Jacob's other journal

Where are you and where are you going?
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J_
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Post by J_ »

An sich I don't like travel also not so much. But when I go, I combine. We know you have lived in Switzerland, but have you been in the beautiful museums of Basel and Zurich? And made trips by train through snowy hills/mountains? Last winter I did, and stayed at youth hostels, all in walking distance of the train stations of Basel and Zurich. Seeing Tinguelly in frozen ponds... And in Zurich you have the shop of lost properties maintained by the Swiss railways.

Is that an idea?


jacob
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Post by jacob »

New blog post: http://earlyretirementextreme.com/updat ... jects.html
We're running out of space to build new furniture---we have everything we need/can have. I think I'll take to building wood toys for a while to use up some scrap wood. After that I think I'll start replacing the pine furniture with better wood.
I've settled into doing 20 minutes on the trainer a few times per week. At 19-20mph average speed, that routine burns a lot of fat.
My rating on chesstactics has increased to 1300. Not much to brag about. In real games I still make annoying blunders.
The job is good. I like the excitement that comes with stuff that's working. Sometimes I complain about being bored on weekends because they're not as stimulating.


Dragline
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Post by Dragline »

Cheers and Happy New Year!


jacob
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Post by jacob »

The plan for 2013 is/seems to to put all work income into savings in order to buy a house. ---And hope that the Chicago real estate market doesn't rebound in the mean time. There's a significant seasonal component to RE prices where it's best to buy during winter. Despite low-low interest rates(*), I'm not too keen on going THAT way. I'm probably just too cheap to pay various fees.
(*) Although the highly academic heads of the Fed seems to be beginning to notice that their pumping is creating another bubble in commodities and long-bonds. Who would have thunk it? Shortly, they'll be saying it came as a complete surprise. As usual.
Why save? Because I'm having a hard time just selling the portfolio I've spent years optimizing (why dump it when it's still good value?). In that regard I envy those who own "faceless" funds---they can just be sold at will.
DW jumped through the hoops for a well-known tax preparation company and is now working part-time practically full time doing returns along with going to school for the rest of the time.
Apparently there's a significant subculture of taxpreparers who work four months of the year and then do nothing for the rest of the year. This might be an option.
It looks like we'll stay in the midwest for at least a year or more. DW is finishing school + starting work. My work is still great. Hence the house-buying desires.
In that regard, irrationally, we'd like to buy something fancy on one of the metra lines, but rationally it's probably better to buy something boring on one of the L (subway) lines. The metra runs on a strict time-schedule while the L runs all the time. The commute times are actually similar. So far we're looking mostly at Evanston, IL, for those who may care.


George the original one
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Post by George the original one »

> There's a significant seasonal component to

> RE prices where it's best to buy during winter.
In general this is true. The corollary is that the nicest properties are only on the market during the peak price season of late spring/early summer. Usually not a problem if you're shopping for a bargain property...


J_
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Post by J_ »

Interestings plans Jacob.

For one time be not so rational and buy a fancy home, and not a boring one!

Although you predict an economic winter, there will come sometime a summer again. And then if you want to sell again the fancy one will win.

Evanston is close enough tp the big lake if you want start sailing again, you will undoubtly look for a place where you can reach a harbour by foot or bicycle!

And: be flexible if you find a good house, don't wait! For me it seems that it is easier to find good stocks again than to find a just fitting house.

Good luck for you and DW.


tylerrr
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Post by tylerrr »

Jacob, why do you want a house? It seems really out of character for the author of ERE. I'm not criticizing, I'm just saying I wouldn't want to take care of so much square feet when it's just me and a spouse.
I'm assuming you don't want a large house, which means more expense and upkeep....
I guess you are probably viewing it as an investment that you can eventually sell. But as far as practicality, I don't like the idea of buying a house unless it's small and buying it in cash......That's just me.


secretwealth
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Post by secretwealth »

@Jacob: I don't know the Chicago market but I say go for it. No other asset class seems as appealing as real estate. Plus, since you're already very exposed to stocks, I think real estate would diversify your income stream. Bear in mind that you are doubly exposed to stocks: in your personal portfolio and in your job. Hedging with some property would be a wise financial move.
As for whether to buy a cheap or expensive house--the appreciation potential is an important consideration. Here in NYC, year-over-year returns on luxury property has significantly outpaced low-end real estate, which has actually fallen in value in all boroughs over the past couple years. Again, I don't know how Chicago is, but if this income disparity/gravity of wealth to the top income earners trend continues, the value of a $500k house will go up much more than the value of a $100k house.


dragoncar
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Post by dragoncar »

I'm surprised you are saving money and "hoping" that the RE market doesn't rebound while you save. I always thought one of the benefits of ERE was that you always had capital to deploy when the right opportunity came along. If you find an extraordinary deal on a house, I hope you can rationally compare the expected return vs. your worst portfolio holding.


jacob
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Post by jacob »

@tylerr - Because it's significantly cheaper. If we bought a house, our combined expenses would drop to under $10k. They might even go under $6k for two people. Also, we're not looking at more than 1000sqft/1-2bd/1bath houses. In addition there are some thing I could do on my own land which I can't do in an apartment. (Renting a house would be too expensive around here.). In particular, I would like to become competent in metal work which means light foundry work and welding. And I would like to grow a garden again.
@secretwealth - Diversifying out of paper is a big part of the reason! Another reason is learning home-repair skills. Capital appreciation is not a big issue. I think it could take many years for the RE market to recover. Also, importantly, housing in Chicago is undervalued compared to renting.
@dragoncar - I technically do have the capital. However, it would trigger some capital gains taxes. In other words, an ordered transition would be preferable to just hitting the sell-button now that the choice is there. I also find that inertia is quite helpful to avoiding investment losses.


KevinW
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Post by KevinW »

Maybe hedge a little against a RE rally by going long on residential REIT futures, or similar?


secretwealth
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Post by secretwealth »

I find the psychological feeling of having a place to live that no one can take away from you much more satisfying than a strong return on paper holdings.


My_Brain_Gets_Itchy
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Post by My_Brain_Gets_Itchy »

I agree with secretwealth 100% on this one.
In many ways, I see ERE as a process of growing/strengthening your autonomy.
However, no matter how autonomous I wanted to try and be when I was renting, a landlord being able to come into my home and have a certain power over me, always seemed to compromise my autonomy.


JohnnyH
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Post by JohnnyH »

These seem close to the area you are looking for:

http://www.williamsauction.com/property ... t-2/334030

http://www.williamsauction.com/property ... 311/334200

https://www.hudsonandmarshall.com/Prope ... 90731.aspx
Luxury property returns during the "recovery" have outperformed, but the risk is higher. There where periods of months were not 1 luxury property sold in entire states post crash... Also, tax risk is higher on desirable or luxury property (I've seen 1000%+ increases during one insane 10 yr appraisal update).
Also, if you're staying long enough to justify the associated costs of opening a mortgage its a good hedge against potentially falling real wages.


tylerrr
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Post by tylerrr »

@Jacob,
o.k. yeah, a house that small I'm sure would be very inexpensive so you can probably buy it outright in cash and even rent it to people in the future if you wanted to....


tylerrr
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Post by tylerrr »

@Jacob,
o.k. yeah, a house that small I'm sure would be very inexpensive so you can probably buy it outright in cash and even rent it to people in the future if you wanted to....


jacob
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Post by jacob »

1) Recently I've been reading "Make it! Don't buy it." which is yet another one of those lost opportunity books from the 1970s. It covers woodworking, brazing, welding, and weaving for several home projects, tables, lamps, hinges, beds, chairs, carpets, curtains,... Of those, I'm only competent with wood. Mastering metal has been my plan for years. So much more reason for getting into a house.
2) Lately, work has been hectic for many many reasons. However, due to various noncompete agreements, I don't think I can say anything about it, so there.
3) The ERE forum has been giving me grief with technical issues which seem to come and go at random intervals. I don't have the time/energy to figure out how to bring it for 20% broken to 1% broken. I have the successor problem in looking for someone to administrate it.
4) I've finally reached the point of building enough storage (lately crates out of recycled bed slats, a very quick project even with hand tools, thank you once again Ikea), so the amount of clutter (=things out of place) no longer stress me out. My tolerance goes down whenever I have other things on my mind. I even have a theory for this, expressed in "new math": stuff minus organization effort < clutter tolerance.
5) The networth odometer rolled over again. It's like watching the score in a computer game although it sometimes goes down. I now have roughly 55 years worth of savings. DW+I are right at the 3% level.
6) I finally "saw the light" and gave up on facebook. After installing the FB purity plugin, which removed all the shares of cat pictures, it became empathically obvious how little is actually going on on that site beyond meme-sharing. Frankly, FB seems to be turning into myspace although I guess it depends a lot on who's active in one's network.


secretwealth
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Post by secretwealth »

I wonder if there's enough precedent to set up a mathematical model for how long a social network will devolve into memes.
Congrats on the new net worth milestone, jacob. They seem to come much faster after you get to a certain level.
Hopefully work is stimulating and enjoyable enough to offset the hectic environment.


Catanduva
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Post by Catanduva »

I don't know you, Jacob, but i use facebook just to chat with my friends. So if you use Linux, get an account, install an IRC client and Bitlbee (makes irc connect in msn, aol, yahoo, facebook and a lot of protocols). Now you can connect the facebook chat outside Facebook. No more annoying things.

I just enter Facebook to see if i got friends request.


Scott 2
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Post by Scott 2 »

Evanston is full of parent-funded college students and rich people. Not a cheap place to live IMO. Also, as long as the L goes somewhere, it has homeless people bothering you. They go away once the L goes away.
If you can let go of the "by the lake" requirement, more land can be had for the same money in Chicago's western suburbs. Clarendon hills, Westmont and Downers Grove all have stuff pretty close to the Metra. There are express trains that make the downtown commute similar to taking the L.
If you are willing to be limited to a couple trains a day, you can start looking in the far southwest burbs - joliet, lockport, etc. Even cheaper.
I did a couple years with no car in the suburbs, living right across from the train station and working downtown. To my luck, there was an express train that started at my stop, which meant it idled there with the doors open, waiting to leave. I never even had to wait outside.
If you shop for a mortgage through a broker, you ought to be able to get one for the cost of the appraisal fee. There's a broker I've used that I could refer you to. One option is to get a loan with no pre-payment penalty and pay it off over a year. Yeah, you'd end up out a few thousand dollars in interest and fees, but you could act now.


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