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When Tim Ferriss interviewed Peter Thiel, he asked why cant you accomplish your 10yr goal in the next six months?

This sort of talk sells a lot of books, but I'm curious how realistic it is. Thiel and Ferriss were both objectively successful at a young age.
But their stories appeal to older, less accomplished people who feel trapped in a rut.

Have you or anyone you know ever dramatically changed your life trajectory?

Any lifelong couch potatoes who become bodybuilders after 30? (Not former high school athletes who get a beer gut and then shape up again.)

Any cubical jockeys who quit, turn it all around, and achieve fabulous wealth?

Alternatively, what goals do you have that could or could not be accelerated 20x ?

I had a female highschool classmate be 5' 4" and 180 turn bodybuilder in college.

A college professor was a C student until he became interested in particle physics as a college sophomore.

A guy that went into the military told me it "tought him how to focus". Went from metal/pothead to an A+ electrical engineer. ( Top ten in his class at Michigan Tech. )

A co-worker lost 90lbs in 18 months. Might quit an insurance desk job to be a trainer.

http://www.businessinsider.com/24-peopl ... al-icons-1


Some examples from the above link:

• Taikichiro Mori was an academic who became a real-estate investor at age 51 when he founded Mori Building Company. His brilliant investments made him the richest man in the world in 1992, when he had a net worth of $13 billion.
• Donald Fisher was 40 and had no experience in retail when he and his wife, Doris, opened the first Gap store in San Francisco in 1969. The Gap's clothes quickly became fashionable, and today the company is one of the world's largest clothing chains.

Most people no, only a very small minority will do so.

No. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZSobH1wiiM

Sample a group of people at a single point in time, e.g. at age 10, and then resample again years later, e.g. at age 40.

I bet most people trying that with their class mates or other people they know/knew reasonably well would be able to connect the age-10 profiles to the age-40 year profiles with a very small error rate. If you're allowed to sample again at ages 20 and 30 giving you three data points to make the prediction, I bet the error rate becomes practically non-existent.

If I run this exercise, there's only one person who proved to be an exception. I think the law of ergodicity (see ERE book) holds pretty strongly and that the variance is low.

I also think that the more specific outcome's in anyone's life is determined by just a few (3-5) major life-decisions. These life decisions would have consequences down the road and sometimes they can compound. This means when the law of ergodicity is broken in the rare case, then it creates very strong outliers. For example ... some guy decides to throw all his effort behind his college-friend's online product and it happens to be a $$$$-success. All that $$$$ then unlocks other opportunities .. and it's the combination of those opportunities that makes the person look like a genius; whereas in reality, all the subsequent achievements are mostly contingent on the first break-trough.

So Jacob is in the "no" camp. Most successful people show some promise early on. Most unsuccessful people don't.

Anecdotally, it seems significant that these stories gain attention because they're so rare.

userqname wrote:...have you or anyone you know ever dramatically changed your life trajectory?
...

Was carpenter. Now holds a Masters of Nanoscience. Does that count?

I can function well in very different environments. It's something I need to remind myself when I'm scared to do new things. So the change from craft to academia seems abrupt on the surface, but my underlying persona is still pretty much the same as it has been since my late teens.

yes, but more like rivers change. it takes years or decades, it's hard to see from up close, and is usually driven by external forces.

brute likes to think of human change like the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus. over the years, almost all parts of the human body, including the synapses, are rebuilt. so it could be said that humans never "change", but that after decades, they're not the "same".

+1 to Brute.

Watch "28-up" and/or the sequels. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Up_Series

@userqname - "Successful" is a matter of perspective. I don't think "success" is a very useful measure to relate to "promising" because they both depend on perspective. Rather, that some outcomes are obvious in hindsight to the degree that they are also clear in foresight if not in degree than at least in kind.

For example, success as commonly defined in a centralized mass-market culture means being either being rich, powerful, or famous ... but it seldomly refers to being happy, healthy, decent, intelligent, insightful, laid (as in getting), just, loving, dependable, well-read, independent, creative, funny, ... or something else. In fact, anyone who specializes in any one of them might be rather deficient in some of the others. OTOH, being successful in one might also drag other factors along.

What I'm saying is that one sees signs of the eventual outcome very very early on---between ages 5 or 10 or even earlier. Someone demonstrating a combination of being decent, just, and dependable at age 10 is still going to have those qualities decades later. Whether such procilivities manifest as something society deems a "success" rewarding it with fame, money, or power, is an entirely different matter. For example, that combo could result in anything from rebel to storm trooper... but I think [it] would fall within the general domain of those qualities. Anyone where those particular qualities dominate would be unlikely to turn into an artist, a politician, or a long-term unemployed.

George the original one wrote:+1 to Brute.

Watch "28-up" and/or the sequels. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Up_Series

Yeah, I would highly recommend that series. They get much more interesting and nuance actually in the last two (49-up and 56-up).

The answer is "some do and some don't." And its highly related to the System 1/System 2 model of Kahneman & Tversky. System 1 thinkers don't change and either reflect their cultures or some mirror image/opposite of them. They latch onto a narrative and a theory of causation and stick with them. Then adhere to the false virtue of consistency for consistency's sake.

System 2s might end up anywhere. And have no resemblence to themselves of decades past.

I basically agree with Jacobs post. I think success should be an individual assessment rather than conforming to society's assessment. In stating that I feel that there are certain things that are unacceptable to success which consist of things like stealing, murder etc.

I'm not sure that the way someone is though between 5 to 10 is completely how they will grow into an adult. I think people can change for the better. I don't believe in the rapid change approach or scamming approach. I think Tim Ferriss probably ticks both of these boxes. I read and really liked a couple of his books but my life philosophy is completely different from his. I do believe in slow gradual change or maybe better put slow consistent action that pays off over the longer term.

I am going to say yes, but it takes a catalyst. In many world cultures, there are rituals that provide the catalyst to change from child to adult. It seems to be more important for men than women, since that catalyst for women is frequently fulfilled by childbirth.

There is no reliable ritual for boys to become men in our society. Some experience the change in boot camp? Some, going far away to college on their own? But some avoid the uncomfortable transition their whole lives?

userqname said: Alternatively, what goals do you have that could or could not be accelerated 20x ?

Almost by definition, my 7 year permaculture project can not be accelerated 20X, although I am somewhat tempted. For instance, I could rent or buy more motor-driven equipment and tools, or I could buy more trees that are near maturity, or I could buy landscape fabric in bulk instead of scavenging cardboard boxes and wood chips. OTOH, the 7 years is somewhat arbitrary and simply pinned to a fanciful notion about 7 years being a good interval for "growing a new skin." Because I am extremely easily distracted, for me part of the challenge is simply attempting to maintain (or more like keep returning to the same main path even though I run off in circles down all sorts of side paths) my primary focus for a WHOLE 7 YEARS!!!

Farm-or said: there are rituals that provide the catalyst to change from child to adult. It seems to be more important for men than women, since that catalyst for women is frequently fulfilled by childbirth.

I clearly remember the moment when I realized that I was an adult. I was pregnant, but still in college, so my medical insurance was provided by my government-employee father's plan, but the plan would not provide coverage for the baby once he was born. So, I spent an entire day ascertaining that it was impossible to purchase solo medical coverage for somebody who was not yet born. So, I guess I suddenly came to the conclusion that there wasn't some vast top stack of competence somewhere above me I could rely on.

Another major life event that most people eventually experience that can be a catalyst for change is death of parent. Of course, if you are 65 by the time your late 80s parents finally die off, maybe it isn't as life-altering. Also, I have know some individuals who went right from immature dependence on parents to immature dependence on spouse or even children. Sometimes practical or financial dependence is correlative with emotional dependence, other times not. I knew a woman who was a homemaker her entire life until her husband left her for a younger woman in late mid-life. She went out the next week and got a secretarial job at a local utility, and otherwise carried on with her life as usual pretty much unperturbed, while her ex-husband never completely recovered from feeling guilty for leaving her. People are funny.

Have you or anyone you know ever dramatically changed your life trajectory?

I know a couple of people who are former drug addicts and alcoholics. Major life trajectory change.

I know a guy who was injured and told he would never walk again. He walks now, with canes, but he walks.

But for each of those success stories, there are a lot of people who didn't walk again (likely thru no fault of their own) or who die of drug or alcohol addiction.

I have a second cousin who lived in a one-horse town in West Virginia. He lost his job--was in his 20's at the time--and my mother invited him to come stay with her for a while in Atlanta, which was a total boom town in the late 80's and early 90's. He declined, because he just "couldn't leave home." I think he's pretty much existed on short term jobs, food stamps and disability checks ever since. That one thing--a free, safe place to stay in a city full of opportunity--had the potential to change his life, but he declined to take it. Sometimes we recognize those opportunities when they come, sometimes we recognize them in retrospect ("I should have...."), and I think for some people like my relative, they just never see them at all.

Yes!

The Up Series show that general nature is somewhat fixed by pre-adolescence but it can be constrained by the culture they live in.

1) The degree to which that is fixed varies from person to person. Some people's nature is more sticky or fixed than others.
2) One of the elements of that nature is the ability to change. Some people's nature makes them more open to changes of all sorts.
3) Some cultures are less permissive of digressions of social norms than others and the degree of social enforcement varies.

Those who are good at change in a culture that permits change tend to change a lot throughout their life. Those who are not do not. People tend to become more fixed (less changeable) as they age unless they practice changing.

Regarding accelerating change 20 fold, there are a number of components to change. Once all of them are in place then change can happen like a dam breaking. Can happen. Fear will often hold back the dam.

Getting those components in place can be challenging. Skills must be acquired. Resources accumulated. A rough outline of a plan must be in place. If the change will affect others then they must be considered. There are often limitations to change. It takes time to sell a house or get a certification or reach goals in the progression. You can't wake up tomorrow and decide to run a six minute mile. You've got to work toward it.

So, yes it is possible to change. Change can be practiced and we can get better at it. The ability (or inability) to change can be contagious and we can surround ourselves with others who encourage (or discourage) it.

EdithKeeler wrote: I have a second cousin who lived in a one-horse town in West Virginia. He lost his job--was in his 20's at the time--and my mother invited him to come stay with her for a while in Atlanta, which was a total boom town in the late 80's and early 90's. He declined, because he just "couldn't leave home." I think he's pretty much existed on short term jobs, food stamps and disability checks ever since. That one thing--a free, safe place to stay in a city full of opportunity--had the potential to change his life, but he declined to take it. Sometimes we recognize those opportunities when they come, sometimes we recognize them in retrospect ("I should have...."), and I think for some people like my relative, they just never see them at all.

So he decided money wasn't the most important thing for him, isn't that what most of us here are doing?

@ego Great point.

As a going away gift to all employees after a MA, we got to attend a full day event called "play to win". It entailed numerous apparatus in the forest, teamwork and encouraging each other to overcome the obstacles. It was meant to be an analogy to overcoming fear in life, so that you can change, evolve and progress.

As you have stated, some have it and some don't. Some can get it, and some don't.

The very fact that you are willing to put yourself in a position of answering this question means you believe you are the arbiter of what change is and what success is. That's pretty bold.

To the drug addict, one day clean is success.

To you, retiring early is success.

To the missionary, a conversion is success.

The answer is clear, do people change? Yes and no, both as a hypothetical proposition and within the existential unit of each person.