House questions in a new political order

All the different ways of solving the shelter problem. To be static or mobile? Roots, legs, or wheels?
Hristo Botev
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Hristo Botev »

Alphaville wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:31 am
mars colonies are more of a pk dick thing but i’m sure bezos grew up under his influence.
Perhaps; but we do have the world's richest ($200 billion) man thinking this is actually doable and willing to invest his own money to make it happen. Personally, I shutter to think what that world would look like, and I'd opt to live in filth with limited resources rather than under the rule of Bezos and his ilk. If this is Orwell, I'll take the proles. For Huxley, put me on the reservation.

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Alphaville
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Alphaville »

Hristo Botev wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 8:41 am
If this is Orwell, I'll take the proles. For Huxley, put me on the reservation.
i used to idealize those things too, but then i actually tried them and realized ideals are fictions, and the actual things were neither ideal nor for me. then again everyone is different, so those things might actually work for you.

now i’ve now been trying to avoid, for months, reading pema chödrön’s “the wisdom of no escape.” the title appeals to me and fills me with dread at the same time. eventually one has to face the facts however: there really is no escape, and the question for me is how to live under those conditions.

so, as i’m getting my systems organized post-plague, i will have to apply ass to chair and take a look at that... eventually, some day, not right now, i’m so busy... :lol:

CS
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by CS »

@JollyScot
I'm read enough Hamish McBeth to want to come to Scotland as it is! Sorry to hear about the chaos going on right now.

An aside - did you hear about the Scottish Wiki drama? Someone on twitter said they think this person did more damage to the Scottish language that anyone else in history. Apparently Wiki is used to teach AI. https://nypost.com/2020/08/26/most-of-s ... ke-accent/

@Jean
Good to know. Hopefully the neighbors find a way to solve their issue without demanding a water pipeline from Switzerland much as we have CA draining all the water from Colorado. I used to fly out early in the morning from CA and my trek involved walking from the train station past a large office building in the CA desert that had perfectly green lawns. Lush, thick, green lawns. The sprinklers were usually on when I went by and I just couldn't fathom how they thought that was reasonable. It was a building in the middle of nowhere. Throw some rocks around it and call it good.

@seppia
Yes, Italy is a thought. I'm banking on our citizenship recognition coming through soon. One group has a spreadsheet of times based on past results and based on that we should hear in September or soon after. I look at our records and wonder what my great grandparents would have thought about us getting them. My great-grandfather went through a lot to come to the US and worked his entire life as a janitor.

@campitor
Yes, mobility does have those advantages. Not sure I'd have the social skills to barter well. Think that is where you team up with a good people person and let them work their magic.

As a kid I had some native american plastic figures that included a horse. I made a travis for it by hand with sticks, fabric and string and then made those guys travel around with all their stuff. Even just the little cooking pot that came with the toys and a few other things quickly filled up the travis and that was without the grown up realization of needing food and to carry the house and all the other. I still remember how frustratingly hard it was for those little bits of plastic to be self-sufficient. Also, stuff is a lot of work to deal with. Is that the lesson toys are supposed to teach children?

@alphaville
At a certain point distance will matter again. It might take a long time to get there but travel costs will become increasingly prohibitive.

@UK
I sort of shorthanded it, but China is already killing South Korean fishermen (or a few of their people and not the 'official government') over fishing areas. Long before any formal on-land thing starts, I think there will be encroachment for any resources off-shore.

-
omg, space under Bezos. No. Or anyone in that position frankly. Don't like our policies? Too bad--be quiet or we'll push you out the airlock.

Even growing up devouring science fiction, I don't understand the magical thinking when it comes to how difficult it is to survive in space and just how resource expensive. Heck even a car road trip for people is a lot and for that they don't have to pack their air, water, and every single resource they will ever need. There are some cool advances, like that fungi they found that eats radiation (https://allthatsinteresting.com/chernob ... tion-fungi) but that is more like leveraging nature's immense power than anything we did.

@hristo
Yes, it is definitely an exercise in dystopia thinking.

If you like fiction related dystopia lenses, a good book is The Windup Girl by Paolo Bacigalupi. I found it dense and hard to get into but in the end was worth the effort. Looking at the Wiki for it I wish I had read that first because he doesn't waste a lot of page real estate introducing the reader to the world and it took me a long time to feel orientated.

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Alphaville
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Re: House questions in a new political order

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CS wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 9:52 am
@alphaville
At a certain point distance will matter again. It might take a long time to get there but travel costs will become increasingly prohibitive.
i’m not so sure of that. again, in a state of global chaos, we’re more likely to take shortcuts and do what is expedient regardless of long-term consequences.

e.g., there are plenty of coal reserves in the world, but demand is shifting elsewhere due to environmental concerns. without any global environmental agreement or standard, getting one’s hands on cheap dirty energy might become the prime directive for the major powers. same thing with nuclear proliferation and nuclear waste disposal. treaty? what treaty? then kill 2 birds with 1 stone and dump radioactive waste on the enemy?

again i tend to see a lot of upside in the existence of an international order, and a lot of downside in its disintegration. that something else may eventually rise from the ashes at the other end of the ensuing carnage offers no consolation to me in the present.

CS
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by CS »

@alphaville
Without any children of my own, I think it is a bit easier to take comfort in the long term. Actually, I don't think it is comfort more than acceptance...? I think I had an existential crisis at 17 and realized none of any of this matters. So there is that part of my brain. The other part, that likes getting up and having coffee and friends and living wants to have good rest of life. How do those two pieces exist in the same head?

ETA - all those negative things you listed sound more than likely based on what the people on Easter Island did to each other in the end. Oh so ugly.

I completely agree with you on international order. If nothing else, conflict further wastes resources we cannot afford to. This thought experiment was just a 'what if' not a 'I want.'

@IlliniDave
Good info about China and Russia. Thankfully that meteor is pretty small but it really does put a cherry on 2020 doesn't it? Or that might be optimistic since the writers haven't even done anything with the Murder Hornets, or December in general.

Papers of Indenture
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Papers of Indenture »

The best strategy for a normal person, who has not accumulated enough wealth yet to move wherever they want, is to live within close proximity of family and close (old, bonded) friends. And to have a lot of those. Make your household multi-generational. Be tight with the neighbors. Be a part of a closely knit church or some other type of robust fraternal institution. As long as you're not in a seriously compromised geographic location this is probably the safest bet.

Mobile is a good short term strategy but mobile populations become out groups over time and must become insular.

There's all sorts of cool strategically located places to move to but you better work hard to make yourself a trusted member of the community. If you're a loner type outsider with no roots there and no friends/family you're in for a rough time. If you're bringing a large family along with you that's probably better. If you think you're going to hide out in the middle of nowhere and feed yourself I hope you grew up on a farm and already have a deep first hand understanding of agriculture and husbandry.
Last edited by Papers of Indenture on Fri Aug 28, 2020 10:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by jacob »

It should be noted that the Mediterranean countries are all on the "ground zero" list in terms of increasing wildfires, heat waves, chronic water shortages, desertification/loss of farmland, and a higher rate of incoming refugees from further south. The main difference between the EU-Med and the US-SW in terms of those issues are culture, politics, and existing laws/norms. We already see these issues qualitatively (they happen occasionally but they're yet to be a constant or defining feature), but quantitatively these costs will get materially worse going from 1.0C (now) over 1.5C (2035ish) to 2.0C (2045ish) and 3.0C (2060ish) looking increasingly like Northern Africa. This could conceivably create a split between EU-North and EU-South or alternatively some compromise in which the north might provide money, food, and water to the south in exchange for reclosing the internal (national/Schengen) borders to internal migrants. Cf. US situation today.

IlliniDave
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by IlliniDave »

jacob wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 10:44 am
It should be noted that the Mediterranean countries are all on the "ground zero" list ...
That's sort of why my instinct is to stake a claim, so to speak, as far north as is practical (have to be able to live there now as well as the future). It's much more about having a place for my clan (descendants, and should an SO ever materialize, whomever she might add to the mix). What Papers of Indenture talks about factors in--get a place in a social structure established. I wonder how well someone who just tries to helicopter in with money at the 11th hour might fare when times get tough even in the viable ecosystems. I dearly want to cling on in that little strip of MN north of L Superior, and I am reasonable certain it would be fine until the sun sets on me. But iirc it was right on the edge of the devastation in some of the predictions, and I suspect the error bars on those maps are pretty large. It's viability might not last long after me (or I suppose it might go on for a few more generations).

There are other reasons besides changing ecosystems that would tend to drive me further north, but in the scenario as laid out staying ahead of decaying ecosystems is the one thing that might drive me out of the US.

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Alphaville
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Alphaville »

@cs

hahaha, we must have grown up under similar late cold war scenarios of nuclear annihilation in the immediate future.

i suppose we all face that scenario one way or another though, since we all want to enjoy life, but old age and sickness and death get everyone eventually, and have done so since time immemorial. and yet looking at it on a planetary scale rather than an individual basis makes it more terrifying—especially as a teenager, which makes a mark.

against death there are always the consolations of philosophy i suppose. which for me are insufficient, but i’ll take whatever helps :lol:

and i don’t know what happened in easter island. i searched a little but found no clear answer. mutual assured destruction?

anyway, i got that it wasn’t your wish, except maybe my outlook is more “doomtastic” and truly think there will be nowhere to run to. @papers of indenture’s strategy probably would work best.

@jacob:

northern europe is on russia’s doorstep though... ask the finns. and with no nato at hand—who or what stops russia?

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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by JollyScot »

@CS

Yeah it is what it is, I am not sure it is any worse than any other country. Immigration issues are out of sight for most people so also out of mind. Very few will actually ever care unless something lands on their doorstep. I didn't appreciate it, I am sure there are some in US that are still on some kind of non-secure permission. For most people they will just pass over it.

Just a point of saying that actually you can't just head where you like. Then even if you do manage to move, no guarantee you'll be able to stay. I would say look for a comparatively well defined system and head for that over anything else.

Somewhere where you can get a decent bit of land and access to water. The vast majority of people will never move. Then those who do are typically less aware as to how quickly the rug can be pulled out from under them.

If you ignore that side of things though, then yeah Scotland is a decent choice. Could have better soil and crop choices, but enough to have a good outcome in the longer run I think. US is sufficiently large that there is probably no point moving from there, or if you do there are much much larger issues going on.

CS
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by CS »

@ffj
This post was motivated by the Catton book Overshoot, not Rachel Maddow. If I went by what she said as gospel, life will be just fine if Trump is taken out. The Catton book talked problems that will not fine, no matter who is president. Thanks for all the good info.

Being 'gray' seems like a good strategy no matter what. Whatever social upside there is to bling, I cannot image it outweighing the target it places on you.

@jacob
Yes, the pressures from south in the EU are reverberating through politics now aren't they? The news here has been quiet about that lately or maybe there are just too many closer dramas taking up space.
What does Cf mean, in context of "Cf. US situation today."?

@alphaville
According to the book Overshoot, when Easter Island exceeded it's carrying capacity the warring factors further did things to make it worse like sabotaging the other's crops (already not enough food) and other things just horrifying like hunting people for food.

Yes, lol, I did grow up with all the nuclear movies back in the day when there was no cable and any TV watchers around (i.e. most of us) had a good chance watched one or more of those movies. We also had old films in school of the under the desk drills experienced by the prior generation. That trauma, and learning about the holocaust had lasting impact on my worldview. Any kind of racism triggers a deep reaction.

@jollyScot
What does this sentence mean i.e. can you say it in a different way - "I didn't appreciate it, I am sure there are some in US that are still on some kind of non-secure permission." Sorry if I'm being obtuse - its not intentional.

Yes, the US has a lot of pluses but the unrest is hitting close to home here and it is frightening. I do not like guns, and even knives give me the willies (I cannot tell you where that came from.)

@PoI
Good points. Have some thoughts about staying here and moving further north with land etc. There are some writer groups with at least a few members up there. The extended family is nearer the metro and the rest spread east and across the country - an offshoot of the mobility we do have.

CS
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by CS »

@ffj
Also, this particular scenario was chosen because of its non-zero chance of happening. It also seemed to be one of the ones that moved shifting political powers the faster, i.e. of most immediate concern. As I said, I'd be happy to discuss other ones.

UK-with-kids
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by UK-with-kids »

Alphaville wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:48 am
in the case of a destabilized global order i could see china mobilizing military might and installing favorable political regimes, i.e., politically colonizing australia and new zealand. why not?

i don’t see the decline and fall of american hegemony as a good thing. i’m not referring to national interests, but rather of the stabilizing global force of the usa and nato and the gradual advancement of democracy. i do cherish the notion of individual human rights, and i think so far this was our best hope for them, warts and all. europe has that promise too but but without sufficient power we don’t know where that’s going. (eta: eurasia?).

we’re sort of accustomed/adapted to this pax americana, in spite of the problems it presents, and i regard any period of future global political readjustment with great dread, particularly when faced with authoritarian powers filling the vacuum.
There's a widespread bias against China (and Russia) that's based on very simplified stereotypes, and reinforced by what I can only describe as propaganda on the mainstream news. Part of it is worldview about whose political set up is 'right', or a clash of civilisations to put it another way. I've never been to Russia but I've spent some time in China. The Chinese civilisation is very old and sophisticated, and the people are not openly aggressive or violent in the way I've experienced in Western countries. If you asked the average person in Asia, Africa, and perhaps some other places whether they would rather come under American or Chinese influence, their experiences may well favour China.

I find it ironic that Orwell's 1984 is mentioned on this thread but people seem to fear this faceless overseas enemy that is described on the news every day as corrupt, polluting, autocratic, poisoning their opponents and so on. But it's really the day to day experiences that make your life feel safe or happy, not whether the local politicians say they believe in human rights. New Zealand is a long way from Beijing.

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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by jacob »

+1 to JollyScot's comments on immigration. There's a reason why so many expats are "digital nomads". They're nomads because they're subject to tourist visas and thus constantly on the move. And they're digital because tourist visas don't allow local sources of income that might take the job of a native. Those who "just move to another country" either have a passport (thanks to ancestors or marriage) or they need to put down a lot of money into real estate (buying a wine castle) or demonstrate income that is 2-3x of the average of the natives. Most have limited choices in terms of where they can go. If everybody had a lot of [permanent] choices, the world wouldn't have a refugee problem.

The list of countries that allow for permanent immigration is rather limited unless you have $500k+ to put towards the right visa which vastly expands the possibilities. Most countries are still welcoming towards humans who can put down half a mill in cash for a permit. Even if you are admitted as a permanent resident, you might suddenly find your situation less secure if the national tone towards immigration changes---which it tends to do when times are bad. "Permanent" might also not mean what you think it means. Neither does citizenship. Some people will always make the distinction between "real" and "acquired" and this could go against you.

Native attitudes may also change. It takes roughly 30 seconds for someone to pick up on my not-100%-native accent and ask where I'm from. This can lead to either "oh, how cool!" or "are you here legally?" depending on how the national tone is set and who is asking. In seeing how people's attitudes to immigrants from other countries (Iran, Syria, China, ...) change---despite however many decades they've lived here---depending on the change of declared and perceived allies and enemies, I worry what a US/Danish conflict over Arctic resources will do in terms of how people see me.

In short, being an immigrant means that one de facto acquires minority status, and minorities often become the whipping boy of either national or personal politics, when times are bad. Before this turns into an immigration debate, let me just be clear that pressure increases the in-group/out-group stress. For example, in Illinois we have Chicago vs not-Chicago. In New York, there's a similar conflict including an upstate/downstate differentiation. Any easily identifiable difference will serve when people tribal up.

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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by UK-with-kids »

CS wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:44 pm
@UK
New Zealand is hard to get in unless young and skilled. The minimum points are high (harder than Canada). Not sure how low the population density really is in relation to their resources. There is already a lot of pressure (from what friends have told me) from those who can afford million dollar houses (for not much house at all) versus those getting preventable diseases because the rental conditions are so bad for the low income. There is also China, as @IlliniDave mentioned.
There are also special visas for investors, including visas for rich retirees. This might work for somebody who quit a conventional life for ERE and has had a pot of money snowballing for a while, or who can perhaps sell their high value home in Europe or the US.

Edit: I see @Jacob covered this subject as well while I was writing this.

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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by JollyScot »

No thats fine. So previously I didn't appreciate that even if you follow the rules pay your dues and try to intergrate. There is still a non zero chance that you could have everything stripped away from you rights wise. After our immigration issues we had a proper look through the stories of such people. Those in the country for 60+ years, highly skilled who legally corrected a tax form, Individuals who was caught on some minor offence, retroactive changes to rules. All resulting in people being deported.

There are a multitude of people in their new "home" on a visa that is not 100% permanent. If it ever comes that this is suddenly not so secure then in an alarmingly large number of cases there won't be anyone to make a stand for you. If populism rises don't assume the majority will stand with you, history suggest those who would are in the minority. So I am far more concerned when I look now as to exactly what the path to staying permanently is and exactly how many cases of bad actions are occuring.

For example UK is particularly poor for this at the moment, whereas Canada seems particularly good. People should place this higher on the list of things to worry about if moving. I think a lot, as I did, just assume it will all be fine, maybe, maybe not. If it is maybe not, then whats the worst case. Typically it is not good.

Hristo Botev
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Hristo Botev »

UK-with-kids wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:14 pm
I find it ironic that Orwell's 1984 is mentioned on this thread but people seem to fear this faceless overseas enemy that is described on the news every day as corrupt, polluting, autocratic, poisoning their opponents and so on. But it's really the day to day experiences that make your life feel safe or happy, not whether the local politicians say they believe in human rights.
If you're referring to my 1984 references, I'm not sure what the irony is. It's exactly Orwell's point that Oceania needed to create fear among its citizens of a faceless overseas enemy. In my country (the US), apparently depending on which "side" is behind the particular narrative, sometimes that enemy is Russia (We have always been at war with Eurasia), and sometimes it's China (We have always been at war with Eastasia). This narrative of course falls apart when that enemy ceases to be faceless. My point in bringing up 1984 is specifically because of the dystopic and hyperbolic assumptions in the OP's thought experiment--i.e., if Trump wins a second term then the US is going to become an autocracy in the manner of Putin's Russia and will in fact become a satellite puppet government of Russia and the entire world order will fall to shit: so, what do you do? It's a fun thought experiment and I assume OP meant the assumptions to be a little hyperbolic. Nevertheless, my answer: just stick with the ERE plan and stay where you are.

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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by CS »

@hristo
Yes, taking things to the extreme scenario can expose more than just minor changes.

@UK
Not that huge a pot of money for me, alas.

Yes, regarding China, it's easy to forget it's rich long history. The current culture has such a strong foot print on the consciousness.

@Jacob, JollyScot

Good points about permanence not being permanent. I think a lot of Jewish people/minorities made that mistake in 1930's Germany. The cognitive dissonance being too much to overcome that things could really change that much, that fast. The difference being they were not allowed to leave after their status was stripped versus being forced back into dangerous situations such as Honduras.

Another thing selfish reason for this discussion is the limited time left to make such decisions before aging out or losing the recent enough work experience status to make a change. It does seem all extreme, but gathering as much information before making a decision is a defacto operating tactic on my end.

The sooner a region hit the high resource pressure, the sooner the tribalism hits so it seemed reasonable to know where the pressures are the lowest, at least for now and the foreseeable future.

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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by UK-with-kids »

Hristo Botev wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:44 pm
If you're referring to my 1984 references, I'm not sure what the irony is. It's exactly Orwell's point that Oceania needed to create fear among its citizens of a faceless overseas enemy.
I meant it's ironic if the scenario unfolds as described, i.e. that America has gone "bad", but people have already absorbed the Orwellian propaganda pumped out by that "bad" place they live now, to the extent they believe China is even more "bad", and so they wouldn't even move to the safe haven of New Zealand in case it came into China's zone of influence. Even though the propaganda wasn't true. And so they stay in the "bad" country at home instead.

I probably didn't explain myself very well the first time, but I hope that makes more sense now.

Hristo Botev
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Hristo Botev »

The references in this thread to Mormons and the Jewish people I think are interesting. I'd add the Armenians. I think we can probably learn a lot from diasporan populations that have survived and thrived through all sorts of upheaval. I know I've railed elsewhere on here against tribalism, but there's something to be said for tribalism in the diasporan manner--engaging with the community at large, but only to a point, relying principally on your own "tribe" of close-knit folks with whom you share a faith, a culture, and common values.

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