Search found 819 matches

by slowtraveler
Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Politics, and other eternal disagreements
Topic: What is your political affiliation?
Replies: 14
Views: 412

Re: What is your political affiliation?

Probably middle of road. Most of the above responses resonate with me. The right and left talks I hear rarely resonate with me. I've heard gay conservatives make more sense than I expect. I think politics is more theatre than actually trying to improve society until people unite when something stron...
by slowtraveler
Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:26 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 2025
Views: 129780

Re: COVID-19

The exponential growth of testing has shown how widespread this already is. Flu can also cause permanent disability. So can cars. And in no small numbers. Test the whole population, I'd be shocked if the number is below 10% of the population (30 something million Americans.) The rate has been shown ...
by slowtraveler
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:55 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 2025
Views: 129780

Re: COVID-19

@Ego
In reference to the medium post regarding simply delaying the peak, you put out loads of great articles that add dimensions of complexity. I appreciate it all. Keep it coming please.
by slowtraveler
Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:39 am
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: ERE Experiment - Vagabonding a COVID-19 Minefield!
Replies: 697
Views: 126075

Re: ERE Experiment - Vagabonding a COVID-19 Minefield!

Glad to hear you're doing well in the confusing environment. 3.1% wr is quite safe so I wouldn't stress in your shoes. I'm way heavier in equities now, as the crash happened, I kept shifting into equities until I saw overwhelming pessimism beyond what was merited from my experience with the situatio...
by slowtraveler
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 2025
Views: 129780

Re: COVID-19

@7Wannabe5

The math is correct for the assumptions made: a 15% mortality rate and a 50% infection rate.

1000 people infected *15% mortality rate * 50% infection rate = 75 deaths

To confirm in a calculator:
1000*.15*.5=75
by slowtraveler
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:29 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Time to Move Investments to Safety? Implications?
Replies: 18
Views: 1112

Re: Time to Move Investments to Safety? Implications?

Basically, there are 2 ends of this. 1) Lockdown ends soon and this means stocks are cheap now, you'll make good bank on them. 2) Lockdown continues long term, companies collapse from 0 revenue, a cascade of bankruptcies follow that send us into a collapse worst than the great depression where only ...
by slowtraveler
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 2025
Views: 129780

Re: COVID-19

It appears my assumptions about a 3% infection rate were far too conservative. Every single state is showing above that in the tests. 5-20% infection rates among the tested. Lower mortality than expected is the obvious conclusion. Hope we don't shoot ourselves in the head to cure a headache by destr...
by slowtraveler
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:05 am
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 2025
Views: 129780

Re: COVID-19

2 professors of medicine at Stanford do some math and realize the fatality rate may be orders of magnitude lower than predicted because actual infections are orders of magnitude higher than current numbers. So all deaths and serious cases are counted with the lower number of confirmed infections rat...
by slowtraveler
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:45 am
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 2025
Views: 129780

Re: COVID-19

Every death now will cause 19 deaths in 17 days is inaccurate. Thailand has not been through anything even close to that. They had 0 shelter in place mandates when I was there. All they had was a temperature check, more frequent cleaning, and more mask usage. What are deaths at now? 4. They had thei...
by slowtraveler
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:39 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 2025
Views: 129780

Re: COVID-19

I think this is way overblown. I know tons of people who've had fever, diahrrea, and cough simultaneously since this started. In Thailand, they simply weren't testing much in January. Why would they want to deter tourism? I met entire families who got it. Everybody from Grandma to the newborns to th...
by slowtraveler
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:31 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Investments Trade Log
Replies: 2027
Views: 351513

Re: Investments Trade Log

Bought in 2 portfolios. Most of my assets are split between us and international index, I went nearly all in Friday. About 15% of my assets are in individual stocks divided into GOOG(6%), DEO (4%), DIS (3%), and RDSB(2%). Most of my positions were bought Friday and are up so far. Buying top shelf bl...
by slowtraveler
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:26 pm
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: What are you doing during the confinement ?
Replies: 54
Views: 3416

Re: What are you doing during the confinement ?

I'm cooking, watching movies, reading some books, learning Spanish, singing with my girlfriend, talking to friends and family, reading about stocks, planning a fun trip for when this passes.
by slowtraveler
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:17 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Long term macro effect of ncovid
Replies: 32
Views: 3356

Re: Long term macro effect of ncovid

I don't see myself as US centric at all. I haven't been there in years. I don't know what it's like anymore. I hear talk of US flailing but it seems far more competent than China. Europe, Africa, Latin America, and even Australia all seem flailing if we believe the news. China (mainland not Taiwan) ...
by slowtraveler
Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:33 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Long term macro effect of ncovid
Replies: 32
Views: 3356

Re: Long term macro effect of ncovid

I also see countries becoming more self sufficient. With the imminent growth of AI and distributed production technologies, it'll be easier for everyone to have their own capacity. The majority of value will be in the information to produce things rather than the materials. This will push many count...
by slowtraveler
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 2025
Views: 129780

Re: COVID-19

The shift has been a long time coming. It's a distribution of power. Asia as a whole will become more independent. Hopefully, we can all work together but the deception there is beyond atrocious. What you saw was propoganda, I've been extremely close to China, it's not a place I'd ever want to visit...
by slowtraveler
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 2025
Views: 129780

Re: COVID-19

China literally gave the world the disease. I'd rather not get stabbed than have someone help me heal the potentially lethal wound after they stabbed me. Wuhan held the world's biggest banquet 2 months after knowing of the outbreak. When doctors messaged each other to be careful about a possible dis...
by slowtraveler
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Investments Trade Log
Replies: 2027
Views: 351513

Re: Investments Trade Log

Sold my gold today. Kept some Wellesley. Buying indexes mostly and some of the good stuff that's on sale-GOOG, DEO, DIS.
by slowtraveler
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 2025
Views: 129780

Re: COVID-19

Does anywhere actually show how many people have been tested?
by slowtraveler
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:55 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID grocery/shopping procedures
Replies: 44
Views: 2795

Re: COVID grocery/shopping procedures

I get there when they open so I woke up around 6 today to make it at 7. Don full gear there- workshop goggles, gloves, and a 3 layer mask. Buy foods to cook or wash with soap then salt water rinse then fresh water rinse. Buy staples like bread, rice, potatoes, tortillas, and beets. Then some avocado...
by slowtraveler
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:26 pm
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: Five Years, Lord Willing
Replies: 574
Views: 94479

Re: Five Years, Lord Willing

Are you being counted in the official numbers?