Search found 9 matches

by TomPie
Tue Nov 27, 2018 4:53 am
Forum: Money and Investment Questions
Topic: Hussman shows a risk of 50-66% [US stock]market losses
Replies: 214
Views: 44763

Re: Hussman shows a risk of 50-66% [US stock]market losses

There's no inherent reason why investors can't choose to keep paper assets overvalued forever as long as it's universally agreed/believed that someone else will always buy them at the same or a higher price. It works for fiat money, so why wouldn't it work for equity securities. Hmm, sounds like 'T...
by TomPie
Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:29 am
Forum: Money and Investment Questions
Topic: The coming retirement crisis
Replies: 35
Views: 9332

Re: The coming retirement crisis

It is a good video, so my two cents: - home country bias. Yes, this pattern seems to be true in the US but the pattern is quite different in India or China. Could they take over the (global, not US) consumption and apple/ amazon will start making most of their profits n the EMs? - concentration vs. ...
by TomPie
Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Money and Investment Questions
Topic: Diversification vs. concentration
Replies: 25
Views: 4968

Re: Diversification vs. concentration

Ok, maybe one more comment. You raised some good points around diversification - related to paper investments (shares/ bonds). What I was (more) talking about is diversification across asset types - to simplify I distinguish three categories: paper assets; real estate and business (and maybe work, b...
by TomPie
Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Money and Investment Questions
Topic: Lump sum vs. DCA
Replies: 11
Views: 2777

Re: Lump sum vs. DCA

And here is the answer to my question with data to back it up.

https://www.onefpa.org/journal/Pages/JA ... mance.aspx

TL;DR - if the Shiller CAPE 10 is above 31 DCA beats Lump sum investing 100% of the time.
by TomPie
Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:40 pm
Forum: Money and Investment Questions
Topic: Diversification vs. concentration
Replies: 25
Views: 4968

Diversification vs. concentration

I would like to hear your thoughts/ what’s your approach. As an example - I have a portfolio of rental properties. Around 70% of my Net worth is in these rentals. Paper assets (index funds) are ~ 15%, rest is in cash. Obviously the rentals represent a concentrated risk (little regional diversificati...
by TomPie
Sat Oct 20, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Money and Investment Questions
Topic: Lump sum vs. DCA
Replies: 11
Views: 2777

Re: Lump sum vs. DCA

Thanks guys, this was helpfull. I should have noted that I have a portfolio of rental properties so I can afford to wait. Anyway, there’s a related question of diversificatiin vs concentration of your portfolio but I’ll raise it as a separate thread.
by TomPie
Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:17 am
Forum: Money and Investment Questions
Topic: Lump sum vs. DCA
Replies: 11
Views: 2777

Lump sum vs. DCA

Hi All, I need your help with the following question. Imagine that you have 100k in cash right now. You have two options (to keep it simple). Invest it (global portfolio, index funds - to keep it simple again) as a Lump sum or dollar cost average over the next 1-3 years. Now the issue. Assume that t...
by TomPie
Mon Jul 02, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Money and Investment Questions
Topic: Moving Away From Indexing
Replies: 86
Views: 22767

Re: Moving Away From Indexing

Every time I hear discussion on 'which strategy is the best" Meb Faber's research comes to my mind. In his book Global Asset Allocation (you can get it for free here - http://freebook.mebfaber.com/ ) he compared 13+ most famous allocation strategies. Permanent portfolio; Swedroe; 60/40; Buffet'...
by TomPie
Tue Jun 19, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Philosophy and Lifestyle Questions
Topic: Are you Happy?
Replies: 105
Views: 18229

Re: Are you Happy?

Coming back to the meta-question of ‘Happiness’. Many have tried to answer the question “How to be happy in life”. And many came to a conclusion that Siefmund Freud coined as “Lieben und Arbeiten” (to love and to work). Lieben - have people around you that you love and who love you. To be more speci...