Search found 1172 matches

by Seppia
Thu Jan 16, 2020 2:07 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Investments Trade Log
Replies: 1625
Views: 292333

Re: Investments Trade Log

Explosive growth
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKBN1ZF03N

"One can assume that Tesla has hit peak performance in the U.S. because they have not exceeded their 2018 results for five months now," said Shane Marcum, vice-president of Cross-Sell.
by Seppia
Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:44 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Investments Trade Log
Replies: 1625
Views: 292333

Re: Investments Trade Log

by Seppia
Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:29 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2020? Let's see who gets it right
Replies: 21
Views: 1349

Re: Your macro/mkt prediction for 2020? Let's see who gets it right

I predict that most predictions made about short term market directions will, in the aggregate, be slightly less accurate than a random generation would have been.
I also predict that, in the next decade, USA stocks will underperform world ex-US
by Seppia
Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:11 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Portfolio evaluation and correcting for the wealth effect
Replies: 37
Views: 1735

Re: Portfolio evaluation and correcting for the wealth effect

Hussman estimates 0.3% per yr nominal on 60/40 over the next 12 yrs. Hussman has also been spactacularly wrong for a full decade though, I'm not sure I'd turn to him for reliable forecasts :) This doesn't mean we should not expect future 10 year returns to be on the low end of the historic averages...
by Seppia
Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Portfolio evaluation and correcting for the wealth effect
Replies: 37
Views: 1735

Re: Portfolio evaluation and correcting for the wealth effect

Question. If one believes that they need to discount all these assets up to 50% due to valuations, what justification is their to not sell? As for Dave, I don’t discount my equities 50% because I believe that is their correct value. It’s what I consider a realistic “worst case scenario”. Visualizin...
by Seppia
Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Portfolio evaluation and correcting for the wealth effect
Replies: 37
Views: 1735

Re: Portfolio evaluation and correcting for the wealth effect

25% lower is a surprisingly low number, I thought the “real downside” was much bigger. I understand markets can go down much more than your “fair value” estimate, but still. I also understand it is probably influenced by your specific asset allocation, do you know what it would be for a typical 60/4...
by Seppia
Tue Dec 31, 2019 5:51 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Investments Trade Log
Replies: 1625
Views: 292333

Re: Investments Trade Log

I’m not sure I’d call this an “extreme growth rate” https://images.app.goo.gl/ChAmd9xdwv18Zpsr5 In mature markets such as Norway (considered to be the most advanced in terms of EV acceptance), the model 3 is getting slaughtered https://www.autoblog.com/2019/11/03/norway-ev-sales-audi-e-tron/ As for ...
by Seppia
Sun Dec 29, 2019 3:32 pm
Forum: Skills & Tools Questions
Topic: Food Processor
Replies: 21
Views: 760

Re: Food Processor

Hi, I'm seeking a food processor or mixer that can handle tasks like mixing bread dough or making smoothies. These are radically different tasks. If you need to make smoothies and blend stuff that is not too tough, a stick blender will do. Buy one with a metal cylinder, plastic can break it immerse...
by Seppia
Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:19 am
Forum: Politics, and other eternal disagreements
Topic: Are tattoos stupid?
Replies: 66
Views: 2299

Re: Are tattoos stupid?

I got one when I was 18 (I’m 39), to commemorate a 6 months trip to NZ. My Maori teacher at school agreed to draw one for me, then we went to a shop he trusted and got it done. I am extremely happy I did it, but I think mine may be a peculiar case. I didn’t go in thinking “I want a tattoo”. It was m...
by Seppia
Sun Dec 29, 2019 6:00 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Investments Trade Log
Replies: 1625
Views: 292333

Re: Investments Trade Log

They are a structurally bankrupt company with extremely shaky accounting to say the least*, headed by a lying fraudster**, so there’s that. But Q4 is going to come in relatively big on the back of subsidies ending in the Netherlands (the model 3 has been the top selling car in the country), and Tesl...
by Seppia
Thu Dec 26, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates?
Replies: 101
Views: 12439

Re: Permanently low interest rates?

@MI: Don't get me wrong, I agree with you 100% on the assessment (I own a grand total of 0% usa equities right now, and 0% bonds). I've definitely increased my cash allocation, and as stated above I moved 100% away from the USA in terms of equities* It's just that I know I don't know, so I'm always ...
by Seppia
Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:06 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates?
Replies: 101
Views: 12439

Re: Permanently low interest rates?

My view: share buyacks aren't necessarily evil per-se. In a vacuum, they are probably the most tax efficient way to give capital back to shareholders. Also, if timed smartly, they can be a great investment. Problem is things don't happen in a vacuum and IIRC multiple studies show massive repurchases...
by Seppia
Wed Dec 25, 2019 5:56 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Investments Trade Log
Replies: 1625
Views: 292333

Re: Investments Trade Log

It feels like there may be some additional ugly news on Boeing, trade carefully
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe
by Seppia
Tue Dec 24, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates?
Replies: 101
Views: 12439

Re: Permanently low interest rates?

Thanks everybody for taking the time
by Seppia
Tue Dec 24, 2019 6:21 am
Forum: Miscellaneous
Topic: To those who observe ...
Replies: 10
Views: 503

Re: To those who observe ...

Thanks Dave!
Merry Christmas to you and family as well, and to all forum members
by Seppia
Tue Dec 24, 2019 4:25 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates?
Replies: 101
Views: 12439

Re: Permanently low interest rates?

No, his reasoning is purely confined to the USA - different argument than yours.
by Seppia
Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:59 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Annuities
Replies: 13
Views: 671

Re: Annuities

What ertyu is saying. Some annuities have horrible management fees, and statistically speaking they aren’t good investments. But so is insurance :) So not necessarily anathema per se if you know and understand what they are: you would be giving up upside in exchange for reduced uncertainty. In count...
by Seppia
Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:41 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Investments Trade Log
Replies: 1625
Views: 292333

Re: Investments Trade Log

Kimbal Musk sold 32% of his stake last month at around $350 and the CFO is dumping his stock options as soon as he gets them so yeah, I would definitely take some gains off the table http://openinsider.com/screener?s=TSLA&o=&pl=&ph=&ll=&lh=&fd=180&fdr=&td=0&tdr=&fdlyl=&fdlyh=&daysago=&xp=1&xs=1&vl=&...
by Seppia
Tue Dec 24, 2019 3:36 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates?
Replies: 101
Views: 12439

Re: Permanently low interest rates?

For the 10th time @Augustus: of the above is the only cause, how can you explain why Europe and Japan who have even lower bond yields aren’t experiencing a similar lift?

@ertyu: very plausible outcome. The incentives to do so are simply not there. Why create a massive crisis?
by Seppia
Mon Dec 23, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates?
Replies: 101
Views: 12439

Re: Permanently low interest rates?

Ok we’re cool. I guess my point would be that in 3a + 3b situation, dealers with cash could decide to buy european, Japanese or EM equities. Instead, they buy USA equities. So there is an active choice there. Regarding the last paragraph, I usually don’t like to look at how smart billionaires invest...