Search found 160 matches

by prudentelo
Sun Oct 30, 2022 10:17 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: 4% rule in countries with a welfare state
Replies: 24
Views: 2007

Re: 4% rule in countries with a welfare state

USA is more of welfare state that people think. Most useful "ERE welfare" is SS which is good benefit by world standards. Anyway "Welfare state" is not usually "free money". There are attached string like must first spend down NW, or have made employment contributions f...
by prudentelo
Sun Oct 30, 2022 4:34 am
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: Fasting Can Regenerate Your Immune System
Replies: 220
Views: 62677

Re: Fasting Can Regenerate Your Immune System

theanimal wrote:
Sat Oct 29, 2022 12:35 pm
I have had incredible positive effects following the end of each fast.
Can you say more?

They last full quarter? Less/more?
by prudentelo
Sat Oct 29, 2022 6:53 am
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: Fasting Can Regenerate Your Immune System
Replies: 220
Views: 62677

Re: Fasting Can Regenerate Your Immune System

I’m in the fourth day. Cancelled lunch. This is more important. Funny taste in mouth. Dry mouth. I’m a little stronger but going up the stairs requires effort unlike in my pre fast days. Thumb joints feel great. Hearing and vision seem more acute but it feels similar to THC intoxication if I can re...
by prudentelo
Sat Oct 29, 2022 5:25 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Guest post: How I invest
Replies: 30
Views: 3036

Re: Guest post: How I invest

This is rare deep post that combines the philosophy with the pragmatics. Thank you.
by prudentelo
Sat Oct 15, 2022 3:08 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Capital Preservation
Replies: 87
Views: 7579

Re: Capital Preservation

" But by all means, invest what isn't currently needed. But don't give investment more headspace than it deserves. Keep your focus on achieving whatever you want, not preventing that which you don't." Agree Also exactly why I recommend "standard" "FIRE" plan of stock/bo...
by prudentelo
Sun Oct 09, 2022 12:17 pm
Forum: Skills & Tools Questions
Topic: Bike Lock?
Replies: 26
Views: 1643

Re: Bike Lock?

You cannot stop someone stealing your bike only make other guy bike easier to steal Does not take much. Survived five years student town putting chain lock through frame and wheel. But not high crime area other than bike theft. If you live in high crime area with very active bike thiefs, cheapest wa...
by prudentelo
Sat Oct 08, 2022 6:21 am
Forum: Friends & Family Questions
Topic: Would you give your kids money for college or life?
Replies: 46
Views: 10571

Re: Would you give your kids money for college or life?

People who benefit most from the networking, usually have the least need to pay. In many respects college is "lifestyle consumption good" or "selling the dream." Like other investments, 'FOMO' can dominate human reason Also like other [non-fraud] investments, return usually highe...
by prudentelo
Sat Oct 08, 2022 3:43 am
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: Mental health consequences of ERE
Replies: 34
Views: 2930

Re: Mental health consequences of ERE

E-RE idea had caused me to stick with bad job ~2 years longer than otherwise, because income too high for me to reproduce elsewhere. Very high saving rate. Unsure if this was worth it. Probably was. On other hand, have never had to "worry" about money. Easy to forget that this is the numbe...
by prudentelo
Fri Sep 30, 2022 4:05 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 345
Views: 33554

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

The reason why a 50-year time period fails exponentially more than a 30-year time period is the probability of having a run of negative returns is exponentially higher (not linear) in a 50-year time period than a 30-year time period. This is why a 1% WR for 50 years fails about as many times as a 4...
by prudentelo
Fri Sep 16, 2022 6:12 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 345
Views: 33554

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

Organizing life to optimize quality when (if) 80 is "planning to fail"
by prudentelo
Thu Sep 15, 2022 4:07 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 345
Views: 33554

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

Biggest use for WR is to decide if you're on the zero/infinity side of the line. For example 5% WR is exactly what I do NOT want. It is only just on side of zero line. So for saving little extra work, good chance I go to zero even without some unaccountable disaster. But 10% might be OK because I mi...
by prudentelo
Wed Sep 14, 2022 6:40 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 345
Views: 33554

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

I dont think the WR is irrelevant at all but central. It's an historical fact (not speculations) what worked before. In finance, typical attractors for portfolio value are zero and infinity. WR historical fact gives an idea where you lie, whether your finances are going to infinity or zero. Historic...
by prudentelo
Tue Sep 13, 2022 2:57 pm
Forum: ERE Book/Blog/Forum
Topic: A new article about the ERE book
Replies: 4
Views: 64705

Re: A new article about the ERE book

Professor of Finance at UCSF is probably $200k job with ~10 hour of real work requirement per week. Once can get such job by writing book review of book someone else who does not work in your field of research professionally wrote and misunderstanding vital parts of it. This brings wisdom of not wor...
by prudentelo
Tue Sep 13, 2022 2:47 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 345
Views: 33554

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

If it's right that you need 1% WR to be S (or even low!) then early retirement on the financial wealth is always imprudent, also plan does not work. 80% savings rate for 1% WR need 25 years of work. Long time to work to live on only 1/5 of produce for HOPE! that you may be able to spend perhaps fift...
by prudentelo
Sat Sep 10, 2022 7:20 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 345
Views: 33554

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

it -is- exceptional. the us stock market is the stock market of a country that rose from nothing - fields and agriculture - to the economic superpower of our day. So not only does the us stock market capture the full industrialization of the country, it captures the full industrialization of the co...
by prudentelo
Sat Sep 10, 2022 7:01 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 345
Views: 33554

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

It's possible that 1871-2019 US stock market has been an exceptional period in comparison to rest of human history. What has worked out longer is having atleast 1 child who can take care of an ailing you in old age. Americans like to believe their exceptionalism, and all their "Year Zero"...
by prudentelo
Fri Sep 09, 2022 6:47 am
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: Americans - Have you had a hospital stay or expensive treatment with health insurance?
Replies: 15
Views: 1799

Re: Americans - Have you had a hospital stay or expensive treatment with health insurance?

In-network is far less important than believed. First you do not know what the network is like until too late. Second, ""in network"" can suddenly and retroactively become ""out of network"" with no recourse to ordinary protections against speculative invoicing.
by prudentelo
Fri Sep 09, 2022 6:27 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 345
Views: 33554

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

I was pointing out that the economic shock from leaving ZIRP will make income from labor less available precisely when assets are cheaper. I think working now and having a numéraire repository of value as a tactical reserve is wise. The text I quoted included that advice. What I questioned was the ...
by prudentelo
Thu Sep 08, 2022 7:59 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 345
Views: 33554

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

Im not suggesting one leave top 1% paying job with 98% saving rate because assets too costly. Sure just get your 1% SWR.

But for rest of us ...
by prudentelo
Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:26 am
Forum: Emergent Renaissance Ecology
Topic: Democracy - Leonard Cohen: An Ode to Emergence?
Replies: 15
Views: 1152

Re: Democracy - Leonard Cohen: An Ode to Emergence?

Cohen is modern genius, like Socrates with a guitar.