Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Your favorite books and links
7Wannabe5
Posts: 7108
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@Alphaville: Yeah, it was some kind of red-headed step-child compromise. It results in trying to teach genetic theory to 3 kids who might get it, while 20 play with their phones, and 7 wrap themselves up in plastic wrap and make squawking noises. I could go on and on...but somewhat off-topic.
chenda wrote:Yes, and there is a widespread tendency I find to argue that poverty is somehow solvable by 'increasing opportunity', and that if 'social barriers' are lifted then the poor will all become successful graduates and millionaires. I'm all for helping people with talent in disadvantaged circumstances succeed but half the population has a below average IQ.
True, and there are plenty of affluent kids who are also not the brightest bulbs. I am reading a book by an extreme liberal educational expert on the topic, and he argues that we should focus more on "outcomes" than "opportunity." For instance, if somebody truly only has capabilities that will allow her to maybe smile while restocking the coffee and muffin tray at the Ramada (or maybe be the next hostess of a reality show if she is Lori Loughlin's daughter rather than some low income kid), should she be penalized with a minimum wage that is not adequate for basic needs plus a few small luxuries, acquired in a manner that does not require the cleverness of your typical EREer?

OTOH, one problem I've seen with conservative take on such matters is that IQ/potential is often confused with behavior. There are plenty of very intelligent young hoodlums being lost in our educational system.

chenda
Posts: 1717
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:17 pm
Location: Nether Wallop

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by chenda »

Alphaville wrote:
Wed Dec 16, 2020 8:40 am
but what are we discussing here anyway? i mean concretely. who does what to whom? and what's the effect?
We may have gone off topic :lol: But trend I do see is certain countries and cities becoming ever more like 'gated communities' like Switzerland or Singapore, small, utopian(ish) societies supported by a large pool of foreign labourers, which are regularly culled as demand dictates, and with polluting industries and other problems exported elsewhere. I think some US states, with favourable geography could replicate such a system (Vermont ?) Which won't help most people but might help the locals.

@7wannabe5 - Right, and there is also the unfortunate human tendency to believe in the 'just world fallacy' that the rich and successful got there through talent and hard work, or whatever values are in vogue, rather than mostly winning the birth lottery. Karma and past lives is another manifestation of it which is widespread amongst New Agey types.

Edit: and needless to say of course but IQ says nothing about a person's ethics, Joseph Gobbels was highly intelligent for example.
Last edited by chenda on Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:12 am, edited 1 time in total.

7Wannabe5
Posts: 7108
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

IOW, my sure to be controversial note would be that not supporting road tax because you only ride a bike is functional, but not supporting school tax and/or volunteering to tutor because you don't have kids yourself or you send your kids to private school is going to eventually come back and bite you in the butt due to bottom-up collapse of your society.

Campitor
Posts: 1153
Joined: Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:49 am

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by Campitor »

chenda wrote:
Wed Dec 16, 2020 9:06 am
...there is also the unfortunate human tendency to believe in the 'just world fallacy' that the rich and successful got there through talent and hard work, or whatever values are in vogue, rather than mostly winning the birth lottery...
Agree but with a caveat. Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. Persons can have all the luck in the world but if they don't put in the effort to be skilled at something in demand, their lottery winnings will not be that big. People also play the financial version of the Darwin award.

In the world of Collapsology not everyone will live at the same level for the same reason that everyone isn't wealthy in a mega-rich-birth-lottery country. I will even state those who have the same mindset that creates millionaires/billionaires and almost millionaires/billionaires, will probably live better than the rest.

7Wannabe5
Posts: 7108
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@Campitor:

I think the people who are good at living well will be most likely to live well post-collapse. Illionaires aren’t necessarily very good at the art of living well. In fact, some of them kind of suck at it compared to your median muffin lady granted basic necessities plus a bit.

User avatar
Lemur
Posts: 991
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:40 am

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by Lemur »

Watched that talk by Dmitry Orlov. Was interesting. Found his blog. Relevant post. http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2020/11/a ... .html#more

Campitor
Posts: 1153
Joined: Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:49 am

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by Campitor »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:39 pm
@Campitor:

I think the people who are good at living well will be most likely to live well post-collapse. Illionaires aren’t necessarily very good at the art of living well. In fact, some of them kind of suck at it compared to your median muffin lady granted basic necessities plus a bit.
I agree with - there's no group that has ever existed that expresses all the same habits and ideas. There are many commonalities in-group but also great variability. However this particular group will probably pull ahead because they are not shallow thinkers and they are doers. A new 1%, 10%, 20% will emerge post Collapse - it's inevitable because there will always be individuals who can maximize results better than others.

Riggerjack
Posts: 3037
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:09 am

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by Riggerjack »

There are plenty of very intelligent young hoodlums being lost in our educational system.
By design. I have noticed that middle class is very comfortable with a meritocratic system, so long as the entry pool is properly edited.
IOW, my sure to be controversial note would be that not supporting road tax because you only ride a bike is functional, but not supporting school tax and/or volunteering to tutor because you don't have kids yourself or you send your kids to private school is going to eventually come back and bite you in the butt due to bottom-up collapse of your society.
Hmm. What about those who don't support school taxes, due to familiarity with schools and taxes, and their interplay?

For instance, at one point, I was paying the highest paid teachers in the state to go on strike for more pay, during the school year, while producing 25% grade level performance in standardized tests. (And because they taught most of the voters, they thought that was worth bragging about as an accomplishment worthy of the raise. Turns out this is a winning strategy.)

Paying more, for more failure, is hardly a recipe for success. But it does eventually get rid of the voters capable of doing basic math. In some ways, I imagine this could be called success...

7Wannabe5
Posts: 7108
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@Campitor:

I think it depends somewhat on the size of the social unit. Also, much more likely that the young will rise rather than the old illionaires rising again. Old growth forests are majestic but they aren’t as energetic as the fresh growth after a lightning strike.

That said, I agree that anyone best able to reconfigure and execute the simple step by step strategy offered by the Wall Street Players to any new environment will be most likely to accumulate resources. For instance, substitute “hand to hand combat” for “sports” and “form your own gang” for “start your own business” if you find yourself in Neo-Warrior culture rather than High Tech Capitalist Olig-Meritocracy. Etc. etc.

Meanwhile, the muffin lady and I will be baking some banana bread, building a snowman, visiting a friend, and identifying some birds.

7Wannabe5
Posts: 7108
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@Riggerjack:

I meant to convey that I would rather teach the bright young hoodlums than the dull reversion offspring of the oligarchs. Although, of course, dull and bad is the worst group. I like it when I can just send them off to help the school custodian with lifting boxes or something like that.

I agree that tax dollars aren’t always best directed. That’s why I noted “volunteer yourself” as option. Former bright young hoodlums are likely the best mentors for current crop of bright young hoodlums. There are 9 year old kids in detention centers just waiting for some dedicated Libertarian foster parent to come spring them.

Riggerjack
Posts: 3037
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:09 am

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by Riggerjack »

@7w5

I haven't volunteered at my local school. Though I am sure there are programs for such.

But perhaps you haven't considered the reaction a middle aged man with no kids is going to encounter in that environment.

When my classmates were going through the parenting phase, I did go to some organized sports events their kids were playing in.

Let's just call the reaction of soccer moms, "distrustful".

And I don't blame them. But thank you, no, I won't volunteer for that.

The system is working as it was meant to. Fallout is handled by other systems (prison/low status employment), again as it is meant to.

I'm poorly suited to beating my head against walls with other bloody forehead marks. Or rather, I am too well suited to it, but trying to avoid the habit. There seems to be quite a crowd at this wall, already.

You like to play with systems. You know this one. You know the inputs and outputs. Do you really think volunteer labor is going to fix the outputs?

You know many things that are systemically wrong with American education. Those aren't improved by adding more resources, or scaling up the system.

See secondary education for that result.

ertyu
Posts: 1694
Joined: Sun Nov 13, 2016 2:31 am

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by ertyu »

They are so improved by adding more resources. You pay teachers, you resource schools, you make sure kids have access to adequate food at school, you provide after-school activities, you provide support for the learning-disabled and counseling for those that are having trouble at home, and even in the lowest income disticts you'll have kids who see a point in trying.

Riggerjack
Posts: 3037
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:09 am

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by Riggerjack »

Ertyu

What part of that list isn't currently in practice?

"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is."

In practice, we can see the results of the theory. But we can keep tweaking the theory to blind ourselves to the effect of the theory, if we choose.

Either way, we get the same result, so I am not recommending one way over the other. Do what works for you.

7Wannabe5
Posts: 7108
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

Riggerjack wrote:You like to play with systems. You know this one. You know the inputs and outputs. Do you really think volunteer labor is going to fix the outputs?
I absolutely believe that hours of 1 on 1 or very small group interaction with functional adult is huge factor in outcome. Whether this happens within the setting of the school system is irrelevant. To give just one small example of what I mean, when I was a student at a very highly rated university, I was at a party where the subject of the Beginning Readers Series which featured books by Dr. Seuss and other similar authors came up. This was a series of books that was purchased by parents as opposed to schools during my childhood. Almost every highly rated university student at that party had parents who purchased that series of books and read with them. OTOH, the 4th graders I tutored at a school located in terrible neighborhood in Detroit often told me they were better readers than their parents, even though they were reading at level below 2nd grade.

Also, it's not like I am suggesting that you volunteer for a kindergarten group full of offspring of soccer moms. If I was in charge of the volunteer corps, I would place you with the 7th grade thru returning-young-adult boys in very low income setting. Your rough assignment, (I believe in strong delegation) would be something like "Improve their math skills through integration with vocational education and sports activities." Highly unlikely that you would ever interact with their parents, even if you tried. I would suggest that you prepare for this assignment by taking notes while watching "Blackboard Jungle" and "The Bad News Bears."

Riggerjack
Posts: 3037
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:09 am

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by Riggerjack »

@7w5

I can agree with your last post (even with the assignment, though I am not accepting new assignments, currently :lol: ).

But what does that have to do with:
not supporting school tax and/or volunteering to tutor because you don't have kids yourself or you send your kids to private school is going to eventually come back and bite you in the butt due to bottom-up collapse of your society.
Bottom up collapse is already here. It just doesn't matter to anyone beyond the border of the collapse.
.....
I was listening to "the portal" episode 1, Peter Theil and Eric Weinstein talking about the difference between our narratives and the evidence that points the other way.

And I thought, "Wow, 2 very smart, connected, and independent people just summed up Billy Joel's Allentown in only a few hours."

So I would say that collapse is getting more evenly distributed, to the point that it is observable from the top tiers, if one is looking.

School taxes ain't gonna fix that.

chenda
Posts: 1717
Joined: Wed Jun 29, 2011 1:17 pm
Location: Nether Wallop

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by chenda »

Riggerjack wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:10 am
School taxes ain't gonna fix that.
So what does Riggerjack think will fix it ? Or are we stuck on the glideslope of irreversible doom...

Riggerjack
Posts: 3037
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 3:09 am

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by Riggerjack »

@ chenda

Nothing in our current toolbox is useful, here.

That's a hard pill to swallow, I know.

But we have always had inequality of outcomes. We have always had inequality of opportunity. And we have no tools for eliminating either.

We can shuffle the haves among the have-nots, and vice versa. We can pretend that those who end up with the short end of the stick deserve it.

What we can't do is stop having have-nots, or short sticks. Our systems absolutely produce these products the same way industries produce pollution.

I find myself in a similar mindframe as Kingsnorth. What he has to say about environmentalism, I feel about capitalism.
Or are we stuck on the glideslope of irreversible doom...
Kingsnorth talks about the reactions of environmentalists to his message. They say he is preaching defeatism, and spreading depression.

But he doesn't feel defeated or depressed. He accepts that we are changing the environment in ways that few of us like, and we aren't going to stop. Accept being the critical concept here.

Accepting has been freeing.

......

As to whether this is a glideslope to doom, it seems to be. Continuing on this path will continue to get the same result.

But I have some ideas about other options. Other ways of doing things that may produce different results. That's my retirement project.

But odds are very good that I am simply wrong, and my retirement projects go nowhere. It still seems like a good use of my time, and the way I can best leverage my advantages.

And that is freeing, too.


.....
ETA: Re-reading that, I should point out that the difference between Kingsnorth's position and mine, is that I have hope for innovative changes rewriting the future, and he finds hope in the return to a familiar path.

Either option is still available after one accepts the limits of our current systems. One merely looks further afield...
Last edited by Riggerjack on Fri Dec 18, 2020 11:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Alphaville
Posts: 3163
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:50 am
Location: Quarantined

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by Alphaville »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Thu Dec 17, 2020 4:04 pm
Meanwhile, the muffin lady and I will be baking some banana bread,
heyy! hook a brother up. banana + walnut!

ducknald_don
Posts: 56
Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:31 pm
Location: Oxford, UK

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by ducknald_don »

Riggerjack wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:58 am
We have always had inequality of opportunity. And we have no tools for eliminating either.
This just isn't true. There are plenty of countries with better equality both of opportunity and outcomes.

Not only are there plenty of counter examples to your argument but even within the US the figures have got worse over time.

User avatar
Alphaville
Posts: 3163
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:50 am
Location: Quarantined

Re: Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

Post by Alphaville »

Riggerjack wrote:
Fri Dec 18, 2020 9:10 am
I was listening to [..] Peter Theil and Eric Weinstein talking
ah!

Post Reply