Search found 334 matches

by black_son_of_gray
Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:18 pm
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: Reading
Replies: 19
Views: 4514

Re: Reading

If the motivation for reading is to learn more about the world, to develop some mental framework for understanding what's going on*, then maybe this is instructive: Consider the components of a generic "artificial intelligence" (AI). You've got 1) a processor (i.e. hardware), 2) an algorithm (i.e. s...
by black_son_of_gray
Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:43 pm
Forum: ERE Book/Blog/Forum
Topic: The atmosphere of the forum...
Replies: 145
Views: 11079

Re: The atmosphere of the forum...

1) [snip] there is no single definition of civility. I would rather be offended. 2) [snip] saying that others can only say what you approve of them saying, would destroy that diversity. Except that Jacob has clearly laid out guidelines on civility and the kind of posts that do and do not have his a...
by black_son_of_gray
Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:11 pm
Forum: ERE Book/Blog/Forum
Topic: The atmosphere of the forum...
Replies: 145
Views: 11079

Re: The atmosphere of the forum...

@prognastat
I suppose I should clarify. My post, which is woefully lacking in clarity on this point, was mostly concerning "tone", manners, civility, etc. That is where I think the forum would benefit by having much stricter standards. (I'll edit the post to note this)
by black_son_of_gray
Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:16 pm
Forum: ERE Book/Blog/Forum
Topic: The atmosphere of the forum...
Replies: 145
Views: 11079

Re: The atmosphere of the forum...

@ jacob - I largely agree with what you wrote in your OP, in particular your stated values (favoring form over content). I'm also a little in awe at how you always seem to frame situations from one hierarchical level higher, which always brings insight and a fresh perspective. You stay out of the mu...
by black_son_of_gray
Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:40 pm
Forum: Resources & Recommended Reading
Topic: Epsilon Theory
Replies: 5
Views: 1059

Epsilon Theory

I'm surprised that there is essentially no mention of Epsilon Theory here. This will get you started: https://www.epsilontheory.com/epsilon-theory-manifesto/ Our times require an investment and risk management perspective that is fluent in econometrics but is equally grounded in game theory, history...
by black_son_of_gray
Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Miscellaneous
Topic: Trilemmas
Replies: 49
Views: 9272

Re: Trilemmas

https://trilemma.worldenergy.org/

Energy security, energy equity, environmental sustainability
by black_son_of_gray
Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: leanFIRE and fatFIRE definitions
Replies: 93
Views: 10411

Re: leanFIRE and fatFIRE definitions

I'm beginning to think "we" need to set some kind of standard procedures for intercomparison. It seems to me the rub is not comparisons within a Wheaton level, but between levels. In particular, the lower Wheaton levels are more concerned with income, not expenses. The middle levels are more about ...
by black_son_of_gray
Sat Dec 01, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Hussman shows a risk of 50-66% [US stock]market losses
Replies: 39
Views: 6025

Re: Hussman shows a risk of 50-66% [US stock]market losses

Where I'm not convinced is that this has been going on for years. Japanese investors have been buying US treasuries for decades because they have a higher yield than Japanese long bonds. China is propping up US markets because they need some place to put all the USD they get from selling their stuf...
by black_son_of_gray
Sat Dec 01, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Hussman shows a risk of 50-66% [US stock]market losses
Replies: 39
Views: 6025

Re: Hussman shows a risk of 50-66% [US stock]market losses

Historically these indicators only redline for 6-18 months before something happens. It's now been 5 years of redlining ... This begets the question whether these indicators still make sense. To re-phrase your question (tell me if I'm misrepresenting): "Why is the US stock market behaving as though...
by black_son_of_gray
Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: Suomalaisen Päiväkirja
Replies: 455
Views: 55384

Re: Suomalaisen Päiväkirja

My apologies, I'll take my stupid saccharine shit elsewhere.
by black_son_of_gray
Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: Suomalaisen Päiväkirja
Replies: 455
Views: 55384

Re: Suomalaisen Päiväkirja

Kurt Vonnegut on his uncle Alex: My Uncle Alex, who is up in Heaven now, one of the things he found objectionable about human beings was that they so rarely noticed it when times were sweet. We could be drinking lemonade in the shade of an apple tree in the summertime, and Uncle Alex would interrupt...
by black_son_of_gray
Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Miscellaneous
Topic: Deep Adaptation
Replies: 57
Views: 7740

Re: Deep Adaptation

Some time ago I read an essay online (can't find it now, unfortunately), that started with the story of Pandora's box, in which all manner of evils were unleashed on humanity, followed at the end by "hope". They then proceeded to argue that "hope" wasn't a merciful reprieve from the evil's released,...
by black_son_of_gray
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Random investing?(!)
Replies: 23
Views: 2440

Re: Random investing?(!)

Relevant read with respect to math- and algorithms-based strategies: https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/a ... ath-Hustle
by black_son_of_gray
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Resources & Recommended Reading
Topic: Resources and recommend watching
Replies: 239
Views: 80007

Re: Resources and recommend watching

Since a number of you enjoyed the above interview with Tony Deden, here is a transcript of his remarks at a recent conference: http://edelweissjournal.com/pdfs/EdelweissJournal-019.pdf Gives some insight into his history of thinking about value and the modern marketplace - some real zingers in ther...
by black_son_of_gray
Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:39 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: Warning: WH seeks to limit/deport immigrants using ACA and other gov. services
Replies: 145
Views: 17910

Re: Warning: WH seeks to limit/deport immigrants using ACA and other gov. services

Related segment on PBS Newshour. Some of the externalities they brought up were interesting. Examples: lower immigrant utilization of services could lower citizen utilization of services (e.g. if a family mixed between immigrant and citizen chooses not to avoid the benefits so as not to limit future...
by black_son_of_gray
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:01 am
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: black_son_of_gray's Journal
Replies: 63
Views: 9414

Re: black_son_of_gray's Journal

I'm on another Vonnegut kick, and came across this sentence, in Hocus Pocus: Another flaw in the human character is that everybody wants to build and nobody wants to do maintenance. (The other flaws mentioned immediately before and after that statement: that it is human nature do disregard people yo...
by black_son_of_gray
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: Zero Wasters?
Replies: 51
Views: 6544

Re: Zero Wasters?

Well a couple threads over, @jacob made a point to the effect of (correct me if I am wrong): Money spent by a low-expense/low-waste-generating person will probably be entering the pockets of a high-expense/high-waste-generating person (i.e. "average consumer"), and on down the line as the money rico...
by black_son_of_gray
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:47 am
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: black_son_of_gray's Journal
Replies: 63
Views: 9414

Re: black_son_of_gray's Journal

It has been a little over two months since leaving my job as a scientist and moving across the country, and my day-to-day routine has shifted to a casual blend of [reading | writing | fitness | gardening]. Although I am probably still in the honeymoon phase of unemployment, it has been great. I’ve e...
by black_son_of_gray
Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: black_son_of_gray's Journal
Replies: 63
Views: 9414

Re: black_son_of_gray's Journal

@classical_Liberal I totally agree about the small town variability. Some were great and some were discomfiting, and it often wasn't immediately apparently why - just something about the gestalt of the place. Also, when I saw that a town was "sleepy", I didn't really no what to think. I kinda like s...
by black_son_of_gray
Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:45 pm
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: black_son_of_gray's Journal
Replies: 63
Views: 9414

Re: black_son_of_gray's Journal

California: SO spent a good amount of time on her smart phone before going to bed in Tahoe, trying to figure out the wildfire situation. We wanted to veer north and visit Lassen Volcanic National Park before crossing over to the northern California coast for some camping around redwoods and driving...