Collapsology- What's Your Intuition?

[Alphaville]

small dog breed

spot-on. have seen this many times

[Lemur]

@Hristo

FWIW I think you're pretty informed on this topic but I too am not a true authority, or an environmental scientist...just a guy that has read about this topic a lot and tries to read from credible authorities.

And you may be right that this won't make the planet completely uninhabitable; afterall this part of the future is uncertain. But I think we both know for sure that 7 billion + and growing is simply not sustainable. Perhaps post-collapse a return to small-scale, regenerative, localized food production and an overall return to pre-industrial revolution living will be sustainable for the humans that will rebuild and continue to live into the next stage. Maybe today's controversial policies such as population control would not even be debatable and this rebuilt world...a whole new way of living, doing business / building an economy.

I do take the more pessimistic opinion that this ecological disaster is going to be our undoing - the damage has already been done and the feedback loops have already kicked off. Needless to say, future humans will have a tough time surviving.

[Ego]

Covid has given us a mini collapse and has shown us the degree to which the damage of collapse is (always?) disproportionate.

Who has born the brunt of this mini collapse and what characteristics made them vulnerable?

Who was anti-fragile, benefited from the shocks; thrived and grew when exposed to the volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors? Which characteristics made them anti-fragile?

How much was luck? How much was planning? How much was flexibility and adaptability?

[white belt]

I realize I didn’t really provide a detailed prediction of what I think will happen. I will focus only on the domestic USA because that is what I am most familiar with. I’m only going to predict the next 10 years, but here is what I think:

Economy
To me, the biggest problem over the next 10 years is the US economic situation. Basically we have record high levels of debt in all areas of society (personal, business, corporate, gov’t) and extremely high wealth inequality that continues to accelerate as we stratify even more into a world of haves and have nots. Not only that, but our experiment with moving to a fiat currency since the 1970s appears to have been a failure and we are now just coming to terms with that fact that we have had very little real economic growth as real wages have remained stagnant for a generation. We have had astronomical growth of financial assets though, with stocks, bonds, and real estate at all time highs (which exacerbates inequality because the rich own assets). Globalization has been a huge boon for the upper class in the US and the lower class in developing countries, but has cost the middle and lower classes in the US their livelihood. Here are my predictions:

-There will be a debt jubilee in some form (it has to happen, there is more debt than can ever be paid off). The form could be debt forgiveness, or some central bank manipulation to move all debts to their balance sheet, or even MMT). The rich will take a haircut, whether that’s willingly or at the guillotine.

-MMT is coming regardless of how you feel about it. It appeals too much to politicians and the common people. Likely long term effects will be inflation and further fiat debasement.

-The US dollar will lose reserve currency status. It’s replacement will be a digital currency, gold backed currency, or some kind of commodity currency basket that other nations come up with. This will be extremely disruptive to our entire economy and will force the US to live within its means. The masses will not be happy in the short term, but in the long term factories and production will return domestically because the US will no longer be able to run trade deficits. It’s likely that the pollution and negative environmental effects that we outsourced to the developing world will return.

-the world will be fragmented and deglobalized. This is already happening and will move into parallel supply chains and trade regions such as the US/North American sphere, the Euro sphere, and the China/Asia/Africa sphere. This will be inflationary as it will raise production costs and reduce innovation and efficiency.

-related to the debt jubilee and MMT, the US has major demographic problems. We have run the country for the older generation because they traditionally vote, and now the older generation possesses the wealth and outsized pension/SS entitlements. The transfer of wealth from old to young is going happen, whether that’s through taxation or inflation. The young people will get violent until politicians capitulate, which we already started to see during COVID.


My understanding is a lot of this is covered in Neil Howe’s Fourth Turning, which I’m just about to read in its entirety. In the next 10 years we will question and restructure many of our institutions. I’m unsure if our political system in its current form can serve as an effective pressure release valve. Our government is an oligarchy run by the ultra wealthy and the masses are starting to wake up to it.

I’m not going to address climate change, but of course climate change is inextricably linked with economic issues. However, I believe in the next 10 years climate change will take a backseat in the public consciousness to the above listed economic issues.

[white belt]

It's not the end of the world, nor the Apocalypse. Nor is it a simple crisis from which we can emerge unscathed or a one-off disaster that we can forget after a few months, like as tsunami or a terrorist attack. A collapse is 'the process at the end of which basic needs (water, food, housing, clothing, energy, etc.) can no longer be provided (at a reasonable cost) to a majority of the population by services under legal supervision'.

I'd argue that US society is already unable to provide needs at the higher level of Maslow's hierarchy to the bottom 51% of the population. Many people are unable to find self-actualization and esteem needs since they don't have jobs, or the jobs they do have are far below their education/aspiration level. If you consider healthcare a basic need then many people cannot afford that either. I think we might see it move down the hierarchy into shelter in January when the mortgage and rent forbearances come due and we see mass evictions of tenants and/or foreclosures by Mom and Pop landlords who won't be able to pay their mortgages. I guess we could argue that basic needs could be provided to the large majority of the population by redistributing wealth in some way, however with the current systems that appears unpossible.

[Alphaville]

Many people are unable to find self-actualization and esteem needs since they don't have jobs, or the jobs they do have are far below their education/aspiration level.

was it the reagan era when it became socially acceptable to make fun of fast food workers, janitors, laborers, etc?

seems to me that in the aftermath of the new deal any kind of work had an implicit dignity to it.

after that paradigm was shredded by reaganomics, anyone who wasn't the ceo of the universe automatically got branded a "loser" and had to strive for the title or perish.

no?

[white belt]

Off the top of my head, factors I can think of are globalization, automation, and the push for everyone to get a college education. Additionally we’ve seen the cost of buying a home skyrocket with wages stagnant, and owning a home is still seen as quintessential to the American dream for the masses.

[Alphaville]

Off the top of my head, factors I can think of are globalization, automation, and the push for everyone to get a college education. Additionally we’ve seen the cost of buying a home skyrocket with wages stagnant, and owning a home is still seen as quintessential to the American dream for the masses.

but it was the wealth-worshipping culture of reaganomics when that flipped the whole aspirational side of it. it was no longer enough to be a mail carrier or a school teacher.

i used to know a guy in the teamsters union who went to the korean war. bought his house over 30 years as a working stiff. his late-boomer kids all went on to become college-graduate yuppies. and wow, he hated reagan with a passion.

https://www.salon.com/2014/04/19/reagan ... s_partner/

eg this song+ music video was meant as a satire:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PBAl9cchQac

but of course many people read it straight and so it became the music of wrestlemania.

[IlliniDave]

was it the reagan era when it became socially acceptable to make fun of fast food workers, janitors, laborers, etc?

...

no?

Nope, I clearly remember white-collar-looking-down-on-blue-collar dynamic in the 1970s. The hazards of attending private school that cut completely across the economic spectrum, and being firmly in the lower third. The "You'll wind up flipping burgers" dig was alive and well in the 70s, even among grade school kids. In HS it was, "You want fries with that?" Ditch-digging was another trope. Some of my grandparents where called "clod-hoppers" when their families had to move to the city from the farms.

Guess it depends on what you mean by socially acceptable, too. We could say that sort of stuff and not get expelled from school. Never considered "polite". But 24/7 politeness was not required or expected, though sometimes desired.

Wealth/power aspirations go way back. Social stratification goes hand-in-hand with them.

[jacob]

I saw a meme circulating and getting great emotional affirmation support to the effect that two generations ago someone with a high school education could buy a house, a car, and support a household of 5.

So I looked up the numbers...

It turns out that such a person would have made about $20000/year in real dollars or about the same as someone with a HS degree does today. Indeed, one can still buy a house, a car, and support a household on 5 for $20k/year today. What one can not afford in such an income are continual smartphone upgrades, second car, one bedroom/person, credit card debt, eating out or going for coffee ice cream on a regular basis, the latest fashions, streaming subscriptions, flying to visit family, and many other things that people now consider needs. But those did not exist in 1950.

The meme ended with something to the effect that "this [expectation] was stolen from them".

But it's still there. It's just that the median American can now afford a great deal more in terms of tech gadgets and luxury conveniences. Expectations have shifted and so the $20k/year demographic has experienced a loss of relative status as they now find themselves near the bottom of the pile in the US and only slightly above the middle on a global scale.

Some in the $40-80k/year crowd are likely fearful that the same destiny awaits them too as the global meritocracy (12 years of education is now typical in a large part of the world) relentlessly carries on---now with AI too. Hence the antagonistic attitude towards the nebulous "global elite".

This status-loss resentment seems to have arranged itself along tribal lines. We're likely to see more of it because humans gotta human.

Note that there are two factors here: 1) is the growing inequality that @whitebelt pointed out above. 2) is the relative rate of change of status in which those who stand to gain more status (highly educated/connected, meritocratic winners, minorities) are naturally lined up against those who stand to lose status (those directly or indirectly threatened by global competition, previously privileged majorities).

Thus, it's not just where people are culturally and socioeconomically but also where they're trending that sets up the conflict.

[Jean]

@jacob
Sidely related
[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rebel_Sell[\url]
In short the book's thesis is that most consumption is for status, and that counter culture is just an other form of status race.
It's an enjoyable and valuable read.

It's not the whole picture, but I'll limit myself to what is allowed here.

[Alphaville]

Nope, I clearly remember white-collar-looking-down-on-blue-collar dynamic in the 1970s. […]
Guess it depends on what you mean by socially acceptable, too. […]
Wealth/power aspirations go way back. Social stratification goes hand-in-hand with them.

yes of course there are always class distinctions, and i didn't mean that those didn't exist. but looking at the cultural artifacts looks like they got exacerbated the same way they did in the gilded age for example.

gilded age inequalities were reduced with the rise of labor unions and populism, and later the new deal solidified proletarian gains.

after the new deal was undone inequality rose again and with it the worshipping of wealth as illustrated by 1980s culture and media.

e.g. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lifesty ... and_Famous

[eta compare to https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Honeymooners ]

by socially acceptable i mean those inequalities went from being considered undesirable to being considered desirable, and if you're in the bottom third it's no longer explained as due to oppression by the rich but it's your own damn fault again. the social discourse moved to a new cycle.

so did ceo pay.

[Alphaville]

IWhat one can not afford in such an income are continual smartphone upgrades, second car, one bedroom/person, credit card debt, eating out or going for coffee ice cream on a regular basis, the latest fashions, streaming subscriptions, flying to visit family, and many other things that people now consider needs. But those did not exist in 1950.

reaganomics did give us cheaper and more accessible consumer goods at the expense of social safety networks and labor standards. the consumer became king and the worker his little serf. this is the paradigm we live by today and we seem unable to reconcile that consumers and workers are both sides of the same coin. in other words, we oppress ourselves, or: our wants oppress our needs. and it's now culturally acceptable to do that, whereas in another era it was seen as foolish.

[tonyedgecombe]

In short the book's thesis is that most consumption is for status

I was watching a talk by Tyler Cowen today and he said that isn't the case, that the general opinion among economists is that most consumption isn't for status.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Pk654J8-5c

[Alphaville]

I was watching a talk by Tyler Cowen today and he said that isn't the case, that the general opinion among economists is that most consumption isn't for status.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Pk654J8-5c

i skimmed through the rebell sell article and don't have the time to read and watch all the materials this morning (but will try later).

in the meantime though i can tell you from experience (and also former reader of adbusters, and their culture jamming work) that there is indeed a hipster hierarchy of purchases outside of mainstream values which doesn't subvert the social order but only renovates/perpetuates it. this is plain to see.

https://subscribe.adbusters.org/products/blackspot

but "bobos in paradise" already covered that, in a way?

this is not to contradict you or jean. i mean to say that the phenomenon exists; but i'm ignorant about the macro extrapolations, hope to catch up later.

[ertyu]

out of curiosity, is anyone's collapse plan committing suicide? With asking a question like this, I guess I have to say that I am not suicidal. I am a simply a coward who would like to avoid intense suffering. I would also, however, be too afraid to kill myself. So I will likely not commit suicide and would instead hope to die some other way. But I am curious if anyone here has a, "if things get This Bad, I'm out" plan. If yes, how bad is "this bad"?

[chenda]

out of curiosity, is anyone's collapse plan committing suicide?

No I would be too afraid of the possibility of afterlife consequences, such as hell or reincarnation as a lower life form. Unless quality of life got so low it could be justified as voluntary self euthanasia.

[unemployable]

out of curiosity, is anyone's collapse plan committing suicide?

Possibly, if I run out of money

[Alphaville]

sure, depending on particular scenarios such as being sold into slavery or being subjected to elder abuse while some corporation eats my savings. i refuse to be tortured in the name of "saving my life" (for what?)

seneca has a good letter about suicide which does not appear in some editions, lol.


eta here you go: https://en.m.wikisource.org/wiki/Moral_ ... /Letter_77

[Jean]

If I was an hectomilionaire, my plan would be to go to space, so that's kindof a suicide.