Search found 198 matches

by Qazwer
Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:08 pm
Forum: Miscellaneous
Topic: UAPs .. This changes everything?
Replies: 20
Views: 2751

Re: UAPs .. This changes everything?

E T Jaynes has a great piece of Bayesian logic. If the pretest probability of an alien is low enough, even seeing one would not increase it. It could just be a magic trick (Statue of Liberty can be made to disappear). If you pretest is high enough, then testimony could increase it. The same bit of d...
by Qazwer
Sat Jun 05, 2021 12:30 am
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: The Making of a Renaissance Hobo
Replies: 41
Views: 4364

Re: The Making of a Renaissance Hobo

https://www.vox.com/2016/1/14/10760622/nutrition-science-complicated Pop article but I really like how she summarizes nutrition science issues. It is far too easy to find some ‘data’ that supports whatever you want. Nutrition science has some definite truths and has improved a lot of lives but preve...
by Qazwer
Thu Jun 03, 2021 4:45 pm
Forum: Skills & Tools Questions
Topic: Methods and examples of highly developed social capital
Replies: 82
Views: 4518

Re: Methods and examples of highly developed social capital

‘ become a regular at a coffee shop, bar, ’
All I can think of is Cliff Claven
and a large group shouting ‘Norm’
by Qazwer
Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:16 pm
Forum: Skills & Tools Questions
Topic: Methods and examples of highly developed social capital
Replies: 82
Views: 4518

Re: Methods and examples of highly developed social capital

‘ that sort of thing locks you into a "tribe of outsiders" which perpetuates tribalism. "we're the smart ones, over there are the stupids with their skateboards."’ I meant that you can be the high IQ person who likes skate boards or anime or drugs or whatever - you can pick whate...
by Qazwer
Wed Jun 02, 2021 9:27 pm
Forum: Skills & Tools Questions
Topic: Methods and examples of highly developed social capital
Replies: 82
Views: 4518

Re: Methods and examples of highly developed social capital

Physician, Judge, Professor, Scientist, Corporate Executive are jobs. They after a while are not intellectually that hard. They require work. Being a genius does not help you do the work - often repetitive and mind numbing. Of course higher IQ are not needed (once you reach a certain threshold). Soc...
by Qazwer
Tue Jun 01, 2021 4:00 pm
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: Systems!- Level 6 towards 7
Replies: 261
Views: 21916

Re: Systems!- Level 6 towards 7

I read ERE as a critique of modern life of an overshoot leaving the optimal solutions. Not learning how to even do some basic sewing (loose button) given all the costs involved in outsourcing is not optimal. Likewise, modern society has become mobile and atomized with people seeking new opportunitie...
by Qazwer
Mon May 31, 2021 11:17 am
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: Systems!- Level 6 towards 7
Replies: 261
Views: 21916

Re: Systems!- Level 6 towards 7

@7w5 Level 7 realizes it will take 500 hours to learn a new skill of performing a complicated repair which is done once in their life time and it will take 1 hour to make a gourmet meal so they ask Joe the Plumber to do a quick fix and make him a gourmet level meal to bring to his wife fir Valentine...
by Qazwer
Mon May 31, 2021 10:05 am
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: Systems!- Level 6 towards 7
Replies: 261
Views: 21916

Re: Systems!- Level 6 towards 7

@7w5 -level 5 does the standard fix on the plumbing
Level 6 creates a Rube Goldberg or ssclass fix
Level 7 does the standard fix on the plumbing because she understands all the systems including codes and knows how inspectors think
Codes and laws are part of the systems
by Qazwer
Sat May 29, 2021 8:24 am
Forum: Resources & Recommended Reading
Topic: Optionality by Richard Meadows
Replies: 4
Views: 837

Re: Optionality by Richard Meadows

Flipped through some of his blog https://thedeepdish.org/optionality/ The above article seems to give a feel for his optionality argument. Options are great. They allow positive actions and protections especially in a changing world. But developing options takes time and money. There are a fixed num...
by Qazwer
Fri May 28, 2021 9:58 pm
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: The Road Goes on Forever--Sometimes in Circles
Replies: 194
Views: 20105

Re: The Road Goes on Forever--Sometimes in Circles

DBT treatment if you can find it is amazing. The results are great for a lot of diagnoses. Cognitive behavioral therapy(CBT) is often considered 1st wave therapy. DBT which is a team based approach is part of third wave of treatments. It includes CBT but merges multiple other threads. The stigma fro...
by Qazwer
Fri May 28, 2021 6:30 pm
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: The Education of Axel Heyst
Replies: 702
Views: 99397

Re: The Education of Axel Heyst

Incidental yield also gets close to salaryman job who actually loves and excels at their field - I know plenty of tenured professors who do what they do for that reason - those who fail at it (most) get eaten up by the machine There are also successful artists, doctors, lawyers and even bankers who ...
by Qazwer
Mon May 24, 2021 8:24 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Dividends over 4% rule
Replies: 13
Views: 1452

Re: Dividends over 4% rule

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/how-to-invest-dividend-stocks Total return makes more sense than dividend. Currently, companies are not focused on dividend pay outs (tax reasons). Link above top 25 US stock for dividends If you had a time machine, standard Oil would have been a good cal...
by Qazwer
Mon May 24, 2021 1:46 pm
Forum: Resources & Recommended Reading
Topic: The Network Self
Replies: 4
Views: 704

Re: The Network Self

neat framework, but how does it help me get less crazy You do not have to be stuck on one definition of yourself be it about work, family etc etc ‘ Still, regret makes sense only if you’re the person who in the past acted in some way. When you regret, renounce and apologise, you acknowledge your ch...
by Qazwer
Sat May 22, 2021 12:22 pm
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: The Education of Axel Heyst
Replies: 702
Views: 99397

Re: The Education of Axel Heyst

Are all the forms of ERE a relative young person’s game? Young being defined as someone who has the strength to ‘work’ (however defined) and the mental capabilities to create a definition of ‘work’ that makes sense for that person.
by Qazwer
Wed May 19, 2021 10:25 am
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.
Replies: 798
Views: 197092

Re: A Journey of Mindfulness--the Remaking of Life in Midstream.

Inflation matters in regards to what assets you have and how those assets react to inflation. Stocks may or may not keep up. Long term fixed income will not. Short term may or may not. Cash definitely will not To make things even more confusing, current inflation numbers are in comparison to the dep...
by Qazwer
Tue May 18, 2021 9:59 pm
Forum: Miscellaneous
Topic: Bullshit Ability as an Honest Signal of Intelligence
Replies: 46
Views: 3719

Re: Bullshit Ability as an Honest Signal of Intelligence

If you fought a battle a couple of thousand years ago - would you rather fight against a couple of people who felt obliged to tell the truth or some BS expert who could get a few thousand sun worshipers behind him?
Human evolution selects for the ability to BS and the ability to believe in BS
by Qazwer
Mon May 17, 2021 10:00 am
Forum: Miscellaneous
Topic: Bullshit Ability as an Honest Signal of Intelligence
Replies: 46
Views: 3719

Re: Bullshit Ability as an Honest Signal of Intelligence

Go back to some of modern thoughts of how and why humans evolved the way they did - language, communication and community standing allowed groups to succeed - internal to that group ability to understand work with other and be promoted is important - dual level of selection We are the species that t...
by Qazwer
Sun May 16, 2021 6:49 pm
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: Systems!- Level 6 towards 7
Replies: 261
Views: 21916

Re: Systems!- Level 6 towards 7

You may want to loop back to Kegan here and think about stages of human development - where do you get your goals from values and meaning - where does that meaning come from ‘3 other people are experienced as sources of internal validation, orientation, or authority 4 the capacity to take responsibi...
by Qazwer
Sat May 15, 2021 10:01 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Examining Inflation
Replies: 159
Views: 16300

Re: Examining Inflation

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-aven ... ates-show/

If demography is destiny, then at some point we may have deflation
by Qazwer
Wed May 12, 2021 10:58 pm
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: Food and climate change
Replies: 317
Views: 23517

Re: Food and climate change

So the general argument is (if I understand it) the cost savings of factory farming (vegetable or animal) could be greater than that of transportation cost but that externalities of carbon saving and carbon use are not captured by costs born in production or transportation. But in many cases, the ec...