Early Retirement Extreme Forums

@WFJ: interesting strategy I understand logic if you dont have the job right now. Why work hard to find the job when it's hard? But if you already have the job, now is the best time to keep it? Did timing just occur by accident, that you lost jobs when markets crashed? (I guess not full accident......

OP: Didn't plan this strategy but worked in practice. My assumption was that the utility of my leisure is fixed, independent of market conditions, but the value of my labor is highly correlated to market conditions. I've worked when times were good and coasted when times were not (maybe 60% working ...

OP. Are you (or anyone asking for general advice on moving somewhere they've never even been on vacation) familiar with the parable of the blind men and the elephant? One's experience in SE Asia, Latin America, ISS, the Moon, will depend on what part of the elephant you grab. If one is not experienc...

Add: Okay, so this has been done and is given as 4% in 95% of the cases or some such. Now, the question is how many understand what that means and how many go "hey 95% is so close to 100% that it's not going to happen to me!". Would the discussion change if "the answer" was give...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/forge ... 1664559109

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=4227132

IMHO, the 4% rule will leave many in a precarious position at some point in their retirement.

Anti-Fragile = Structure your life/career to benefit from stress, like bones. Bones benefit from stress, grow stronger under stress, most modern systems and careers grow weaker over time, become brittle and eventually shatter when exposed to stress. Be like a bone.

OP, stop trading anything. Follow the most basic asset allocation model and get a job at Chipotle. The extra money you earn will 10X any return you generate in attempting to hedge currency risks. Currency hedging is INCREIBLY risky and introduces all kinds of issues with taxes and leverage that requ...

S&P 500 Quick Ratio 0.53 S&P 500 companies pay almost double the debt with cash. 0% chance the US equity market will be worth $0. Even if all corporate debt had a 1 day duration, there is no chance S&P 500 in aggregate would go bankrupt. Even at 100% rates, S&P 500 would have a value...

Theory vs. Practice Most fields have a mix of both, with different levels of importance. Stats is nearly all theory, Finance is nearly all practice (any theory can be tested and either supported or refuted) while Physics can have both theory and practice (something like gravity requires both). ERE a...

I would add a Z axis to represent time. The theory vs practice debate is highly dependent from a cross-sectional and longitudinal perspective. In investing, would you rather have no theoretical understanding and be rich and or a have beautiful/robust theory but broke? Know how to do theory, but in r...

In my past and future ERE time I roughly pursue a mix of physical health activities and some kind of formal intellectual pursuits. I roughly have these pursuits/ideas always in my mind if I were to be fired or company closed tomorrow my entire life as both of these have happened several times, plan ...

@WFJ, so do I get it right from what you write that the folk hired for PR would be the 'learned data science first' ones? The metaphor of going up the stream of data resonates with me, find this appealing. I slowly realise that I am rather low down the stream of data handlers now! There is an upsid...

Another day, another post on Hacker News about disullusionment with modern data analyst (aka "data scientist") career: https://ryxcommar.com/2022/11/27/goodbye-data-science/ Very good article. The only perspective that might be lacking is a layering issue, which came first, the data or th...

My experience... I am NOT a good programmer but have had to learn Fortran, SAS, Eviews, SPSS, LaTex and minimal amounts of a few others depending on data format or who was receiving the analysis. If I work again, will probably have to learn Python as this is the main language used for new hires in d...

1. Two-factor identification 2. Email notification for any transaction over $100 3. Email notification for any trades, transaction, transfers. 4. Have accounts at several firms, ask rep to put some kind of "transaction/transfer warning" in the notes on accounts (nearly all systems have a p...

U.S. ETFs use something called an "Authorized Participant" to avoid a scenario where a few large buys/sells will impact the price due to a change in liquidity. Much more complex, simple answer is when an investor buys an S&P 500 ETF, the ETF company buys a share of an S&P 500 vehic...

Random thoughts... It appears forums fall victim to an "echo chamber effect", where individuals only seek out information they believe, beliefs are reinforced, find more information they believe, repeat. Not sure if this is what you are worried about, but a quite complex problem that spans...

Off and on for 20 years in a wide range of roles, careers and industries. If you are looking for a 9 to 5, 40-hour, 10+ year career, I would not pursue data analyst positions as most devolve into some kind of meaningless monthly report generation which are painfully boring and monotonous (Sisyphus p...

OP, Do a cash flow analysis, but as you will find, the variables that you will be extrapolating are impossible to estimate. Any estimate will likely give contradictory answers (unless you live in a sunny place with high energy costs, the house I grew up in had solar panels that heated our water supp...

8 billionth person.
https://news.yahoo.com/baby-girl-born-m ... 43783.html

Watch "Soylent Green" for overpopulation hysteria. Population Bomb was the Climate Change of the 50's and 60's.