Tom Young's first journal

[Fish]

Shared an extra-long embrace with DW this morning, seems like a good habit. Also, reading your journal was one thing that helped me get over my fear or dread of aging. It is remarkable that you are able to maintain an appreciation for the memories you have and excitement at the days still to come. Above all your writing exudes a sense of inner calm and peace that I hope to achieve one day.

If I may ask what do you blog about?

[Frugalchicos]

Tom Young, you are my freakin hero!!

I just read your whole journal and I feel like driving all the way to Peru and listen to all your stories. I really admire how you guys lived your life. You can rest assure you can sleep more than 3 hours if you think about how successful and connected with society, your partner and the world you lived your life.

I wish you a wonderful life ahead. I don't think you needed international travels to tell stories, you already lived the best story you can tell to anyone.

All the best

[Tom Young]

Hi guys...
Going through a new change. Away from most of the "money" oriented discussions where I've been writing for the past 8 years... and headed to the more philosophical, theoretical thoughtful less ego centered subjects. Looking ahead... taking in the negative and searching out the possible.

In short... not the money part, important as it is. At the risk of boring you, I'm posting a piece by Charles Hugh Smith (Of Two Minds), that goes into what could to have a serious effect on our lives and fortunes, but more importantly, to the lives of our kids and their kids.

(hint) Reading just the article without going to the cited deeper analysis links, might leave a different impression... some of the graphs and statistics were (to me) eye openers.

Just imagine... it's superficially about "food".

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay19/su ... d5-19.html

I would be interested in your "take" on this subject. "Cry Wolf" or maybe something to keep track of? The short time element is the most worrisome part for me.

[jennypenny]

I definitely agree with CHS. I'm not sure we'll see a complete collapse of the food system, but I anticipate there will be years where some foods are absent from the shelves because of production issues. And some of those may never come back depending on the issue.

I also think that the efforts to increase production yield food that is prolific, attractive, and yet not very tasty* or nutritious. People may end up with plenty of food and yet still suffer from malnutrition.

*My ugly, homegrown strawberries are so much better tasting than those instagram-ready ones in the grocery store.

[jacob]

My favorite mindblowing statistic is the fact that when it comes to total land-based vertebrate biomass (2018 numbers), humans now comprise 36% of the sum total, while domesticated livestock (cows, pigs, chicken,...) is 59%, leaving the remaining wildlife (elephants, rats, beavers, pigeons, etc.) at just 5%. Note that humans are still outweighed by vira. Also note that epidemics are much more likely to run amok in populations that are weakened by starvation (or weakened by young/old age) and that epidemics are nature's favorite way of curbing monocrops to restore ecological balance.

We (humans) along with chicken, cows, and pigs are now the big monocrops, so it's easy to see where this is going(*) and how the battle is already drawn up. There's definitely some "cry wolf" involved but that's par for the game---mostly driven by insufficient education of these [complex world] issues in all but a few people (1%?). What most people seem to forget from that story is that the wolf ate the sheep at the end of the story.

(*) One example of an ongoing situation in is African swine fever in China. IIRC, they're set to destroy 150 million pigs to try to get it under control.

Recall that antibiotics have only been in general use since the 1940s (when the human population---and presumably correspondingly the livestock population----was 3x smaller than it is today at almost 8 billion). This has allowed us to move the "balance of power" far in our favor. Certainly it is not against the laws of physics that it could/would snap back as fast or faster than it moved in our favor. It's somewhat tragic that humans are using antibiotics to boost yields (both animals and pesticides/fungicides for plants) rather than keeping them in reserve for last-stands. However, this is not much different than how we're burn oil for transportation and heating instead of reserving it for the far more valuable role as chemical feedstock.

Basically, the average/majority of humans are ridiculously short-sighted but will happily cook up self-serving stories/worldviews. The current use of antibiotics will be defended based on economic theory while people worrying about it will be called alarmists and those who make personal efforts will be made fun off for not eating bacon, etc.

Like @jp said, we (at least the richer ones of the world's humans) are somewhat resilient towards these shocks because we're well-fed (unlike say East Africa where (re)starting Ebola seems to have become a recurrent affair, also ongoing.) and more importantly, because we can afford to slaughter animals and eat their fodder instead insofar we can't maintain their upkeep. <== This is the reason to be optimistic at least wrt first-world prospects as the brunt of the shortages will borne by domestic animals and poor people elsewhere.

As an example, consider what actually happened to cattle in the US in 2012 (remember the heat waves?). I bet few people noticed, but many were slaughtered because of water shortages. (The current 2019 flooding issues in the US midwest are mainly on land used for growing corn and soy ... which we usually can afford to use as livestock feed. So it's not first-world human crirical ) Ironically, this decreased meat prices. This works for us because we can afford to waste the resources to turn corn and soy into meat at a 1 to ~2 (chicken) and 4+ for pigs and cattle depending on the feed conversion ratio (ironically boosted with antibiotics). Someone who can not afford to do that (say a farmer in Syria and Egypt) will give up farming, move to the city or become a refugee, get unemployed, get angry, and start a revolution/war/criminal activities.

PS: If you like fiction, I recommend "The Sheep Look Up" by John Brunner. It has aged remarkably well.

[Tom Young]

Thanks, Jacob... for a deeper dive into what has to be the most universal, and obvious factor that affects all of the world's population. A tiny sidenote, not directly the live/die situation, but that was to me, one of the faster moving changes in how our society works.

My son works for a consulting company that deals with the desirability of food that goes between the producer and the consumer. Accordingly, he sees a rapidly changing turn from restaurants, mostly lower end, and even fast food sources... to home preparation. The only part of the restaurant business that seems to be holding up, is the higher end, specialty ones, that incorporate some type of social interaction, as... entertainment and socially desirable, destination type eating. This has led to poor prospects for new entries, with many once promising startups going under, and the closing of some major older chains.

Some factors...
The younger generation is slowly turning away from meat, to more of a vegan diet.
Prepared, or semi prepared meals are becoming more favored in working families.
Home cooks are also turning to this semi-processed packaging.
All of these changes eventually lead to job losses.
The milk industry is suffering greatly from the change in diets... less morning cereal, and less of the once most important part of the diet...and now the newer invasion of Almond based milks.
As you mentioned, environmental changes... floods, crop loss, and the attendant loss of small farms are also changing the economy.
As small farms fail, the giant corporations are taking over uncounted numbers of acres, with the ability of using high priced efficient machines that small farmers could not afford... adding to farm efficiencies, with more job losses.

The shifting economics of this change... even without the "superbug" threat, make the future of all nations a very complex puzzle. The charts in the CHS article are a guess, but in any case, one thoughtful forecast of what we may face.

Keeps life interesting.... On to bigger, more interesting things. Coming up:
Social Security and even worse... Pension (insurance ) failures. For me, a personal thing, with problems in an annuity, tied to the terrible problems with MetLife/Brighthouse Financial. Past charges of failure to pay 30,000 pension annuities, and a more recent judgement to set apart some 500 million dollars, to try and protect impending business failures and failed pension plans.
Chicago teacher pension plan projected insolvency by 2025, and the US government Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation, (PBGC) currently on track to fail by 2035.
(my opinions only)
I think jeanie and I are safe @age 83, but I worry for my 4 sons and their young families.

[Tom Young]

Update:
Some real numbers. Net worth, outgo and income @ age 84.
Net Worth: about 1/2M
Outgo: 45K... Fallback about 40K
Income... Updated:
Soc. Sec. (net)..........24K
IBonds ann. interest...12K
Annuity ann.............15K
Misc small stocks.........3K
______________________
Total...................... 54K

Both jeanie and I have Long Term Care policies.

While no guarantees, we feel safe. A good feeling.

[Jason]

While no guarantees, we feel safe. A good feeling.

As we get older, this is the deep aspiration I have. To live simply and be safe. Quiet and dignified. And being that we have an equivalent net worth (at least until April 15), you are an aspirational role model.

God bless you and your bride.

[Lemur]

Perhaps the eldest member on the boards? Maybe this will ping an email notification. I'm curious how Tom Young is doing in COVID-19 times. Hope the Young's are safe and healthy.