Search found 143 matches
- Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:14 am
- Forum: Money Questions
- Topic: What would you do if market prices were truly a random walk?
- Replies: 25
- Views: 2485
Re: What would you do if market prices were truly a random walk?
@Bankai: you don't need liquidty (size and concentration are variations on the same theme) when using technical analysis, precisely because almost all technical analysis boils down to trend following aka momentum investing/trading. Without much liquidity, you can force a trend. Then you primarily ne...
- Fri Feb 12, 2021 3:59 am
- Forum: Money Questions
- Topic: What would you do if market prices were truly a random walk?
- Replies: 25
- Views: 2485
Re: What would you do if market prices were truly a random walk?
@Bankai: Renaissance Technologies has a special fund that is NOT open to outsiders. That's the one which has dominated short-term trading for past 30 years. I have no idea what the open funds are about. They may not be similar to that closed fund. Also, every dog has its day. It's quite possible ano...
- Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:37 pm
- Forum: Money Questions
- Topic: What would you do if market prices were truly a random walk?
- Replies: 25
- Views: 2485
Re: What would you do if market prices were truly a random walk?
@LuckyC: Market Wizards was written long ago. As I wrote previously, what appear to random market fluctuations are probably not entirely random because of underlying human psychological biases. The underlying patterns are what Market Wizards guys were taking advantage of. Then along came Renaissance...
- Wed Feb 10, 2021 1:40 pm
- Forum: Money Questions
- Topic: What would you do if market prices were truly a random walk?
- Replies: 25
- Views: 2485
Re: What would you do if market prices were truly a random walk?
@Bankai: I don't know the details of that contest, but plenty of lottery winners do much better: +100,000,000% in a single week in some cases (buy one $1 ticket, win $1,000,000). Better hedge funds, like Renaissance, are consistent winners over decades. Are those investment contest winners also cons...
- Sat Jan 23, 2021 4:00 pm
- Forum: Money Questions
- Topic: Hussman shows a risk of 50-66% [US stock]market losses
- Replies: 66
- Views: 10964
Re: Hussman shows a risk of 50-66% [US stock]market losses
Government resources are vast, but they are not infinite. Government resources to fight depression are infinite. Period. Real world resources another story. No unlimited supply of humans to do labor or iron ore to make steel, for example. But infinite supply of money, yes. And that's all that matte...
- Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:51 am
- Forum: Money Questions
- Topic: Hussman shows a risk of 50-66% [US stock]market losses
- Replies: 66
- Views: 10964
Re: Hussman shows a risk of 50-66% [US stock]market losses
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." - Professor Irving Fisher, 15 Oct 1929 He would have been correct if the consensus in the 1930's for what constitutes wise economic policy was what it is today. Prior to the 1950's, stocks were usually much cheaper tha...
- Thu Jan 07, 2021 3:41 pm
- Forum: Money Questions
- Topic: Bitcoin on the rise
- Replies: 439
- Views: 89434
Re: Bitcoin on the rise
Unlike shemp, I do not think this is ruled out by BTC's lack of state power. BTC may not be able to exercise physical force, but brute force cannot break modern encryption. Issue of state power is that states can force people to pay taxes in their currency, or they can confiscate real assets and gi...
- Tue Jan 05, 2021 1:40 pm
- Forum: Introduce Yourself
- Topic: 58yo perma-traveler, retired at 38yo
- Replies: 48
- Views: 10312
Re: 58yo perma-traveler, retired at 38yo
To reiterate, if a person wants physical pleasure, masturbation plus drugs is the way to go. Only the crudest mental retards are at this level. Normal humans are socialized during adolescence to feel uncomfortable living in complete solitude and masturbating. Because women are so prone to "atte...
- Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:13 pm
- Forum: Money Questions
- Topic: On the risk of investing in real estate for the long run
- Replies: 115
- Views: 21615
Re: On the risk of investing in real estate for the long run
[...discusses various factors that advantage owner occupied real estate...] Another factor for the average person is that a mortgage is the only way to get access to the benefits/risks of leverage. And you aren't the first person to notice these factors, by any means, and therefore prices on real e...
- Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:57 pm
- Forum: Introduce Yourself
- Topic: 58yo perma-traveler, retired at 38yo
- Replies: 48
- Views: 10312
Re: 58yo perma-traveler, retired at 38yo
As of start of last year, I was 30% cash, 70% non-USA stocks in the VXUS ETF. That ETF was up like 8% for 2020. The reason my portfolio as a whole was up about 25% (24.7% in my spreadsheet, but since I'm estimating taxes due, decimal precision is misleading, hence the rounding) is because invested m...
- Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:25 am
- Forum: Money Questions
- Topic: On the risk of investing in real estate for the long run
- Replies: 115
- Views: 21615
Re: On the risk of investing in real estate for the long run
I gave a sophisticated discussion of the OP's case earlier, but as with white belt's rebuttals, OP perhaps incapable of understanding these arguments. Here's a simpler argument. Owning real estate has essentially the same set of risks as owning stocks. Therefore, in the very long run and averaging a...
- Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:46 am
- Forum: Health Questions
- Topic: COVID topic vol 2
- Replies: 747
- Views: 47032
Re: COVID topic vol 2
If maximum drawdown is the criterion, then vaccines and hospital treatment are both off the table (and not just for covid), because there's always the chance you'll die or be left paralyzed from the neck down due to some one in a billion allergic reaction or hospital acquired infection. Driving also...
- Sat Jan 02, 2021 1:46 pm
- Forum: Introduce Yourself
- Topic: 58yo perma-traveler, retired at 38yo
- Replies: 48
- Views: 10312
Re: 60yo perma-traveler, retired at 38yo
I pay the girl per meeting. Reason is to create a strong association in the girl's mind between sex and money. Good sex => she gets money. No sex or bad sex => possibility I'll replace her and she gets no more money. Paid girlfriends need to be constantly reminded that they can and will be replaced ...
- Fri Jan 01, 2021 3:04 pm
- Forum: Money Questions
- Topic: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021
- Replies: 22
- Views: 1872
Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2021
I see no good alternative to REASONABLY PRICED stocks and real-estate. Since I anticipate violent dips in the stock market eventually, I might switch from current 2% cash, 98% stocks to maybe 30%/70%, to be prepared to buy back in during a dip. Then again, maybe not. I have the right personality for...
- Fri Jan 01, 2021 2:00 pm
- Forum: Introduce Yourself
- Topic: 58yo perma-traveler, retired at 38yo
- Replies: 48
- Views: 10312
Re: 58yo perma-traveler, retired at 38yo
End of year update. Plan for 2020 was hiking in Spain in spring, city living in Kyiv, Ukraine in summer, hiking in Bulgaria in autumn, bicycle touring in southwest USA in winter. Plans were upset by hysterical worldwide overreaction to covid-19. (I expect hysterical overreaction to eventually provok...
- Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:48 am
- Forum: Money Questions
- Topic: Investments Trade Log
- Replies: 2524
- Views: 514388
Re: Investments Trade Log
It matters not one wit whether a company pays out cash on interest or operations, as long as the recipient of the interest turns around and spends the interest. Deflation occurs when money stops circulating. Hoarding money, in other words. (The old money equation MV=P has always been stupidity induc...
- Sun Nov 15, 2020 1:16 pm
- Forum: Money Questions
- Topic: Investments Trade Log
- Replies: 2524
- Views: 514388
Re: Investments Trade Log
No, household and corporate debt does not necessarily have to be deflationary. There is no cause and effect relationship. There is correlation between debt levels and deflation, because of the reason I noted above. Namely, debt is typically concentrated in the hands of misers. Instead of spending in...
- Sun Nov 15, 2020 3:47 am
- Forum: Money Questions
- Topic: Investments Trade Log
- Replies: 2524
- Views: 514388
Re: Investments Trade Log
Creating more debt is ultimately deflationary. I don't where that slogan comes from, but it makes no sense. Do you really believe giving everyone $1 million of 10 year US government bonds paying 2% would be deflationary? Note that ordinary fiat money, whether $100 bills or electronic bank reserves ...
- Sat Nov 14, 2020 9:15 am
- Forum: Money Questions
- Topic: Investments Trade Log
- Replies: 2524
- Views: 514388
Re: Investments Trade Log
How will all of these businesses survive another lockdown period without another huge stimulus / PPP / fed liquidity injection? Some won't survive, but most will because allowing too many publicly traded corporations to fail would bring on a debt deflation. Central banks know this, so if elected go...
- Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:39 pm
- Forum: Work & Education
- Topic: what would you do? try to go to med school?
- Replies: 25
- Views: 4801
Re: what would you do? try to go to med school?
If you are already financially independent, and want to pursue medicine for its own sake, I'd advise both studying and working outside the USA. Medicine education is a combination of 3 things: theory, which is the same everywhere and can be learned independently; supervised practice, where personal ...