Search found 120 matches

by RobBennett
Thu Jan 06, 2011 6:34 pm
Forum: Introduce Yourself
Topic: What's your actual age and sex?
Replies: 104
Views: 9480

I'm a 54-year old male. If I play my cards right, I think I might have a chance of making it to 55.
Rob

by RobBennett
Thu Jan 06, 2011 6:27 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: [Disturbing]NYTimes: Investment returns depend largely on when you start and end
Replies: 20
Views: 2073

<r>"Rob, how do you predict when returns will be above or below the average?"<br/> I use a calculator at my web site called The Stock-Return Predictor, DragonCar. The calculator runs a regression analysis of the historical stock-return data to reveal the most likely annualized 10-year return for the...
by RobBennett
Thu Jan 06, 2011 3:52 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: [Disturbing]NYTimes: Investment returns depend largely on when you start and end
Replies: 20
Views: 2073

<t>I encourage you to think this through a bit, Novice. I understand where you are coming from in thinking on first impression that this is bad news. I have been studying this sort of data for nine years now and have come to the conclusion that this is really wonderful, wonderful, wonderful news.<br...
by RobBennett
Mon Dec 20, 2010 12:25 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Where is the DOW going?
Replies: 23
Views: 2584

<t>I believe that we will see another crash within four years or so.<br/> The reason is that every time in history when valuations have gone to double fair value, they have fallen to one-half fair value in the following years. Bull markets cause so much economic destruction (by first leading people ...
by RobBennett
Thu Dec 16, 2010 2:10 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Investment Education Resources: Point me in the right direction
Replies: 20
Views: 1656

<r>Timmy:<br/> I recommend Valuation-Informed Indexing. It is a combination of the ideas of Vanguard Founder John Bogle (who I view as a genius who made one mistake that has caused more human misery that any earlier mistake made in the history of personal finance) and Yale Professor Robert Shiller (...
by RobBennett
Thu Dec 02, 2010 6:57 pm
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: All this talk about early retirement seem a little bit narcissistic to me
Replies: 16
Views: 2189

<t>I think early retirement can be a selfish choice. And that people who choose this option for selfish reasons often rationalize doing so.<br/> I also think that the freedom that comes with early retirement can be put to good and loving and community-minded purposes. It's not really early retiremen...
by RobBennett
Mon Nov 15, 2010 7:45 pm
Forum: ERE Journals
Topic: Early Retirement and the End of the World as We Know it
Replies: 42
Views: 4328

<t>My take is a bit more optimistic than most of the ones I see in the thread.<br/> I don't rule out the possibility that everything could go down.<br/> But I believe that we have huge potential to bring about the greatest period of economic and cultural growth we have ever seen. We need to work up ...
by RobBennett
Mon Nov 01, 2010 5:03 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Where is the DOW going?
Replies: 23
Views: 2584

<t>I believe that the DOW will over the next few years be falling to roughly one-third where it is today in inflation-adjusted terms. The reason is that stocks have throughout history always followed a pattern of dropping to one-half fair value in the years following a time when they went to two tim...
by RobBennett
Wed Oct 27, 2010 11:18 am
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: What is your Preferred Investing Method
Replies: 28
Views: 2319

<t>"did you not get into stocks during the extremes lows in spring 2009? "<br/> It's not really right to refer to those prices as "low," PhotoGuy. They were low RELATIVE to what we saw from 1996 through 2008. But the lowest we hit was a P/E10 of 12. The fair-value P/E10 is 14 or 15. So those prices ...
by RobBennett
Tue Oct 26, 2010 4:23 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: What is your Preferred Investing Method
Replies: 28
Views: 2319

<t>I'm a Valuation-Informed Indexer. That means that i invest primarily in broad U.S. index funds but that I adjust my stock allocation in response to dramatic swings in valuations. The money not in stocks goes into super-safe asset classes like TIPs and IBonds.<br/> I've been at zero stocks since t...
by RobBennett
Wed Oct 13, 2010 11:36 am
Forum: ERE Book/Blog/Forum
Topic: Writing another ERE book?
Replies: 19
Views: 2973

<t>My thought is that you should let the reactions to this book be your guide as to what to write about next. It might be that you will find that some reactions will interest you in an exploration of aspects of the question that at earlier times you didn't see as being that important.<br/> I persona...
by RobBennett
Mon Oct 04, 2010 11:27 am
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: ERE with kids
Replies: 24
Views: 2067

<t>Having kids is a minus financially. Sometimes, though, it can also be a plus. If you're lucky, the plus effect can counter much of the minus effect. I think it is easy to lose sight of this because it is harder to show it in dollars-and-cents terms.<br/> There was a fellow I knew in law school wh...
by RobBennett
Mon Oct 04, 2010 11:11 am
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: The Dark Ages Are Already Here???
Replies: 40
Views: 3833

<t>"Shouldn't teaching then be done in person???? Surely stats must show that actually talking to somebody in person makes learning much richer??"<br/> My thought is that the best education would be done in person. But that's also the most expensive form of education. A great teacher can only intera...
by RobBennett
Sun Oct 03, 2010 7:31 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Unconventional wisdom becoming conventional?
Replies: 2
Views: 505

<t>I take a middle position.<br/> There is an important sense in which indexing has been oversold. Indexers have been told that they will do better than stock pickers. I don't buy it. I think that effective stock pickers are always going to do better.<br/> The other side of the story (in my view!) i...
by RobBennett
Sun Oct 03, 2010 6:22 pm
Forum: Money Questions
Topic: Is Efficient Market a Theory, Hypothesis, Fact, Law or Notion??
Replies: 21
Views: 1687

<t>Thanks for your feedback, Photoguy.<br/> You are of course correct that there is a risk that the stock market may go to zero. That's indeed a risk. But it is a risk that is equally present at all times if you are a long-term investor. The risk that everything would go to zero was present in 1999 ...
by RobBennett
Sun Oct 03, 2010 6:01 pm
Forum: Politics, and other eternal disagreements
Topic: All the facts for evolution
Replies: 61
Views: 6385

<t>"I think how the Catholic faith has adopted evolution to be insane"<br/> I am a Catholic. My understanding is that Catholics are permitted to believe in evolution or not, as they see fit; there is no Church dogma on this question. A Catholic must believe that God created man. But there is no dogm...
by RobBennett
Sun Oct 03, 2010 5:41 pm
Forum: Politics, and other eternal disagreements
Topic: All the facts for evolution
Replies: 61
Views: 6385

<t>"It wouldn't bother me one bit if a public school elementary teacher was fired for teaching intelligent design to impressionable children, not one bit. It incredibly bothers me that people would be fired for citing research in a paper or something else."<br/> Thanks for your response, Alex. I app...
by RobBennett
Sun Oct 03, 2010 5:38 pm
Forum: Lifestyle Questions
Topic: The Dark Ages Are Already Here???
Replies: 40
Views: 3833

<t>"I don't actually think Google or YouTube or most "internet inventions" are particularly major inventions. Buying a $2000 computer every 2 years + a $50/month internet connection so you don't have to maintain a home reference library at a few hundred dollars per month... "<br/> I see the internet...
by RobBennett
Sun Oct 03, 2010 12:41 am
Forum: Politics, and other eternal disagreements
Topic: All the facts for evolution
Replies: 61
Views: 6385

<t>"I have, at times, felt the tug of Providence"<br/> And I at times feel the tug the other way, Zev. I believe that just about everyone feels at least a tiny tug in both directions. <br/> "More moving, to me, are good works performed by those without faith."<br/> Maybe they evidence their "belief"...
by RobBennett
Sun Oct 03, 2010 12:05 am
Forum: Politics, and other eternal disagreements
Topic: All the facts for evolution
Replies: 61
Views: 6385

<t>"I've seen examples of Christians becoming atheists or at least agnostic once they got sufficiently educated about religion to see their own religion in a wider context."<br/> I have heard about many such cases, Jacob.<br/> But I have also heard about cases of scientists who have become religious...