House questions in a new political order

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CS
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House questions in a new political order

Post by CS »

I don't want this thread to devolve into politics, so the parameters are set as assumptions. Under those listed below, where would you live?

Please note: These are hypothetical assumptions. I'd be happy to have additional discussions under different assumptions. And yes, much of this has been talked about prior on this board but not for these exact circumstances. The question is do these particular conditions change anyone's thoughts.

1. In the US, Trump wins the next election
2. The US officially becomes autocracy like Putin's Russian.
3. In fact, the US becomes aligned with Russia, so that the US support military support of Europe is no longer guaranteed. Let's assume it's gone. Ditto for support for South Korea against North Korea.
4. The national heathcare law is revoked - i.e. you cannot get health insurance on the marketplace anymore, or with pre-existing conditions, covid being one of them.
5. Global climate changes continues on trajectory - In the US fire and water problems increase to the west and south, hurricanes increase, and loss of Florida land and other costal areas speeds up. In Europe, fresh water becomes an issue as the glacial freshwater reserves disappear. I don't know enough detail about other regions to speak of them.
6. Food insecurity increases steadily with bad crops, as have already popped up in China and elsewhere this year with the recall of dogs in North Korea, etc
6B. You have a timeline of 20-40 years. Edited because I didn't renumber correctly when adding to the list
7. Food security and population density as well as temperatures are important, i.e. can you live in that location without fuel or little fuel for air conditioning or heating. Ironically (to me), it seems the air conditioning is the biggest one in some areas unless there is a way to live in a cave underground. Humans can self-heat small spaces with enough clothing, food and insulation.

A lot of countries require young skilled workers for enough points for permanent immigration - a hard combination to achieve, hence the competition.
Last edited by CS on Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:00 pm, edited 4 times in total.

CS
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by CS »

On a personal, non-scientific level, I've seen several skilled workers return from New Zealand and not stay there. Of course that was under past circumstances.

Also, a physicist friend I have loves the US because surviving, even for low ability people, is so much easier than where he came from. The discussion was at the level of 'they can feed themselves.'

ertyu
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by ertyu »

greenland. the us (or us corporates) would try to encroach on canada, but greenland has eu affiliations and might be trickier.

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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by 2Birds1Stone »

I would be chilling in southern Portugal.

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Last edited by Dream of Freedom on Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Dream of Freedom
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Dream of Freedom »

Maybe set up shop in a finished basement for thermal regulation. Get a garden and raise some rabbits for food.

Hristo Botev
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Hristo Botev »

I'd say if you are already in the US away from the coasts and relatively high above sea level, and somewhere with relatively moderate winters and summers that you could get through without much energy needed for heating or cooling if needed, and someplace that is relatively densely populated with most resources necessary for living within walking/biking distance, and someplace with relatively consistent rainfall, then stay put. Focus on staying under the radar in a very modest house and build a reputation as someone with a wide variety of skills who can help a neighbor out, grow some of your own food (and learn how to cook and preserve it, and also share it with neighbors), re-engineer and rediscover old technology to survive in a post-industrial world (and spend the next few years collecting that technology and developing the skills needed to use the technology), focus on taking exceptionally good care of your health (but not in a way that will cause you to stand out in a crowd), etc. Basically, see Greer's Long Descent.

Also, buy at least one gun and learn how to use it, but don't tell anyone you have it.

Also also, remove any and all yard signs from your house that might indicate what thoughtcrimes you are in the process of committing.

*Note that in the spirit of fully participating in this particular thought exercise I replaced Trump with Biden/Harris, and Russia with China. And for No. 4 I replaced revoking the healthcare law with expanding it to a nationalized healthcare system.

CS
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by CS »

@DOF
I'm definitely worried about after election violence. No matter what happens this election, the US is much poorer than it has ever been and things will only get worse. Other blaming seems to be coming no matter what. There are just not enough resources. So this election, or the next or the one after it. I think there is some thinking everything will be 'fixed' if a different candidate is elected but as you said the physically unsolvable problems aren't going away no matter who is in power.

I drive my old car once a week to keep the battery charged and to keep it from breaking down completely. Saw a huge pickup truck without plates cruising around. That, and all the reading I've been doing gave me a good fright. Sleeping well is not happening.

Did some gardening recently - enough to learn the necessity of canning! We have a ton of rabbits naturally, this year anyhow. The predators are also showing up more (birds and coyotes) so unless we capture some rabbits and raise them ourselves, I think there will many fewer next year.

@ertyu
Greenland also has some advantage of distance (but not much) from the US.

South Korean fishermen are already being slaughtered under resource competition.

@2B
Not worried about invasions from the East?

@Hristo - thought crimes == Political affiliations?
Also, I like your thought experiment but how does a Nationalized Health care system change things for you? That one I didn't understand in regards to careful attention to one's health versus relying on the 'system.'

CS
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by CS »

@histro
Thanks for the book recommendation... it's going on the list.

Hristo Botev
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Hristo Botev »

CS wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:32 pm
@Hristo - thought crimes == Political affiliations?
I understood your assumptions as living in a world where there were no political affiliations; you're either with us or you're sent to the Ministry of Love (or perhaps just straight to Room 101). I was thinking more like a manger scene at Christmas, or an American (or Gadsden) flag, or a "thin blue line" flag, or for that matter a Crucifix in your house or a St. Francis statute in your garden, etc. Or if the other side wins the culture war, then a BLM sign, or a "Love is Love" sign, or a Rainbow flag, etc.
CS wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:32 pm
Also, I like your thought experiment but how does a Nationalized Health care system change things for you? That one I didn't understand in regards to careful attention to one's health versus relying on the 'system.'
I'm assuming nationalized health care will look like it does/did in the small handful of former Soviet-bloc countries I've visited and lived in, which is to say, you're better off not going. (If this were an Orwell novel, he'd refer to it as the Ministry of Health, because that's where you go to get sick.) SO, you better (a) get and stay healthy, and (b) learn some advanced first aid, and specifically learn how to take care of yourself when antibiotics and other common pharmaceuticals are no longer available to you.

Hristo Botev
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Hristo Botev »

CS wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:43 pm
@histro
Thanks for the book recommendation... it's going on the list.
That was a @mooretrees recommendation; and a very good one.

tsch
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by tsch »

I have been thinking about climate change and unsustainable culture in general for years. But these kinds of potential political scenarios have pushed me into action. I am literally betting it all on the far northwest of the California coast and am on a trajectory to move during the second half of September.

For 1, 2, 3, and 4—I don't know. I was also looking at the OR coast, and had a strong gut feeling that I wanted to stay in CA. (INFJ here; lots of data points interconnecting but not rationally expressed, masquerading as "good intuition"). I don't want to be totally nomadic, don't want to burn through my funds to visit far-flung places to evaluate them (the map is not the territory). For #4, I need to choose a place I can take good care of myself, but have been lately working from the mantra "the government is not going to save you".

For 5, I paid a lot of attention to risks for wildfire, tsunami, heat, and drought. There will still probably be drought, but drought in a climate that gets 70+ inches of rain a year is easier to handle on a personal level (gardening, etc.) than a climate where 38 inches is (used to be) the norm.

For 6a, locally choosing a place I can do permaculture (it will be small scale, small town lot Gaia's Garden-style). Accepting that being out of a large metro area means planning ahead for various things...storing food, having tools, not chucking fix-it materials into the "recycle" bin. I'll also be looking into Azure Standard.

For 6b, counting on the coast being a mitigating factor on the heat and drought that interior regions will face. Betting that property values will go up as more people wise up, and that, while I'd like to think I've got my forever place, it might instead be a stepping stone for the more remote off-grid life of my dreams.

7 - this is exactly my thinking. Livable climate. A small bicycle-friendly town seems like a good bet for access to resources but avoiding the problems of a huge population suddenly without resources.

The other thing I would add to this is connectivity. For the past 6 years I've been working remotely via satellite internet. (I live up a semi-rural lane that lacks any cable, and is also in something of a cell dead zone.) People think they can just get a satellite connection anywhere, but that's not true, and waiting for page loads sucks (esp. when you're paying paying $170/month for the privlege). Web apps just keep adding on more and more crap that has to load, and the "beam" that the provider puts you on can only handle so many users. In my neighborhood, they won't even install more accounts at this point, and with everyone working from home...just figure this into your thinking if you make a living doing anything online.

Isolation and lack of community will be another one, and the political climate doesn't do a lot to help with that, so I am thinking about how to build or grow that. The problem with moving into a new town is that I am blatantly being an opportunist...I can afford to buy there, which I can't do here. I can take my job with me. I have scads of privilege in being able to pick up and move. I feel like I also have a responsibility to be of service in helping the new-to-me community in preparing for what is to come.

Resources that have been helpful to me:

- Climate change projection; click on a city and it shows you what current city it will be like; it does not include many cities right along the west coast, however: https://fitzlab.shinyapps.io/cityapp/

- Sea level rise simulator: https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/ ... dAccretion

- Compare cities (for current conditions; I like to look at rainfall comparisons, temps, snowfall, etc):
https://www.bestplaces.net/compare-cities/

- California hazards map: https://myhazards.caloes.ca.gov/
There are other regional (in the US, state) resources for this kind of thing

- FCC broadband providers - faster than finding the local providers via other searches, but then you can confirm with those after doing an initial pass here:
https://broadbandmap.fcc.gov/#/location ... 04&vzoom=3

Other places that I gave some consideration to were the upper peninsula of Michigan (which I'd probably check out in person if I lived in that part of the country), and The Dalles area of Oregon (I this idea that looking for places with large data centers pointed to places where energy and connectivity would be plentiful and possibly jobs, but I really really hate AC.)

If you are searching for opinions on specific towns and such, you will likely run into the city-data forums. I would take anything said there with a grain of salt. There is a lot of coded racism and other stuff there (I have found towns described there as "safe" to be disturbingly diversity-impoverished).

God knows I'm not infallible and a lot could go wrong, but as I drove back here from putting in an offer on a place there, observing various wildfire plumes, I felt and continue to feel pretty good about this decision.

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Jean
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Jean »

In the US, i'de go to northern michigan. A quite live and let live mentality, abundance of water, many possible crops.
In Europe, I'de aim for switzerland or scandinavia for basicaly the same reason.
Politic has become to unpredictable to make any plan according to it. I'de base my choice on climate and demographics.

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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by sky »

I personally will stay where I am now.

If I were to take on the role of someone living in the desert or a major metro, I would move to Manistee or Ludington, Michigan, in a low cost home within bicycling distance from a low cost grocery store and a library. I would avoid politics and maybe get a part time job in a food service business where I can get some meals for free. I would spend a lot of time at the beach, swimming, and bicycling. I might start fishing off the pier and set up a fish smoker. I might do some volunteer work to meet people, for example at a senior center kitchen, and to yogi some free meals. If I could split up my house, I might rent a room as an airbnb or other rental. I might try busking during tourist season.

Alphaville
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Alphaville »

under first 6 conditions from OP, canada sounds nice if they’d take me, but i might feel there’s no point in going anywhere because all hell would break loose everywhere so that condition 7 wouldn’t matter?

CS
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by CS »

@tsch
Wow, a lot of useful links. That internet cost is freakin' high.

Didn't the Dalles just have a massive fire? Some kid is being held personally responsible. I think that is the location because I was going to drive out for a job and ended up flying so I didn't spend two days in a car driving through smoke. I could have worn a mask but I doubt my cat would have tolerated wearing one, lol!

@sky and @tsch
No idea the UP of Michigan was such a good place. One of the few things I know about that state is the roads are poor but most people here would bike/walk anyhow.

@Jean
Yes, water seems to be one of the soonest stressed resources. I've read else where that Switzerland is a good choice because of the milder climax. They have more water too?

@alphaville
I guess it depends on how fast the descent is. Canada is appealing but could never rebuff the United States if they decide to become aggressive. I thought I read it took a few hundred years for Rome to fall. They were only dealing with population and disease though and not the additional multipliers of fossil fuel and climate change. Actually, I think there were some temperature fluctuations that affected them too but the details are fuzzy.

classical_Liberal
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by classical_Liberal »

CS wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:08 pm
Actually, I think there were some temperature fluctuations that affected them too but the details are fuzzy.
No once, but twice. The Eastern empire was poised to reunite (forcibly) under Justinian circa 540 AD, and BAM, relatively quick climate change and a plague. 25-100 million dead is the estimate.

To keep on topic, I really think there are only two general macro-strategies here. I call them "hunker down" and "be mobile". If you are going to hunker down, location, social groups, and tools are super important. If you choose to stay mobile then I think skillset, adaptability, and emotional stability to leave behind is important.

I will say, I got super lucky to be where I am now during the COVID, BLM protests, and culture war that is happening through the US. My daily life is relatively unchanged by outside circumstances. While I have always thought of lifestyle options over stability of an area in my chosen place to live, that is going to change in the future.

IlliniDave
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by IlliniDave »

Interesting scenario. I haven't read past the OP in the thread.

Internationally China is still the elephant in the room. Europe (as a union or individually) would have to pick between China and US-Russia. If I read correctly it's implied that the US becomes an enemy of Europe. Russia adds an economy about the size of that of Texas I believe, and some moderately disproportionate military muscle but far short of the old USSR. They are also well positioned (albeit probably more than 40 years out I think) as the earth warms (as is Canada).

From my own personal situation the following weighs significantly:

-I have more than just myself to be concerned with.
-I have no current desire to relocate to a different nation/continent.

A strategic hypothesis:
-In remote places most people don't want to be, the probability of being hassled declines.

So I'd just go to Illinois and look after my dad as I plan until that is no longer necessary. In parallel I'd expand my footprint in NE MN and see if I could get at least some of my progeny to relocate there as well. Reasons are climate (easier to cope with cold than heat), abundance of fresh water, and some skills that could supplement food procurement. If for some reason the US truly became intolerable, I'd look at N. Ontario in Canada. Problem is my kids and their spouses will go to the bottom of the list and last time I checked would be on a 10-15 year wait list for them to immigrate. I'd don't know if Canada still has a provision that a retiree that can deposit enough money in a Canadian financial institution is fast tracked for residency as long as they don't have any other admissibility problems. If not, I'll never get in and will just have to gut it out in the US Northwoods. And to be honest, I'm not sure my understanding of that path existing at least in the past is correct.

Any of the states that have remote areas that border Canada including Alaska are possible alternatives. Assuming I could immigrate there, several other Canadian provinces could be considered as emergency options along with Ontario.

Worth thinking about some more. This isn't an outcome I've devoted much time to pondering.

Alphaville
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by Alphaville »

CS wrote:
Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:08 pm
@alphaville
I guess it depends on how fast the descent is. Canada is appealing but could never rebuff the United States if they decide to become aggressive. I thought I read it took a few hundred years for Rome to fall. They were only dealing with population and disease though and not the additional multipliers of fossil fuel and climate change. Actually, I think there were some temperature fluctuations that affected them too but the details are fuzzy.
yeah i figured if the usa becomes autocratic, overhot & desertified, what’s to keep us from seeking “lebensraum” in the cooler north? “rejoin alaska” or something. we did it already in the xix century with texas, then mexican war and finally the extermination of indian tribes. plus all those troops returning from europe and asia would need a new mission. so canada would be no safe refuge— at best, they’d be annexed politically and forced to absorb migration; at worst, it would be conquest. frankly we could take over the whole continent. time to invest in patagonian timeshares?

but seriously, it would be a horror. why would i want to endure 40 years of that?

UK-with-kids
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Re: House questions in a new political order

Post by UK-with-kids »

I'm not sure why the answer isn't just New Zealand. Low population density, English speaking, beautiful country, plenty of water, universal good quality healthcare, a long way from everywhere else...

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