Dmitry Orlov

[jacob]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ecfxl1wZDpE

Never realized he was this funny in person. Has a blog too, here
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/

[cheese]

Higher quality version (can read the slides): https://vimeo.com/25262968

[sky]

A gift economy assumes a surplus. I can't get more than an occasional salad out of my garden.

[oldbeyond]

He has some tips for living through collapse that seem very much compatible with ERE(an approach heavy on skills, relationships and lateral thinking).

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1E9t ... view?pli=1

There's also a lot more concerning the parable between the US and the USSR that is made in the video here:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1M56 ... view?pli=1

Very interesting angle on how efficiency relates to resilience, applied to national economies.

EDIT: posted the same link twice, now correct

[jacob]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsnYjKLpWKE

[J_]

Jacob, the ideas of Dmitry are confusing/disturbing/destructing my myth of how things will be in future.
I see/suppose that his ideas are not only "funny" but are close to how your ideas have further developed after writing your Ere book, as I continue to read your warnings/ideas/reactions in the forum.
And I feel that I can better change my myth, and start working further to internalize your more recent ideas. As so to the point/elegant formulated by Dmitry.
Perhaps it is time Jacob, that you use your gift of education to write a sequel to your first book.

[jacob]

@J_ Actually, that book would be more of a prequel to ERE. These ideas/insights/change of myth came before ERE for me. ERE was a solution.

[J_]

Ok, let's call it a prequel, a good dosed and composed prequel, would be wonderful... if the timing comes that you are willing to write it.
But I am also happy with your activities now in the forum.. I should not ask too much, you give already such a lot. Thanks.

[jacob]

@J_ - I'm not very good at predicting my personal future (the overall future is much easier) so maybe I will eventually write such a book. I was active in the strategic resource/ecology space between 2001 and 2005ish. I was even invited to join ASPO in 2005 but declined because I thought that providing additional information was mostly preaching to the choir. Also because of the perceived need to focus more on physics for personal career-reasons

Since then many other notable speakers have popped up. Many of these guys have written books or given talks very similar to what I used to blog about or what I would write [yet another] book on. It's interesting to see how we all come to the same conclusions wrt what needs to be done. Shortly after 2005, though, I started focusing a lot more on how these issues could be resolved at the personal level as it was clear [to me] that the reactive preference at the policy level would always be too late. These considerations resulted in ERE.

Since people are still very strongly divided on the issues of finite resources due to the conflict between reality-based thinking and ideologically-based thinking, I opted to keep this contention entirely out of ERE and find a dual solution that would work both in the optimistic case as well as in the pessimistic case as this would create a substantially larger "choir" of people making the correct decisions given the future even if they were doing them for the potentially and/or likely wrong reasons. In other words, ERE was intended to create a heads ERE wins/tails ERE still wins outcome.

Also see, http://earlyretirementextreme.com/myths ... uture.html

PS: I did contribute a chapter on energy/thermodynamics in an anthology published back in 2005.
http://www.amazon.com/Final-Energy-Cris ... 0745320929

[Chad]

I find Dmitry to be a bit pompous and self righteous, and highly biased. After reading Post Soviet Lessons for a Post American Century I'm not overly optimistic his overall predictions are that accurate. He definitely has some interesting and valid points, but it's telling when he follows every Russian failure/negative with a supposed worse American failure/negative. The US is worse every time? I'm not arguing there aren't areas where this isn't true. I am suggesting he colors the picture only half based in fact. For instance:

Differences between the Superpowers: Labor Profile

The Soviet Union was entirely self-sufficient when it came to labor. Both before and after the collapse, skilled labor was one of its main exports, along with oil, weapons, and industrial machinery. Not so with the United States, where not only is most of the manufacturing being carried out abroad, but a lot of service back home is being provided by immigrants as well. This runs the gamut from farm labor, landscaping, and office cleaning to the professions, such as engineering and medicine, without which society and its infrastructure would unravel. Most of these people came to the United States to enjoy the superior standard of living — for as long as it remains superior. Many of them will eventually head home, leaving a gaping hole in the social fabric.

I have had a chance to observe quite a few companies in the U.S. from the inside, and have spotted a certain constancy in the staffing profile. At the top, there is a group of highly compensated senior lunch-eaters. They tend to spend all of their time pleasing each other in various ways, big and small. They often hold advanced degrees in disciplines such as Technical Schmoozing and Relativistic Bean-counting. They are obsessive on the subject of money, and cultivate a posh country set atmosphere, even if they are just one generation out of the coal mines. Ask them to solve a technical problem — and they will politely demur, often taking the opportunity to flash their wit with a self-deprecating joke or two.

Somewhat further down the hierarchy are the people who actually do the work. They tend to have fewer social graces and communication skills, but they do know how to get the work done. Among them are found the technical innovators, who are often the company's raison d'être.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1M56 ... view?pli=1

So, the Soviet hierarchy/leadership wasn't the same way? Only the truly skilled and hard working people made it into the elite of the Communist Party? That's completely ridiculous.

More often than not, the senior lunch-eaters at the top are native-born Americans, and, more often than not, the ones lower down are either visiting foreigners or immigrants.

The first part of the sentence is true, but it's slowly changing. It's also not entirely odd for any country to have the majority of senior corporate level staff to be from that country. The part that is false is that foreigners/immigrants are not "more often than not" the company's raison d'être. They are definitely part of that tier within the company, no doubt, but not "more often than not."

Of course, I'm not denying my bias too. There would obviously be some form of it given that I'm an American.

I do agree with him on a significant number of points. I just find too much wrong with that paper to put much faith in Dmitry as anything more than an interesting idea generator (both good and bad ones).

[jennypenny]

"Nature doesn't respond to economic stimulus." I like that.

I think this podcast with Orlov and Kunstler is pretty entertaining. You see more of his personality.


@Chad--I get what you're saying about Orlov's pomposity, but, to me, he sounds like most of the people I've known or heard who've spent their entire lives in and around academia. He has that affected manner of speaking so many academics have. (apologies to any academics on the forum)

[J_]

@chad and @jennypenny:
I am only reacting on what I think Dmitry says in OP's topic, not his tone or patriotism.

He addresses something we in the forum does not speak much. About that what can happen if the stockpile of money which is the basis of FI is not safe anymore.

That it even is not enough when we prep for disruptions in the economic system. That it sometimes is not enough that we have the knowledge and skills of gardening, being very handy by having many other (technical)skills. That we become resilient and know a lot about good nutrition, and how to get and maintain health and fitness.
And yes that is what helps and is a very good solution. And gives a lot of satisfaction to life. And is so-well written in Jacobs book. But...

What Dmitry suggests is, I think, pay attention to have a good social ability, the art of building human networks around you, the art of giving gifts, the art of being generous.That are qualities which are of equal importance, especially if the existing economic system falls apart.

I feel that I am not very good at those qualities, and that I have to do something to gain those abilities and arts.

[jennypenny]

What Dmitry suggests is, I think, pay attention to have a good social ability, the art of building human networks around you, the art of giving gifts, the art of being generous.That are qualities which are of equal importance, especially if the existing economic system falls apart.

I feel that I am not very good at those qualities, and that I have to do something to gain those abilities and arts.

I agree with you, J_. I'm terrible at this as well. I found Orlov's discussion of the Gift economy interesting, but I can't imagine myself functioning in that kind of system. Maybe that's why I was so interested in an ERE city. If I had any shot at all of surviving in a moneyless economy, it would be with with all of you.


OTOH, not being a permanent part of a 'society' can also be beneficial. Jacob said something about it in the other thread.

This is actually a somewhat dangerous situation for the non-diversified EER as they may be perceived as being too well off compared to their less-prepared/lagging neighbours. Things like mean-testing, capital controls, and sumptuary laws come to mind. ERE should be able to "hide" better but this still might involve camouflaging oneself by working 12 hours in the turnip fields. Keep in mind that personal freedom for everybody is a rather new concept and is far from the default state of how humans have traditionally organized society.

I thought about that watching the Orlov vimeo @57:45 when he talked about dropping out of the system slowly and not defining yourself too specifically. I liked his comment about not getting pegged down "to any category that the system comfortably deals with."

So which approach gives the best chance of success? Or are they similar and I'm misunderstanding?