Early Retirement Extreme Forums

@vexed87 - Tveberg's site is fantastic, but I think that article misses what is an option and not a requirement and that is that future grid service(*) need not remain on-demand 24/7 like it is now. Windmills (the grain milling kind) used to run only but constantly when the wind was blowing but otherwise idle while the miller was doing other things. Changing how we structure our work (away from 9-5) could do a lot to reduce the need for either storage or overcapacity of the intermittent supplies.

(*) Decentralized, it might need even need to remain a grid-service.

jacob wrote: ↑

Thu Jul 25, 2019 8:32 am

Probably the PNW, which has its own problems, but there is unfortunately no ideal geography in the US.

Where would be an ideal geography outside of the US?

Canada, Scandinavia, Russia, and Scotland in the north.
New Zealand and Chile in the south.

@jacob - Are you entitled to settle in the Faroe Islands or Greenland ?

Yes, but I'm not sure it's wise to move to remote places that are too small to set up as an autarky especially wrt fuel for food and heating. I don't want to rely on continual shipments of canned food from the mainland. If the ships stop coming ...

I still think Northern Michigan could work and land is way cheaper than PNW.

Scotland, how sweet. I might get British passport after all to have this avenue open forever in case I move/go for extended travel.

@bankai - property is still very cheap in the far north of Scotland; you can pick up a large rural house with land for £50 000.

Even New Zealand might struggle due to its extreme isolation. I keep looking at this and still think Canada ticks more boxes than anywhere else.

@bigato. Que the fence jokes Though Canada is huge, Scotland is tiny with, relatively speaking, vastly more people squeezed in down south.

1) I thought the best choice in the U.S. was the northern Midwest, particularly around the Great Lakes. Is this incorrect?

2) I thought the general consensus on this forum was that, for citizens of the rich world, the real collapse was ~40-50 years out, essentially when most of us are dead or very old was likely to be somewhat more gradual than an actual collapse. Is this incorrect?

3) Is anyone actually changing their long-term strategy based on collapse projections? As several have noted, there's not much point investing in current financial markets if large scale financial collapse is imminent. Particularly if we expect it in more like 10-15 years and not 40-50.

3) I am 24, so I have been operating under the assumption that collapse will happen in my life span. As a consequence I am far less concerned with the financial aspects of ERE than with the generalist/DIY/skills angle.

Realistically, it's impossible to predict with much detail when the collapse will happen. In reality, it's going to manifest in a bunch of local crisis that make the overall system weaker and weaker. Even if Western society doesn't full out collapse in 40-50 years, there's still going to be profound changes. But those changes may or may not happen to you depending on your circumstances. As the saying goes, the collapse is already here; it's just unevenly distributed.

As for investing, keep in mind there are more options than just the financial markets. This is why understanding business and economics is critical. It's possible to still make money in a shrinking economy if you place your bets right. However, it IS an argument against index investing. It's hard to want to be all in the S&P 500 in today's climate.

jacob wrote: ↑

Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:51 am

Changing how we structure our work (away from 9-5) could do a lot to reduce the need for either storage or overcapacity of the intermittent supplies.

Completely agree, it's just about the only way we could 'extend the glide' during the energy descent. I do wonder whether the approach is compatible with current monetary/resource distribution systems. Reliance on always on electricity is a game changer for majority of what constitutes modern standards of living, not that it would be the end of the world if we changed a few (ok, a lot!) wasteful habits.

@vexed87 - I think this would be easier than it immediately seems at the ground level of "main street". For example, our utility texts us when electricity is particularly cheap (when they're over capacity) in the hope that we'll run our laundry to take some of their load off. Currently, it seems that techmologists hope to fix this with "smart" appliances w/o having to require humans to become cognizant of the usage patterns ... However, I don't think it's too big of a step to change those habits as long as there's proper/immediate feedback on the electricity price.

Of course, the price signal has to be made stronger. Electricity is still ridiculously cheap compared to what it will be. It's like everybody is counting on fusion or dilithium crystals to take over within the next twenty years.

In terms of society at a higher level---the 9/5 stuff---the issue is who takes the risk. Currently, society is structured more in terms of liabilities (bonds and promises) than in terms of risk (equity and rewards). This balance is actually very easy to change technically. All it requires is a major financial crises.
(Also note that usury used to be illegal in the Christian world and still is in the Muslim world .. for that historic reason.)

Couldn't Uranium fill the void of petroleum energy needs for atleast 40 years at current consumption levels?
https://www.uselessgroup.org/sankey-dia ... nergy-flow

Not enough nuclear reactors to burn it and overwhelmingly impossible to get them through the regulatory process (nobody wants them or their waste in their backyard) and build them fast enough. There are some theoretical designs, but nobody wants to build them. Companies get started ... and then go out of business after a few years. Best lesson for this is to look at some old promises from 2015, 2010, 2005, etc. and see how far they've come since then.

I told someone recently that I use a clothesline instead of a dryer. After convincing her that I do, in fact, own a working dryer but choose not to use it, she asked "How do you dry clothes on a rainy day?" When I said that I just didn't do laundry on rainy days, she was completely flummoxed.

There's a weird immediacy built into the culture now. We've lost the ecological/economical 'rhythms' that made sense in a world with limits. When forced to face impending energy issues, people will struggle with the time constraints as much as any overall limits on power usage.

Our PM has declared there is a "climate emergency"

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2019/06/21/T ... nadequate/

But when it comes to one of Taleb's points of wisdom, "don't look at what people say, look at what people do." How many Scientists from the middle lattitudes are moving North to escape this "emergency?" I'll bet a few haven't done so yet. But if we are in an emergency, it kind of means the time to act was yesterday.

Also, for anyone on this forum, what would it take for you in terms of climate to make the move north (or south)? Is it already time or is there a reason to justify some more can kicking?

@s@d - Actually, it's not all that uncommon among those who know what they're talking about. Look at the links in the Deep Adaption thread for examples of scientists quitting and moving. The other issue is timing. If you're a 60 year old climate scientist, San Diego is probably fine. Whereas if you're 30 and looking to start a family and possible put down roots somewhere, it's a whole other matter. Don't confuse price and value. The value is in the north. But the price might justify other choices depending on one's personal discount rate. That discount rate is still very much determined by what's practical. If you know that the SW US is sunk by a 13th century style megadrought by the end of the century, but you have a job offer in Phoenix for the next 3 years, what would you do?

The idea of "surfing" the predicament is applicable. It would make a good book title.

@jp
That’s something we noticed when we were in the USA.
in Italy people usually pay attention to that kind of stuff.
It is customary for people to do the laundry and hang it outside based on weather
Being poorer helps in resource optimization

@s@d: DW and I actually had a discussion a couple weeks ago about moving to the nordics in the next three to five years.