Search found 495 matches

by zbigi
Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:06 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 284
Views: 27478

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

I can only respond to questions about hypothesis testing, data and analysis. Statistical methods are more of an art than a science and debate is always preferred in all domains of science compared to consensus, opinions and expert decrees. My statical analysis tools do not predict the future in any...
by zbigi
Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:36 pm
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: Do you dream about money?
Replies: 12
Views: 517

Re: Do you dream about money?

I don't remember ever dreaming about money specifically. I have had recurring dreams about going back to my previous career. The first day back when I'm trying to reorient myself absolutely everything goes sideways. Interestingly, I also don't have dreams about work. It must be absolutely uninteres...
by zbigi
Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:34 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Blackrock calling for the end of the Great Moderation Era
Replies: 16
Views: 941

Re: Blackrock calling for the end of the Great Moderation Era

in essence, this is the debate of, how much power do central banks have to influence the economy. is it that CBs started using interest rates as a policy tool or is it dumb luck? Maybe I have receincy bias but I don't see energy prices stabilizing soon. We're about to test this out They can stabili...
by zbigi
Tue Sep 27, 2022 3:31 am
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: Do you dream about money?
Replies: 12
Views: 517

Re: Do you dream about money?

Never ever had a dream about money. Which is interesting, seeing how many years I've spent at work to get it.
by zbigi
Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:39 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 284
Views: 27478

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

jacob wrote:
Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:10 am
That makes perfect sense, thanks. The law capping the amount of treasury stock a company may hold pretty much kills my scenario.
by zbigi
Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:00 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 284
Views: 27478

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

Part of the problem is that the seller of the last share can't refuse payment in cash or in kind. If they want to donate the company itself, they'd have to sell it first, thereby eliminating the corporation, and then donate the business (or the cash) to ... whoever they want to, like the executive ...
by zbigi
Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:55 am
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: Lemur Journal!
Replies: 810
Views: 191297

Re: Lemur Journal!

Tchaikovsky Violin Concerto D Major Op.35 - Bomsori Kim https://youtu.be/Qf9FKZicwL4 I just admire the incredible skill I'm seeing. That violinist easily has over 10k hours...likely doing so since they were a kid. Notice the dozens of people playing in the back (aka the orchestra). They've also bee...
by zbigi
Mon Sep 26, 2022 4:49 am
Forum: Work & Education
Topic: Who else earns in a currency other than dollars
Replies: 5
Views: 402

Re: Who else earns in a currency other than dollars

I'm earning in euros right now (after quiting in early Feb a job that paid in USD, sigh) and yeah, seeing how my earning are worth less and less every month, it somewhat kills my incentive to continue working. Especially, since given what's happening in the markets and with currencies right now, it ...
by zbigi
Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:44 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 284
Views: 27478

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

No, you're thinking of the company as an entity in and of itself which is incorrect in this context. The company is owned by the remaining shareholders. If a company buys back shares on the open market, it's technically buying out some ex-shareholders on behalf of the remaining shareholders. TL;DR ...
by zbigi
Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:48 am
Forum: Miscellaneous
Topic: ERE Motivation:
Replies: 26
Views: 1425

Re: ERE Motivation:

Also, if you're prepared for resource depletion, you're prepared for pretty much anything, so climate change is a comparable cakewalk. I was wondering about that recently. Back when you were just starting ERE, you were a strong believer in economic decline scenarios (e.g. peak oil) and yet you were...
by zbigi
Sun Sep 25, 2022 8:45 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 284
Views: 27478

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

My guess ... it probably would never happen. If a company proceeded in that direction I think the last shareholder of record would own the entire company and would have no motivation to sell his share to himself. To sell out he'd have to find a third party buyer. The exception is maybe if the compa...
by zbigi
Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:24 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 284
Views: 27478

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

Re: buybacks - I have a silly side question: what happens when the company buys back 100% of its stock and effectively owns itself? Who gets put on the board of directors? I'm guessing that, since the owner of company A is company A, the current management gets to decide who the new directors will be?
by zbigi
Fri Sep 23, 2022 2:41 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 284
Views: 27478

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

I would say that the idea of creating the Noble House (see James Clavell--one of my favorite authors, and probably my favorite book) is not inherently ridiculous. There's something powerful about building something great, a Rothschild like legacy. Rotschild was a cold, work-obsessed asshole (his le...
by zbigi
Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:56 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 284
Views: 27478

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

I'd given it a glance and saw some parallels with stuff I'd picked up reading John Bogle's writing. Worth the read, if for no other reason than to get exposed to the idea that until sometime in the early 20th century investment portfolios were measured by their yield not their market value, and tha...
by zbigi
Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:28 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air
Replies: 284
Views: 27478

Re: The 4% Rule – A Castle in the Air

Please note that life expectancy at age 30 is different from life expectancy at birth. In Switzerland, life expectancy at birth is 81 years for men and 85.1 years for women. Once you make it to age 30, your additional life expectancy changes to a further 51.8 years for men, and 55.7 years for women...
by zbigi
Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:15 am
Forum: Work & Education
Topic: Bullshit Jobs and The Future of the Economy
Replies: 25
Views: 1617

Re: Bullshit Jobs and The Future of the Economy

I agree, although I count it as a form of complexity. All software organizations just deal with things that are super complex (the software component itself is like a swiss watch times a billion, plus like you said they are questions of business relevance etc), and, complexity breeds inefficiency. ...
by zbigi
Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:43 pm
Forum: Work & Education
Topic: Bullshit Jobs and The Future of the Economy
Replies: 25
Views: 1617

Re: Bullshit Jobs and The Future of the Economy

Bigger organisations are certainly harder to manage but I suspect there is something more going on. Modern work has evolved to be less physical and more mentally demanding. That type of work is much harder to measure. If someone writes 100 lines of code it's hard to tell whether that is efficient o...
by zbigi
Tue Sep 20, 2022 12:40 pm
Forum: Work & Education
Topic: Bullshit Jobs and The Future of the Economy
Replies: 25
Views: 1617

Re: Bullshit Jobs and The Future of the Economy

@zbigl -- It sounds like we need to have less centralization in order to let more people actually do productive work again. Maybe the federal government (and the large companies which lobby congresspeople) have gotten so large that they are creating BS jobs regardless of the level of access to tech...
by zbigi
Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:50 am
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: M's Journal
Replies: 92
Views: 14837

Re: M's Journal

I have been making salads at home for a few days now. I'm too lazy to calculate the money savings but the time savings have been more appreciated than I expected. I have noticed I am more likely to take walks now. Not driving anywhere for days at a time is nice also. I know driving very mildly stre...
by zbigi
Tue Sep 20, 2022 2:29 am
Forum: Work & Education
Topic: Bullshit Jobs and The Future of the Economy
Replies: 25
Views: 1617

Re: Bullshit Jobs and The Future of the Economy

I think the predominant cause is the mismanagement. The bigger the organization, the more complex and nebulous its goals, the harder it is to make sure all people in it are working towards them. [1] It's not actually a function of wealth - state officials in very poor countries can also often get aw...