Epsilon Theory

Your favorite books and links
Post Reply
black_son_of_gray
Posts: 343
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:39 pm

Epsilon Theory

Post by black_son_of_gray » Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:40 pm

I'm surprised that there is essentially no mention of Epsilon Theory here.

This will get you started: https://www.epsilontheory.com/epsilon-theory-manifesto/
Our times require an investment and risk management perspective that is fluent in econometrics but is equally grounded in game theory, history, and behavioral analysis. Epsilon Theory is my attempt to lay the foundation for such a perspective. -Ben Hunt

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 876
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Epsilon Theory

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Sun Feb 17, 2019 5:50 pm

Your shares are always excellent, thanks BSOG.

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 876
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Epsilon Theory

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:40 pm

In Praise Of Work

“The form work takes for you will differ based on the talents you have. Whatever it is, there is no substitute for it. If you reduce your work-less job from 70 hours to 55, you will still be unhappy. If you are able to find relationships and connections and even follow your passions at your job, if it is not work, you will still be unhappy. If you are retired early, sedentary and wealthy enough to do nothing for as long as you want, you will still be unhappy. Good people are wired to be productive, to contribute and to give more than they got. Unless you are a sociopath, you cannot trick your brain around this.”
7Wannabe5 wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 10:40 am
I am somewhat burnt out on teaching the cute little monsters, and re-booting my old business, although rewarding, is not as exciting as starting a new business, but I find myself loathe to give up either of these activities completely towards activities more lucrative. I just don't care (give a lukewarm fuck) about selling people pills to reduce their appetite enough that they will never even want to cook in the new kitchen that I helped them pay for with mortgage refinance. Dig the hole. Fill it in. Dig the hole. Fill it in. That's what it seems like to me.
.....

Train Your Voice and Use It: It’s one of the most disappointing outcomes in life – to know that you’re a creative person, to have something Important that’s going to burn you up inside if you don’t share it with the world … but to lack the words or the music or the art to do so. In my experience, the unhappiest people in the world are mute creatives. To paraphrase Langston Hughes, sometimes they shrivel. Sometimes they fester. And sometimes they explode. Every creative person should start a blog to express and develop their art. Do not distribute it. Do not publicize it. Do not play the ego-driven Game of You. Erase it all every six months if that’s what you need to do, because odds are you have nothing interesting to say! But start training your voice NOW, because one day you will.”
Mister Imperceptible wrote:
Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:48 am
Another question is whether 7w5 is seriously capable of being a mortgage banker. I can say as an open creative type that fitting into the corporate box for 50-60 hours a week is harmful to my health, and I am struggling for healthy outlets, much to the chagrin of Dr. Fisker, whose forum walls I decorate with my insanity.
Related: The Rise of Bullshit Jobs

7Wannabe5
Posts: 4950
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 9:03 am

Re: Epsilon Theory

Post by 7Wannabe5 » Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:33 am

Well, I would like to note that anything I have typed lately should be taken with a huge grain of salt, because I am still writhing about in a state such as Icarus found himself post-fable after series of crash and burns followed by extended wallow in self-pity.

That said, I think that a good deal of the work-less work discussed in the article actually falls under the category of organizational work, and the particular sort of organizational work that only pertains to a situation that is highly complicated and highly leveraged. It it were truly the case that such a great quantity of paid employment did not result in some ultimate change at the level of pure resource extraction (lithium)or production (corn), then near term collapse would be inevitable. I think it's usually more the case that the work is so removed from the obvious, and also so distributed in contribution to application of leverage, that it is very difficult to attach human emotions to the accomplishment.

For example, it is like being responsible through your narrow contribution to a marketing effort for changing the average number of forks owned by the average American by .00001 percent vs. forging a sword. Much more ore actually is mined due to the former, but the sense of it is greatly reduced.

Mister Imperceptible
Posts: 876
Joined: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Epsilon Theory

Post by Mister Imperceptible » Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:13 pm

I prefer the unadulterated writhings to the artificial santitized or politically correct.

And I was not being critical, I just wanted you to read the article. :D

User avatar
Lillailler
Posts: 65
Joined: Mon Aug 07, 2017 7:09 am

Re: Epsilon Theory

Post by Lillailler » Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:07 pm

Thanks for posting this. Very interesting reading. I sometimes think that economics today - or at least run of the mill financial analysis - loses sight of the fact that its subject matter, unlike the elementary particles of physics, have minds of their own, and are quite capable of deviating from the trajectories calculated for them. This may lead to intense focus on the minutiae of the predictables, concurrent with neglect of the potentially much larger effects of the unpredictables.

Post Reply