Search found 344 matches

by black_son_of_gray
Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates?
Replies: 45
Views: 5954

Re: Permanently low interest rates?

I once read a paper on option pricing that IIRC started with the axiom that the market always strove to maximize disagreement. [...] I like the triple or N-ple point theory, but I fear that the market is ALWAYS in such a state unless it's moving rapidly. Therefore, it's not directly useful. A fair ...
by black_son_of_gray
Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates?
Replies: 45
Views: 5954

Re: Permanently low interest rates?

In chemistry, if we want to know what state a substance will be in, we can plot out a phase diagram—a graph of temperature and pressure that shows the boundaries of the different states. An example diagram for water: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/34/Phase-diag2.svg/500px-Pha...
by black_son_of_gray
Sat Aug 17, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: On the risk of investing in stocks for the long run
Replies: 63
Views: 7529

Re: On the risk of investing in stocks for the long run

@Seppia Good point! Additional note: Didn't Pfau also have some analysis showing the 4% rule didn't apply for most European countries—it was really a 2.5-3% SWR world over there? Which isn't to say that the same isn't true for the US now as well, just that historically 4% worked in the US. But at 30...
by black_son_of_gray
Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:20 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: On the risk of investing in stocks for the long run
Replies: 63
Views: 7529

Re: On the risk of investing in stocks for the long run

The comment "You need to beat inflation over the long term. Stocks are the only assets that do this." is simply factual. It's not me or my or a personal opinion. It's a fact based on how markets and inflation have performed over time. @steveo73 Of all the posters on this forum, I find you to be one...
by black_son_of_gray
Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:00 am
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: Medical charter tourism
Replies: 9
Views: 1223

Re: Medical charter tourism

Built into the business model of this hospital in the Cayman Islands: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjQCCgyhmU8
by black_son_of_gray
Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:58 pm
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: black_son_of_gray's Journal
Replies: 96
Views: 13857

Re: black_son_of_gray's Journal

I've found that it's actually kind of difficult to run your life when you are responsible for all or most of your time. @Jin+Guice: Yup. I’ll refer to this below as “the challenge”. A personal response : I've yet to feel any employment-related anxiety in part because my net worth hasn't gone down y...
by black_son_of_gray
Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:23 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Investments Trade Log
Replies: 1521
Views: 267369

Re: Investments Trade Log

@2Birds1Stone If CAPE 50 is the new normal, that would imply an inflation-adjusted return of ... nothing? Then why risk a potentially huge capital loss if/when stocks return to valuations similar to the past (or the rest of the world)? To this point, that 20% YTD return conveniently begins at the bo...
by black_son_of_gray
Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:59 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Investments Trade Log
Replies: 1521
Views: 267369

Re: Investments Trade Log

My two cents on the current state of the US stock market, which I present simply because it is quite different from the buy-and-hold crowd: The view from [value/long game/historically useful statistics/"weighing machine"] is that the US stock market is generally outrageously priced, meaning long-ter...
by black_son_of_gray
Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:03 am
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: black_son_of_gray's Journal
Replies: 96
Views: 13857

Re: black_son_of_gray's Journal

@2Birds1Stone: Well, if I'm good at anything, it's turning other people's ideas into chop suey with a little bit of my own seasoning. Thank you for the kind words, but please don't hesitate to comment so I can appropriate your ideas too! @classical_Liberal and @Jacob: I'm totally in agreement that E...
by black_son_of_gray
Tue Jul 30, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: black_son_of_gray's Journal
Replies: 96
Views: 13857

Re: black_son_of_gray's Journal

Life, One Year Later It's been a year since I left full-time employment. Here's an update of my situation. Finances My net worth is a few percent higher than when I left my job, which wasn't exactly expected, but welcome. I left my job with about 10 years of trailing expenses, but I knew I was ente...
by black_son_of_gray
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:18 pm
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: Reading
Replies: 19
Views: 4738

Re: Reading

If the motivation for reading is to learn more about the world, to develop some mental framework for understanding what's going on*, then maybe this is instructive: Consider the components of a generic "artificial intelligence" (AI). You've got 1) a processor (i.e. hardware), 2) an algorithm (i.e. s...
by black_son_of_gray
Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:43 pm
Forum: ERE Book/Blog/Forum
Topic: The atmosphere of the forum...
Replies: 145
Views: 13030

Re: The atmosphere of the forum...

1) [snip] there is no single definition of civility. I would rather be offended. 2) [snip] saying that others can only say what you approve of them saying, would destroy that diversity. Except that Jacob has clearly laid out guidelines on civility and the kind of posts that do and do not have his a...
by black_son_of_gray
Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: ERE Book/Blog/Forum
Topic: The atmosphere of the forum...
Replies: 145
Views: 13030

Re: The atmosphere of the forum...

@prognastat
I suppose I should clarify. My post, which is woefully lacking in clarity on this point, was mostly concerning "tone", manners, civility, etc. That is where I think the forum would benefit by having much stricter standards. (I'll edit the post to note this)
by black_son_of_gray
Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: ERE Book/Blog/Forum
Topic: The atmosphere of the forum...
Replies: 145
Views: 13030

Re: The atmosphere of the forum...

@ jacob - I largely agree with what you wrote in your OP, in particular your stated values (favoring form over content). I'm also a little in awe at how you always seem to frame situations from one hierarchical level higher, which always brings insight and a fresh perspective. You stay out of the mu...
by black_son_of_gray
Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:40 pm
Forum: Resources & Recommended Reading
Topic: Epsilon Theory
Replies: 5
Views: 1140

Epsilon Theory

I'm surprised that there is essentially no mention of Epsilon Theory here. This will get you started: https://www.epsilontheory.com/epsilon-theory-manifesto/ Our times require an investment and risk management perspective that is fluent in econometrics but is equally grounded in game theory, history...
by black_son_of_gray
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Miscellaneous
Topic: Trilemmas
Replies: 49
Views: 10220

Re: Trilemmas

https://trilemma.worldenergy.org/

Energy security, energy equity, environmental sustainability
by black_son_of_gray
Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: leanFIRE and fatFIRE definitions
Replies: 93
Views: 11210

Re: leanFIRE and fatFIRE definitions

I'm beginning to think "we" need to set some kind of standard procedures for intercomparison. It seems to me the rub is not comparisons within a Wheaton level, but between levels. In particular, the lower Wheaton levels are more concerned with income, not expenses. The middle levels are more about ...
by black_son_of_gray
Sat Dec 01, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Hussman shows a risk of 50-66% [US stock]market losses
Replies: 39
Views: 6341

Re: Hussman shows a risk of 50-66% [US stock]market losses

Where I'm not convinced is that this has been going on for years. Japanese investors have been buying US treasuries for decades because they have a higher yield than Japanese long bonds. China is propping up US markets because they need some place to put all the USD they get from selling their stuf...
by black_son_of_gray
Sat Dec 01, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Hussman shows a risk of 50-66% [US stock]market losses
Replies: 39
Views: 6341

Re: Hussman shows a risk of 50-66% [US stock]market losses

Historically these indicators only redline for 6-18 months before something happens. It's now been 5 years of redlining ... This begets the question whether these indicators still make sense. To re-phrase your question (tell me if I'm misrepresenting): "Why is the US stock market behaving as though...
by black_son_of_gray
Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: Suomalaisen Päiväkirja
Replies: 483
Views: 63227

Re: Suomalaisen Päiväkirja

My apologies, I'll take my stupid saccharine shit elsewhere.