailboat cruising, depends on a functioning infrastructure that serves the non-nomadic population. Nomads often find clever tricks to avoid paying the taxes and responsibilities that the house dwellers are tied to. When SHTF nomads do well for a few weeks, but then need to resupply, take on water, fix mechanical issues, deal with administrative issues, etc. Then they become more vulnerable because they often haven't followed the rules well.

tonyedgecombe
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by tonyedgecombe »

Alphaville wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 5:53 pm
now i wanted to add earlier that with a strong community and sufficient inventiveness there’s not so much need to fear stuff like overheating. e.g., the israelis have been growing produce in the negev for... over half a century?
Israel is a net importer of food, growing tomatoes in greenhouses might be economically viable but they still have to import staples.

Alphaville
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Alphaville »

tonyedgecombe wrote:
Sat Aug 29, 2020 2:55 am
Israel is a net importer of food, growing tomatoes in greenhouses might be economically viable but they still have to import staples.
yes, of course one can’t live on peppers and tomatoes alone, but the israelis in general show great agricultural efficiency in what otherwise could be a wasteland.

this is not to gloss over the catastrophe of global warming or anything, but... personally speaking, i come here to work out & solve (my?) problems. and we do have an efficiency problem with land usage in the sw usa where i live, which is mostly semi-arid and facing increasing desertification.

so for my family perhaps there is no need to abandon ship so quickly, but rather look at options to run a tighter ship instead. now if i could get everyone on board... :lol:

nomadscientist
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by nomadscientist »

CS wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:58 am
I don't want this thread to devolve into politics, so the parameters are set as assumptions. Under those listed below, where would you live?

Please note: These are hypothetical assumptions. I'd be happy to have additional discussions under different assumptions. And yes, much of this has been talked about prior on this board but not for these exact circumstances. The question is do these particular conditions change anyone's thoughts.

1. In the US, Trump wins the next election
2. The US officially becomes autocracy like Putin's Russian.
Your person and property will be safe unless you choose to get deeply involved in the politics of deposing Trump. If you do, it's a decision to stay in the US on its face. Maybe you choose to go abroad for some tactical reason, to throw dirt from a position of safety. In that case, most determined by extradition and other arrangements, reaction of China to such an event, etc.
3. In fact, the US becomes aligned with Russia, so that the US support military support of Europe is no longer guaranteed. Let's assume it's gone.
Europe deters Russia anyway, since it has 4x population, 10x industrial capacity, and nuclear weapons; no consequences. But Europe is hard to move to for Americans anyway, and hard to see the advantage in this as in the current situation. May be more to your political taste.
Ditto for support for South Korea against North Korea.
Ditto. Maybe both SK and NK get nuclear weapons. Neither of them want you as a citizen.
5. Global climate changes continues on trajectory - In the US fire and water problems increase to the west and south, hurricanes increase, and loss of Florida land and other costal areas speeds up. In Europe, fresh water becomes an issue as the glacial freshwater reserves disappear. I don't know enough detail about other regions to speak of them.
6. Food insecurity increases steadily with bad crops, as have already popped up in China and elsewhere this year with the recall of dogs in North Korea, etc
6B. You have a timeline of 20-40 years. Edited because I didn't renumber correctly when adding to the list
7. Food security and population density as well as temperatures are important, i.e. can you live in that location without fuel or little fuel for air conditioning or heating. Ironically (to me), it seems the air conditioning is the biggest one in some areas unless there is a way to live in a cave underground. Humans can self-heat small spaces with enough clothing, food and insulation.
Even in drastic circumstances, US remains the safest place to be for food in the world, with one of the lowest population densities for a country so largely composed of temperate land. If things get really bad you start buying your food from Canada, or conquer them in the very worst case; things need to get really hot for Canada to exceed its carrying capacity.

If the US somehow goes, where could be better? Russia? Antarctica?

If a lot of people are gonna die in some bottleneck one way or another, try to be as rich (good) and connected (better) as possible first. Part of being connected in such a situation is being a citizen of a militarily strong country.

Alphaville
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Alphaville »

nomadscientist wrote:
Sat Aug 29, 2020 9:31 pm
Europe deters Russia anyway, since it has 4x population, 10x industrial capacity, and nuclear weapons; no consequences.
please tell me more about this. i find the thought comforting. in my mind russia is the outsized military power in the region and us bases are what keep them at bay. but if that’s lies, i’d like to know. thanks in advance.

nomadscientist
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by nomadscientist »

Alphaville wrote:
Sat Aug 29, 2020 9:44 pm
please tell me more about this. i find the thought comforting. in my mind russia is the outsized military power in the region and us bases are what keep them at bay. but if that’s lies, i’d like to know. thanks in advance.
Various statistics can be found online. I gave some in the post. Another: EU military spending was $250bn in 2018 versus $65bn for Russia in 2019, a factor of four difference in favour of the EU. Another: the EU is only spending about a third as much as Russia as a proportion its GDP, so that could become $750bn vs $65bn.

Russia is just not that significant a country, although it has some advantages, such as being an established nuclear weapons state and possessing enough land and resources to be fully self-sufficient of raw materials. But those are principally defensive advantages.

A big disadvantage that seems to lie in the Western blindspot is that Russia also has a border with China, not just with Europe, and with one of the most industrialised and densely populated regions of China. That is another $180bn of rival military spending. Russia's population density is weighted toward Europe, but the Chinese border is arguably more threatening. They really do not have a lot of resources to deal with all this.

ertyu
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by ertyu »

nomadscientist wrote:
Sat Aug 29, 2020 9:59 pm
Russia also has a border with China
This. I fully expect that just like Canada would be under threat and pressure from the States, Russia would be under pressure from China. Russia will, by itself, have it well: it is resource-rich, and once the permafrost thaws on greater and greater parts of its territory, those resources would become accessible. Its land, now revealed and arable, would be way less exhausted by industrial farming. But that is exactly what would make Russia an attractive morsel (rip mongolia while we're at it).

Note: Russia may currently be poorer than the EU, but that may change once an inflationary regime settles in and Russia's got all the commodities.

IlliniDave
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by IlliniDave »

Alphaville wrote:
Sat Aug 29, 2020 9:44 pm
please tell me more about this. i find the thought comforting. in my mind russia is the outsized military power in the region and us bases are what keep them at bay. but if that’s lies, i’d like to know. thanks in advance.
They do have outsized military power, relatively speaking, especially nuclear. I don't think the US forces based there are much of a conventional deterrent in their own right any more, but the knowledge that attacking will bring the US in is.

IMO Russia is an not existential military threat to a theoretically unified Europe in the way the USSR was 50+ years ago. They are a threat, but they'd much rather sell oil and gas to Europe than try to conquer it I suspect.

however ...
-European nations have not maintained a high state of military preparedness. Some still have never met their agreed-to share of the NATO cost. Of course in this scenario one would have to assume there is no NATO. But as mentioned above, in the aggregate EU military spending still exceeds what Russia has to maintain its military.
-European nations have a long, long history of not getting along so well. Is a few decades of European Union enough to hold them together if times get tough?
-How willing will Germany be bankroll an isolated EU?

Interesting to think about how Great Britain might react in the overall scenario. They have close ties to the US and have decided to leave the EU. If Canada and England were to maintain close ties to the US, Australia might attempt to as well.

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