Search found 1427 matches

by steveo73
Sun May 24, 2020 12:36 am
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

@daylen - I was going to put group think into the section on logical fallacies. It's a terrible terrible way to discuss issues. I think it has nothing at all to do with science. I also don't judge like that. I try and listen to a broad purview of experts and I try to get into the detail. I definitel...
by steveo73
Sat May 23, 2020 8:50 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

If you believe that science cannot model objective reality, then what is the purpose of science? ..and what is the purpose of understanding if there is no objective reality? You made some great points in your post earlier on. I think we are basically on the same page. There is nothing at all wrong ...
by steveo73
Sat May 23, 2020 7:19 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

The next topic is a framework to understand and discuss science. I'd make some key points here:- 1. Science is not objective reality. It is a way to deepen our understanding of the world. 2. Science evolves. It changes. 3. Math is a tool. 4. Modern day statistical analysis is a huge competent of mod...
by steveo73
Sat May 23, 2020 7:10 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

I thought I'd leave this a little bit but it's very interesting. I think we have a couple of themes here - how to discuss/debate an issue and then having a good philosophical framework to discuss science. I'll take the how to discuss/debate an issue firstly and make some points:- 1. If you utilize l...
by steveo73
Thu May 21, 2020 9:14 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

steveo: if you really think any prediction made here or elsewhere was made with certainty, I'm very sorry that you misunderstood that so badly. Let's be very clear in that I haven't changed my position throughout this discussion. I have never stated that predictions have any certainty at all attach...
by steveo73
Thu May 21, 2020 6:17 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

Insofar one does not understand the difference, confusion obtains. Jacob - it's not that simple. Those predictions were predictions that were stated with confidence and I remember people stating it's just the maths. That shows a complete lack of understanding of the science. If you knew that at the...
by steveo73
Thu May 21, 2020 4:39 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

No, you don't know that. Of course it was. It was also extremely incorrect. Just break it down into simplistic terms. Were 500k deaths predicted in the UK and 2 million deaths predicted in the USA ? Yes. Did that occur. No. Ergo:- those predictions were completely incorrect and a great example of p...
by steveo73
Thu May 21, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

You don't know that because we didn't let it run its course. Correct but it appears highly unlikely. The science was definitely incorrect. It was incorrect whenever a simplistic exponential model was utilized. The reality is that this virus progresses exponentially in certain situations but not acr...
by steveo73
Wed May 20, 2020 4:25 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

That was when the policy was to let the virus run through the community until we attained herd immunity. That was deemed politically unacceptable hence we started to lock things down. It was an alarmist prediction that was so far off base it wasn't funny. Alarmist predictions are poor science and s...
by steveo73
Tue May 19, 2020 9:44 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

How bad would it have to get before you feel being alarmist is justified? The point is that alarmist is never justified. Alarmist implies a lack of understanding of science. Alarmists exaggerate the situation because they don't understand the science. We need to be cognizant of this bias within peo...
by steveo73
Tue May 19, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

And there is the irony. It is early days and your skepticism about the outcome, if widely held, will make it true. It's interesting. I don't agree with the skepticism comment but the progression of this virus is impacted by the way human beings react. There may be other factors as well. The progres...
by steveo73
Tue May 19, 2020 7:00 am
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

In the UK it has been worse than the scientific predictions, back in March we were told total deaths would be about 20,000 but it's way beyond that already. Interesting. I think the alarmist models were extremely inaccurate. I'm pretty sure that Neal Ferguson contributed to this and he is a UK scie...
by steveo73
Mon May 18, 2020 8:49 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

It's science and it's the math, and it looks pretty good to me. Post lockdown, people stopped using constant doubling time exponential functions to predict further time evolution for obvious (at least to those with an understanding of the science) reasons. Bingo. All the alarmists who didn't unders...
by steveo73
Mon May 18, 2020 8:40 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

Dude, it spreads exponentially until something reduces the number of available hosts, like lockdowns or behavior changes. You can easily, easily see this on a log-log chart like Covid Trends. Doubling time of 2-3 days. Exactly, It's why you can't just utliize a simplistic exponential model because ...
by steveo73
Mon May 18, 2020 8:35 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

If the problem is clearly stated or the model clearly describes assumptions then it is only meant to be understood as more or less correct within the confines of its description inclusive of data and assumptions. It’s really rare to come across models where assumptions or data are hidden. The probl...
by steveo73
Mon May 18, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

The fact that geniuses make mistakes is not a license to promote your or my judgment over that of experts where it is convenient to you or me, or is it? Definitely not. I think it is though completely obvious that we cannot trust scientists predictions of the future. They get it wrong all the time....
by steveo73
Mon May 18, 2020 7:27 am
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

So what we just need to do, is use information we don't have to project the range of possibilities. And then do just the right thing at the right time. Brilliant! I don't understand this attitude. I'm stating the exact opposite approach. I'm stating when we don't have certainty we need to accept th...
by steveo73
Sun May 17, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

On the other hand, we also have to quit listening to optimistic pipe dreams from the Trump administration. I want to be clear that this is a twofold approach and it's designed to get the loonies away from running the asylum. It's not about accepting all risk and just putting your head in the sand. ...
by steveo73
Sun May 17, 2020 7:36 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

@steve073: Sounds good. When will the risk management based model you are working on be ready for presentation? It's very simple and we have it now. It's just a standard approach to risk management. You have a probability of an event occurring and the impact of that event occurring. You then need t...
by steveo73
Sun May 17, 2020 5:39 pm
Forum: Health Questions
Topic: COVID-19
Replies: 3447
Views: 387112

Re: COVID-19

Third, and worst or saddest. Laymen and experts have come to have an odd relationship over the past several decades. On one hand laymen expect experts to have precise answers (while in reality experts strive for accurate answers) but on the other hand, laymen like to override any advice with their ...