Search found 335 matches

by WFJ
Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:46 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Blackrock calling for the end of the Great Moderation Era
Replies: 16
Views: 944

Re: Blackrock calling for the end of the Great Moderation Era

Summary, Lower rates = higher asset prices Higher rates = lower asset prices What nobody knows is the timing/lags that reveal this relationship. We are in the "Higher rates = lower asset prices" regime now, after being in the "Lower rates = higher asset prices" regime for roughly...
by WFJ
Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:39 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 285
Views: 27492

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

I can only respond to questions about hypothesis testing, data and analysis. Statistical methods are more of an art than a science and debate is always preferred in all domains of science compared to consensus, opinions and expert decrees. My statical analysis tools do not predict the future in any ...
by WFJ
Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:33 pm
Forum: Miscellaneous
Topic: ERE Motivation:
Replies: 26
Views: 1426

Re: ERE Motivation:

Freedom to use time as I preferred, freedom to pursue a wide variety of opportunities in a variety of fields in a variety of locations. Below are quotes that come to mind as my main motivation. All life is an experiment. The more experiments you make the better. The first wealth is health In skating...
by WFJ
Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:19 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 285
Views: 27492

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

Didn't read all responses. 50 year was used as the assumption is a 35-year-old who had a salary that was well above average for 10 years would also be intelligent enough to understand diet, exercise, healthcare and live longer than "Average". Given that one is 35, the average life expectan...
by WFJ
Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:53 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 285
Views: 27492

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

ERE is a 50-year or longer time period. 4% is semi-robust in a 30-year time period. Using an estimate for 50 years from a study that only lasted 30 years is called extrapolation. This violation is covered in the first few chapters of any intro to stats book and not mental gymnastics, just following ...
by WFJ
Fri Sep 16, 2022 4:35 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 285
Views: 27492

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

There appear to be two issues with any 4% discussion. 1. Is it robust? 2. Are there exceptions? 1. Set up a hypothesis test Ho = 4% rule is not a viable retirement strategy for a 50 yr duration Ha = 4% is a viable retirement strategy for a 50 yr duration Then test the statements and determine what l...
by WFJ
Fri Sep 16, 2022 4:10 pm
Forum: Work & Education
Topic: Bullshit Jobs and The Future of the Economy
Replies: 25
Views: 1617

Re: Bullshit Jobs and The Future of the Economy

Ending ZIRP and QE will solve this. Most of these BS jobs are a feature of zombie companies and will go away over the next few years. During the dotcom era, I had a job on a team with 7 other people. All performance measures were tracked and me and another team member were more productive than the o...
by WFJ
Tue Sep 13, 2022 2:27 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 285
Views: 27492

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

Some points from above. Sampling = Does the S&P 500 over the last 100 years contain all possible asset returns? This is an assumption of the 4% rule and is 100% false. Price subsidies = These are INCREDIBLY inflationary and only create the need for more subsidies and never increase supply. The m...
by WFJ
Tue Sep 13, 2022 2:09 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Investments Trade Log
Replies: 2897
Views: 621106

Re: Investments Trade Log

you consider zirp over, then? bc most of the podcasts i listen to seem to be of the opinion the market at large assumes jpow will cave in and do another round of old-style easing once this round of tightening gets bad enough (which according to them it will, people seem to anticipate a major crash ...
by WFJ
Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:57 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: Americans - Have you had a hospital stay or expensive treatment with health insurance?
Replies: 15
Views: 1551

Re: Americans - Have you had a hospital stay or expensive treatment with health insurance?

Yes, usually had to pay a copay plus $1,000 out of pocket. These ranged from, melanoma several visits and procedures ($200) suspected heart attack ($1000), false appendicitis ($1000), serious car accident with major surgeries ($2000), appendicitis's ($2500), emergency room death ($1000). Main risk i...
by WFJ
Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:41 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 285
Views: 27492

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

Power rates in UK/EU are providing a painful example for why long-term financial estimations are problematic and taken with great care. Even Jacob would struggle sticking to a budget this Winter in Europe. I have a quite low SWR, but still plan to return to work if positions are of interest as my ma...
by WFJ
Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:32 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Investments Trade Log
Replies: 2897
Views: 621106

Re: Investments Trade Log

Be careful on the long side. ZIRP and QT were experiments without a control sample.
by WFJ
Thu Sep 08, 2022 2:31 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: SWR milestone record
Replies: 297
Views: 184665

Re: SWR milestone record

I recently did a (temporary) move to a VHCOL area (career opportunity). My SWR skyrocketed to nearly 18% (up from 8.3%) but not planning on staying here especially given the recent collapse in tech valuations. I thought there was a lot of paper money waiting for me at cliff date but looking at how ...
by WFJ
Mon Sep 05, 2022 3:06 pm
Forum: Transportation Questions
Topic: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?
Replies: 119
Views: 11508

Re: Will Gas Stations Exist In 15 Years?

Someone posed this question 20+ years ago in a desert that is flush with water due to a dam that is subject to significant volatility of supply, "Should water be provided to urban tourist areas with $250/round golf course that generates millions in tax revenues (who also donate to political cam...
by WFJ
Mon Sep 05, 2022 2:53 pm
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: BaristaFIRE, CoastFIRE, LeanFIRE, FatFIRE, PovertyFIRE etc
Replies: 73
Views: 5262

Re: BaristaFIRE, CoastFIRE, LeanFIRE, FatFIRE, PovertyFIRE etc

Random thoughts: Ageism: There are two reasons for this 1. Up or out and 2. Salt mines. 1. There are several jobs which although advertise specific skills, the job is a "Survivor" contest to identify future partners. Accounting, Law, Investment Banking are examples where entry level jobs a...
by WFJ
Mon Sep 05, 2022 2:24 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 285
Views: 27492

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

Botom spacing fixed. One can copy the numbers and paste in Excel for one number per cell. The second simplest critique of the 4% rule is a "relevant range" violation. During the sample period, there was never a period with ZIRP for 12 years. Interest rates are probably the most important f...
by WFJ
Fri Sep 02, 2022 2:18 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 285
Views: 27492

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

From an ERE perspective, the main problem with using the "4%" rule is that it is a "30-year 4% rule". Had the paper been called the "30-year retirement rule" it's possible more would understand using 4% for more than 30 years violates one of the most basic standards in ...
by WFJ
Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:06 pm
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: BaristaFIRE, CoastFIRE, LeanFIRE, FatFIRE, PovertyFIRE etc
Replies: 73
Views: 5262

Re: BaristaFIRE, CoastFIRE, LeanFIRE, FatFIRE, PovertyFIRE etc

Is anyone pursuing a BaristaFIRE or CoastFIRE approach? Looking back, probably followed some kind of mix of both of these. Believe the term is "serial-mini retiree" that combines both Barista and Coast. I've been retired well over 10 years out of 25 years of working, but typically had &qu...
by WFJ
Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:58 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: How would you express this trade?
Replies: 6
Views: 1063

Re: How would you express this trade?

One could use a Bull Call Spread with this in mind. Basically, one would buy a call option at a low price then sell a call option at a higher price on the same security and same expiration date to help finance the purchase. A simple example would be to buy a SPY 4,200 October call and sell a SPY 5,2...
by WFJ
Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:53 pm
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?
Replies: 99
Views: 7244

Re: Which countries are the most resilient in the years to come?

This depends on what one defines as "resilient". Do you want growth or maximize the probability of survival? For resilience due to growth, the US is almost impossible to beat as friendly neighbors, energy/food independent and large scale are unmatched in the world to develop resilience thr...