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Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2020 3:35 pm
by 7Wannabe5

At 1930s energy level, 80% of population in urban/suburban area is theoretically sustainable in regional boundary model. IOW, only 20% (10x more than currently) of population would be required for agricultural production. In 1930 30% of U.S. farmers worked an average of 100 days off the farm. Currently, more than 90% of farm households have non-farm income.

The default on this forum is boundary at the level of the individual. Other possibilities could be household, water shed, community, Earth. For instance,Jacob is conscientious, so he limits his individual CO2 dump to Earth atmosphere at fair share per global capita, but he obviously doesn’t track the flow of the molecules. OTOH, for instance, investment income will likely flow in from Global sized economy model to individual account. It is very important to keep track of what is real vs abstraction in your model for purposes of resilience. For simple instance, what you own vs what you possess.

Another boundary issue might be to what extent will you plan on sharing food or other resources with those with whom you exchange social or cultural capital? For instance, how might you help your sister who lives across the country vs whoever is your main squeeze at the moment vs your chess club buddies and vice versa. With whom would you prefer to be stuck overnight in an airport, etc?

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:36 pm
by jacob

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Posted: Mon Dec 28, 2020 7:24 pm
by Alphaville
A nice read-- thanks!

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Posted: Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:58 am
by 7Wannabe5

Interesting. Since my ancestors flowed into and out of a major Rust Belt city as it near “collapsed”, I wonder how likely it would be that an affluent citizen of the Roman Empire or that affluent citizen’s descendants would still be found living in reduced circumstance 60 years later in the same now collapsed city?

I know you read “American Nations” which describes the author’s take on the 11 different regional cultures of the U.S. I believe that there is a similar smaller scaled pattern to be found around the hubs of semi-collapsed cities like Detroit. Immigrants from around the world and rural folk from the South flowed into the city during its heyday, mixed it up a bit, but as they made their flights out of the city as the central industries declined, the original incoming ethnic or cultural groups remained somewhat stuck together and this is still reflected in matters such a voting patterns as much as rural vs urban. It is also the case that the most affluent urban residents of 1960 Detroit and their descendants are most likely to have flown the greatest distance away from the city and into other still prospering, growing urban areas. For instance, my paternal grandparents were educated and reasonably affluent lifelong residents of the city. Only one of their 14 grandchildren currently lives in the city and she is a cuckoo-bananas artist type who returned there for cheap rent. Most of them live in Chicago, NYC, or San Francisco area. Although there are obvious issues with racism involved in the Detroit exodus, I have found the same story to hold true for the middle class families of African-American men I have dated.

My point being that looking at a pin on a map might not be best method for tracking the rise and fall of cultural or economic capital.

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:14 am
by jacob
@7wb5 - Yeah, I think it holds that people who mobile capital (money and brains) tend to move much more easily than people with anchored capital (social and cultural). This is seen intranation in the BFE (read e.g. Hillbilly Elegy), in refuge streams, and even in business as usual.

For example, I came to the US because it was the "center of the empire" (there's not much room for theoretical astrophysics in the "provinces"). However, now my capital profile has changed: less brains, more money, more anchor and I'm sitting in one of the few states that's losing population internally.

However, this is to be compared to other dynamics. When people are pressured, they will (on average) turn more authoritarian looking for a leader to defend Us against Them---as we've just experienced in much of the western world. Being a newcomer and therefore one of Them in that case is not necessarily a better deal. Becoming one of Us instead of one of Them depends a lot on the prevailing culture. I hear that it takes at least a generation in New England. It's faster in big [cosmopolitan] cities. This means one has to move well in advance to stay ahead of the collapse.

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:07 am
by 7Wannabe5
True, but I would note that for reasons that may even be species level, it is probably easier if you are female and/or young. It has been my experience that pretty much all I need to do to be mostly accepted as a member of a new or culturally different community is help with the care of children and/or preparation of food and/or form romantic/sexual/domestic partnership (in non or minimally competitive manner) with one of the men. Of course, if my behavior was against conventional gender role --> more competitive and/or more loner and/or less attractive (see history of witch persecution) then not so much.

Also, language barriers can be pretty huge. Fleeing from Detroit to San Francisco when you are 22 is one thing. Fleeing from Iraq to Chicago when you are 52 is another thing.

OTOH, possessing the ability to be accepted in different cultures does not necessarily mean that you want to live within a different culture. For instance, not a big deal fleeing from Ann Arbor to Madison or Austin because basically same culture, whereas fleeing from Ann Arbor to relatively nearby as the crow flies small rural town or gritty urban post-collapse zone would likely require more adjustment. I reached a new personal Covid-stress low yesterday when in the midst of yet another fight, I informed The Cowboy that it is likely that one of the reasons we can't get along is that his family heritage in half Hillbilly, because only Hillbillies believe it is acceptable to yell in the kitchen before 10 AM in the morning.

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Posted: Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:48 am
by J_
jacob wrote:
Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:36 pm
I did!
In your last post you say: "This means one has to move well in advance to stay ahead of the collapse". Any plans?
The best I can is to think a lot about (personal) adaptation. Still a good guide is Lean Logic.