Gambling anyone ??

irukandjisting · Post by **irukandjisting** » Fri Jul 27, 2012 12:20 am

Does anyone gamble as part of their ERE??? or for fun??
Have read that some have retired to gamble part/full time
Just curious...

Ego · Post by **Ego** » Fri Jul 27, 2012 1:34 am

We can probably all agree that the lottery is a tax on stupidity. Governments can afford to be amateurs in their manipulation of the gambler thanks to their monopolies.
Casinos are the pros. The only way to win over the long haul is to cheat, to be an insider* or be the house.
* http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc ... city/8900/

secretwealth · Post by **secretwealth** » Fri Jul 27, 2012 1:41 am

But sometimes--just sometimes--you beat the house. It is dependent on luck and unlikely, but betting on an unlikely event is what Nassim Taleb does, and he seems to be popular on this forum.
I don't gamble anymore, but I used to. It's funny, but not exactly great for ERE, unless you are very lucky. I think a much better gamble is to plan for higher returns and a higher SWR than the recommended 3-4%. I'm doing that.

jennypenny · Post by **jennypenny** » Fri Jul 27, 2012 1:54 am

If you're very good at math, and have a lot of self-control, you can routinely beat the house. I'm not sure I'd want to depend on it to pay the mortgage,* but the comps are very nice. It's a fun way to get your travel/wine/dine fix for almost nothing.
*The problem with going too frequently and trying to earn a living is that the house will pay more attention to you if you do. If you're using math skills to win, they will shut you down.

akratic · Post by **akratic** » Fri Jul 27, 2012 1:56 am

This has been covered well before. Skim this old thread for the posts by Josh and RightClawSouth (and try not to get sidetracked by the people disagreeing with them).

Chad · Post by **Chad** » Fri Jul 27, 2012 2:05 am

I used to play hold'em a lot. Ended up positive the majority of the time and over all. Probability mixed with some psychology. Too many good players now make it harder to be profitable.

Ego · Post by **Ego** » Fri Jul 27, 2012 2:09 am

"But sometimes--just sometimes--you beat the house."
That's true. Selective memory allows long-term players to remember the elation of the win more clearly than the dejection of the frequent loses.
Taleb does bet on unlikely events... but it is different from a fixed-house casino...
Taleb: "What causes severe mistakes is that outside the special cases of casinos and lotteries, you almost never face a single probability with a single (and known) payoff. You may face, say, a 5-percent probability of an earthquake of magnitude 3 or higher, a 2-percent probability of one of magnitude 4 or higher, and so forth. The same with wars: You have a risk of different levels of damage, each with a different probability. "What is the probability of war?" is a meaningless question for risk assessment."

secretwealth · Post by **secretwealth** » Fri Jul 27, 2012 2:16 am

Hold 'Em has a substantial skill component, which means it's slightly less gambling than something like Roulette. Counting cards at Blackjack is another case of not-really-gambling; a good card-counter brings the house advantage to near nil or sometimes negative, so it is a real option.
But we're not talking about gambling anymore--we're talking about applying a skill to take advantage of a market vulnerability, like extreme couponing or planning shopping around loss leaders.
Also, most casinos in Las Vegas won't kick you out for counting cards unless you're making thousands and thousands in a night and you're obviously counting cards. If you keep it to a few hundred and walk away--and don't go every day at the same time--you should be okay.

Dragline · Post by **Dragline** » Fri Jul 27, 2012 4:31 am

I love gambling for entertainment. But that's all it is.

LiquidSapphire · Post by **LiquidSapphire** » Fri Jul 27, 2012 2:24 pm

My dad is semi-retired and he plays Hold 'em with a bunch of acquaintances. He always seems to be making money, probably more than his semi-retired job. When I ask him about just gambling full time, he claims it would be too exhausting. It basically becomes a math exercise... knowing the odds certain cards show up, knowing how much is in the pot, knowing your opponents, betting accordingly. They're always talking about odds and pot odds on those Poker TV shows and this is why.

Chad · Post by **Chad** » Fri Jul 27, 2012 2:47 pm

Professional poker playing is tough, because it got so popular. Before the big increase in populartiy there was a larger disparity in skill among professionals. I think it's been twenty years since someone won multiple world championships of poker. It's almost always the same 50 people at the end, but it seems like luck is the deciding factor after that.
I would actually track the time and day of the week that I won, and it turned out I won more during the day. I guess the better players had to work, as my winnings would stop to drop late afternoon through evening.

JohnnyH · Post by **JohnnyH** » Sat Jul 28, 2012 2:59 am

lol, perhaps the most uncomfortable "vacation" I can recall was in Vegas. It felt like a constant struggle to not lose a disproportionate amount of money on rigged games people consider fun for some reason.
If you're logical you can hang out and play Texas hold em, but even that has a house cut (3-10%?).

Mirwen · Post by **Mirwen** » Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:23 am

I live in Vegas and personally know professional gamblers. Generally they are poker and blackjack players. One guy teaches at UNLV for fun (physics) because he's already retired in his 30s from gambling. Basically if you have excellent math skills, concentration, psychology, self control, and memory, you can make money. Few people have all these skills at the same time. Being too greedy in the casinos will get you kicked out quick. However making a few hundred at a different casino every weekend could last a long time. I can't do it because I'm not very good a reading people and I'm too expressive (so they can read me).

dot_com_vet · Post by **dot_com_vet** » Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:57 am

This American Life, show 466 is extremely informative on this topic:
http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-a ... /blackjack
Personally, I think a career is a better way to make a living.