Search found 86 matches

by arcyallen
Wed Jun 12, 2019 7:13 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Portfolio Allocation Timing Models
Replies: 35
Views: 5651

Re: Portfolio Allocation Timing Models

Basically, you take money out of asset classes when they aren't doing well and put them into something that is doing really good. If by "aren't doing well" you mean asset class has gone down in price and if by "doing really good" means asset class has gone up in price...isn't that selling low so yo...
by arcyallen
Sat May 11, 2019 8:35 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: What's The Next Bubble?
Replies: 27
Views: 5175

What's The Next Bubble?

For almost ten years I've been asking myself this. And for ten years, I haven't been able to figure it out yet because after all, there hasn't been a popping sound yet. I thought for awhile it was emerging market investments, but those didn't pop they just fizzled out a bit. My only current guess is...
by arcyallen
Sat May 04, 2019 9:21 am
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: Method to minimize yard work
Replies: 34
Views: 7406

Re: Method to minamize yard work

Here's my conversation with my city regarding my "tall grass": Me: "You've sent me a letter threatening me with a $500 fine if I don't cut my grass. Are you kidding me?" City: "Your grass needs to be less than 12" high. And we didn't threaten you with a fine." Me: "You sent me a copy of the city rul...
by arcyallen
Sat Apr 27, 2019 9:36 am
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: TENS Units
Replies: 3
Views: 849

Re: TENS Units

Both my wife and I have used one in the past, just a simple over the counter unit. It does seem to feel strangely good while you're using it, but we differ about after effects. She thinks it helped after she stopped using it, I didn't notice much lasting effect. Both of us agree it seems to distract...
by arcyallen
Thu Apr 11, 2019 5:04 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: S&P 500 Price Increase over time
Replies: 10
Views: 2051

Re: S&P 500 Price Increase over time

One thing that's missing from the "price" is the change in dividends/dividend policy over time. This brings up a simpler explanation: Dividend payouts have been going down over time. Now instead of payouts you'll see higher share price. If this chart is measuring just share price (not a very helpfu...
by arcyallen
Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:35 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?
Replies: 31
Views: 5283

Re: Anyone else feeling depressed about global equities 10 year outlook?

So much for the myth of getting rich by working hard, making sacrifices, saving and investing. None of that means zilch if you happened to be born and enter the economy in the wrong period and all your hard work, blood sweat and tears pays only a measly pathetic 1% p/a. The next decade is just one ...
by arcyallen
Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:23 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Long Term Car Storage
Replies: 20
Views: 3490

Re: Long Term Car Storage

If you love the car do what you gotta do, but it seems like it's possibly a fairly large expense (insurance, storage, depreciation, etc). I assume you have no interest in selling the car and buying another in a year? If you saved $1k in expenses by selling and rebuying a $5k car, it might be worth i...
by arcyallen
Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:12 am
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: Alcohol
Replies: 27
Views: 3043

Re: Alcohol

I'll go weeks without a drink, and then weeks where I have a drink or two 4-5 days of the week. Usually late afternoon, and for no good reason other than "I want one". And I rarely have more than two. I also have found myself fond of straight whiskey, which is a tiny bit scary as that was the drink ...
by arcyallen
Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:21 am
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: Polyamory Support Group
Replies: 273
Views: 42764

Re: Polyamory Support Group

She dosen't have sex, in the traditional sense, as part of her sex work. Alright, alright, I can't be the only person thinking this. What exactly is sex work with no sex? Is she the sex clerk? "$20 for the oral, sir". Does she set up and then clean the room afterward? Is she just the whip holder, o...
by arcyallen
Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:01 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: JPM Guide to Retirement
Replies: 9
Views: 1427

Re: JPM Guide to Retirement

Another factor might be that that for many investment services you investing 3-4x as much as you need means more money under their management earning fees... So not only is it easier, it's probably also more lucrative for the firms giving this advice. I've heard this before, and I think the other s...
by arcyallen
Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:04 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: How can you judge short term trading skill?
Replies: 8
Views: 1617

Re: How can you judge short term trading skill?

Let's look at the big picture for a minute. The movement of the market in the short term (say, a year) is based much more on your fellow investors sentiment than actual value. Half your investments were held for less than six months. I'd never, ever sincerely put much credit in anything that made or...
by arcyallen
Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:34 pm
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: ERE/FIRE Radio to listen to while accumulating?
Replies: 8
Views: 1880

Re: ERE/FIRE Radio to listen to while accumulating?

Are you referring to some theme music that "feels like ERE/FIRE", or actual words? The podcasts above are pretty good (I listened to a couple of them today) and there are many more. RPF is probably my favorite overall, as it touches on many topics and the interview he does with Jacob is AWESOME, and...
by arcyallen
Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:08 am
Forum: Resources & Recommended Reading
Topic: Is Atlas Shrugged Worth the Long Read?
Replies: 81
Views: 18816

Re: Is Atlas Shrugged Worth the Long Read?

I couldn't get 1/4 of the way through the Fountainhead. I'm interested in re-reading Atlas Shrugged. So yeah. But it can be a bit...repetitive.
by arcyallen
Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:53 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Student Loan Delinquencies - Next Recession Trigger?
Replies: 45
Views: 9290

Re: Student Loan Delinquencies - Next Recession Trigger?

You can't keep borrowing money and kicking the can down the road regardless if you're a student or a government. I used to think this too, then I read Warren Buffet talk about how the national debt -is- sustainable. I hated to even contemplate it, but I think it's true. Making slowly growing intere...
by arcyallen
Sat Feb 16, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: How Much Is Enough?
Replies: 21
Views: 4885

Re: How Much Is Enough?

This is also dependent on how risk tolerant you are. For example it takes a decent bit more to FIRE at the same standard of living at a 3% SWR than at a 4% SWR. While that's true it's also surprisingly easy to get to a 3% SWR. If you want $40k at a 4% SWR you need a $1m. Waiting to achieve a 3% SWR...
by arcyallen
Sat Feb 16, 2019 9:07 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Is constructing a portfolio just another way to beat the market?
Replies: 11
Views: 2364

Re: Is constructing a portfolio just another way to beat the market?

... but rather as putting together a portfolio to efficiently support one's lifelong financial goals. Exactly. What are you goals? That's all it comes down to. The FIRE community is so caught up with VTSAX! VTSAX! that rarely anyone stops to ask "Is this actually appropriate for me, or the person I...
by arcyallen
Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Best browser extension to automatically suggest better prices for products online?
Replies: 3
Views: 714

Re: Best browser extension to automatically suggest better prices for products online?

I too have found some to be dodgy and none worked good enough to keep. I don't have an exact recommendation for what you're looking for, but I do use Keepa for Amazon. It's a price tracker, and it does two things I love: It generates a chart (automatically on the product page if you have the plugin)...
by arcyallen
Sun Feb 10, 2019 4:41 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain
Replies: 66
Views: 10907

Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

I read the two Edelweiss Journal pieces. One of my shortcomings is when something is stately snarkily like that, I can't seem to listen or agree no matter how it actually might make sense. So yeah, I think the second article was silly and the first mostly ridiculous too. I also have a hard time when...
by arcyallen
Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain
Replies: 66
Views: 10907

Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

My being emotional or neurotic or disagreeable does not prevent me from keeping an open mind... ...What irritates me about Buffett is that when the market crashes, he can waltz in and buy preferred shares of big banks with ridiculous payouts. Then he goes on TV or writes a newspaper article encoura...
by arcyallen
Sun Feb 10, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain
Replies: 66
Views: 10907

Re: Slightly Unhinged Investing Thoughts at the Corner of the Corner of Dr. Fisker’s Mountain

Let me start off by saying I didn't click on any of your links. You are obviously passionate (and possibly a bit emotional?) about this and while that feels good to you it may be clouding your judgement a bit. Before you go on the defense understand the problem with what I said (and hearing what I s...