Taleb's New Skin In The Game Paper

[Chad]

Another interesting article on Taleb:

http://theweek.com/article/index/254694 ... lain-wrong

[Seneca]

Another interesting article on Taleb:

http://theweek.com/article/index/254694 ... lain-wrong

I think Taleb would be the first to tell you, reporters are anti-fragile and this "debate" does both of them good, not harm, unlike policy, which he treats much more carefully due to his respect for the ability to have unpredictable outcomes.

How long before it's correct to say Taleb was wrong? It seems to me we've been doing a fantastic job of kicking the can down the road and this story is yet written.

[Chad]

Whether we are kicking the can down the road or not Taleb was wrong.

[Felix]

You want to have the heart of an altruist and the brain of a libertarian, rather than the other way around.

That would describe the socialist libertarians.

[Seneca]

Whether we are kicking the can down the road or not Taleb was wrong.

Was the guy who called the crash over in Dec of 1929 right or wrong? If the market stayed flat for 5 years following overwhelming government intervention and then crashed in 1934 would the answer change?

[jacob]

I think it was Hussman (maybe he was quoting someone?) who said that the thing about calling the top is simply whether you want to look like an idiot before the top or after the top?

[Chad]

Taleb's prediction was for a year and that was almost 4 years ago. I don't see how anyone can suggest he wasn't wrong.

“So long as you see the picture of Larry Summers going to Davos, you have to stay short U.S. Treasuries for another year. It means they (the Obama administration) don’t know what’s going on,” Taleb said.

Will the shorting of US Treasuries eventually make money and be the right call? Yes, but so will a prediction about the end of the world.

I wasn't so much interested in that he was wrong. Prognostication is difficult even for the best, as Jacob points out. I was more interested in his reaction to being wrong. He seems to have become what he despises, an economist who refuses to give up his bad model when events prove him wrong.

[Felix]

It's only human. And Taleb has a large ego.

[Seneca]

..Will the shorting of US Treasuries eventually make money and be the right call? Yes, but so will a prediction about the end of the world...

Exactly. I probably should've posted this separate from the Taleb post (I agree with what Felix says) but this is what I was getting at. I was thinking about it over the weekend and came up with nothing so I was wondering what the smart people around here thought about it.

[Felix]

I agree with what Felix says.

We need to balance the force.

[jennypenny]

Econtalk podcast with Taleb about his Skin in the Game paper. Roberts is good at challenging Taleb. Apologies if this has been posted before. I love Econtalk.

http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2013/0 ... kin_i.html

[jennypenny]

If anyone listens, I'm curious what you thought of the change in honor at the top @40 minute mark and why the culture suddenly shifted. Taleb thought it was technology and Roberts thought it was due to our wealth.

[Ego]

Ramble like a mad man on the internet: people laugh at you.

Make a few billion, then ramble like a mad man on the internet: people worship you.

Money is power.

Poor guy. I think he is proving secretweath correct.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/502 ... tional.pdf

Not that he's wrong. He's just rambling like a mad man.

[jennypenny]

From now on, when someone asks me why I prep, I'm going to say it's to avoid "the uncle point-absorbing barrier of life."

I love Taleb.

[Stahlmann]

Ramble like a mad man on the internet: people laugh at you.

Make a few billion, then ramble like a mad man on the internet: people worship you.

Money is power.

I'm just missing the billions part