Early Retirement Extreme Forums

Explosive growth
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... SKBN1ZF03N

"One can assume that Tesla has hit peak performance in the U.S. because they have not exceeded their 2018 results for five months now," said Shane Marcum, vice-president of Cross-Sell.

https://www.plainsite.org/realitycheck/tsla.pdf

Very interesting read on Tesla

I predict that most predictions made about short term market directions will, in the aggregate, be slightly less accurate than a random generation would have been.
I also predict that, in the next decade, USA stocks will underperform world ex-US

Hussman estimates 0.3% per yr nominal on 60/40 over the next 12 yrs. Hussman has also been spactacularly wrong for a full decade though, I'm not sure I'd turn to him for reliable forecasts :) This doesn't mean we should not expect future 10 year returns to be on the low end of the historic averages...

Question. If one believes that they need to discount all these assets up to 50% due to valuations, what justification is their to not sell? As for Dave, I don’t discount my equities 50% because I believe that is their correct value. It’s what I consider a realistic “worst case scenario”. Visualizin...

25% lower is a surprisingly low number, I thought the “real downside” was much bigger. I understand markets can go down much more than your “fair value” estimate, but still. I also understand it is probably influenced by your specific asset allocation, do you know what it would be for a typical 60/4...

I’m not sure I’d call this an “extreme growth rate” https://images.app.goo.gl/ChAmd9xdwv18Zpsr5 In mature markets such as Norway (considered to be the most advanced in terms of EV acceptance), the model 3 is getting slaughtered https://www.autoblog.com/2019/11/03/norway-ev-sales-audi-e-tron/ As for ...

Hi, I'm seeking a food processor or mixer that can handle tasks like mixing bread dough or making smoothies. These are radically different tasks. If you need to make smoothies and blend stuff that is not too tough, a stick blender will do. Buy one with a metal cylinder, plastic can break it immerse...

I got one when I was 18 (I’m 39), to commemorate a 6 months trip to NZ. My Maori teacher at school agreed to draw one for me, then we went to a shop he trusted and got it done. I am extremely happy I did it, but I think mine may be a peculiar case. I didn’t go in thinking “I want a tattoo”. It was m...

They are a structurally bankrupt company with extremely shaky accounting to say the least*, headed by a lying fraudster**, so there’s that. But Q4 is going to come in relatively big on the back of subsidies ending in the Netherlands (the model 3 has been the top selling car in the country), and Tesl...

@MI: Don't get me wrong, I agree with you 100% on the assessment (I own a grand total of 0% usa equities right now, and 0% bonds). I've definitely increased my cash allocation, and as stated above I moved 100% away from the USA in terms of equities* It's just that I know I don't know, so I'm always ...

My view: share buyacks aren't necessarily evil per-se. In a vacuum, they are probably the most tax efficient way to give capital back to shareholders. Also, if timed smartly, they can be a great investment. Problem is things don't happen in a vacuum and IIRC multiple studies show massive repurchases...

It feels like there may be some additional ugly news on Boeing, trade carefully
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium-europe

Thanks everybody for taking the time

Thanks Dave!
Merry Christmas to you and family as well, and to all forum members

No, his reasoning is purely confined to the USA - different argument than yours.

What ertyu is saying. Some annuities have horrible management fees, and statistically speaking they aren’t good investments. But so is insurance :) So not necessarily anathema per se if you know and understand what they are: you would be giving up upside in exchange for reduced uncertainty. In count...

Kimbal Musk sold 32% of his stake last month at around $350 and the CFO is dumping his stock options as soon as he gets them so yeah, I would definitely take some gains off the table http://openinsider.com/screener?s=TSLA&o=&pl=&ph=&ll=&lh=&fd=180&fdr=&td=0&tdr=&fdlyl=&fdlyh=&daysago=&xp=1&xs=1&vl=&...

For the 10th time @Augustus: of the above is the only cause, how can you explain why Europe and Japan who have even lower bond yields aren’t experiencing a similar lift?

@ertyu: very plausible outcome. The incentives to do so are simply not there. Why create a massive crisis?

Ok we’re cool. I guess my point would be that in 3a + 3b situation, dealers with cash could decide to buy european, Japanese or EM equities. Instead, they buy USA equities. So there is an active choice there. Regarding the last paragraph, I usually don’t like to look at how smart billionaires invest...