Early Retirement Extreme Forums

jacob wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 14, 2023 1:15 pm

Rate hike pause. But maybe more coming. (While inflation is dropping a bit, it's not dropping fast enough.)

It seems the biggest contributor to the drop in inflation is the lowered cost of energy/gas.
We would possibly see it stick after the super high prices of the past cycle out.

The resiliency of both the consumer and the stock market have really been something to behold.
It’s been at least 7 years people are predicting a major crash but aside from a couple short lived blips*, it hasn’t happened.


*luckily, I was able to take advantage of both of those

SoFi up 111% YTD. I’ve been averaging down on this stock for about 2 years now and own over 10k shares. I was down 90% at one point! I brought my average down to $8.81. I’ve some covered calls at $9, $10, and $11 this week. I plan to sell 1000 shares at higher price points on the way up using covered calls.

Crazy to see this green and I don’t trust this run. I was expecting to have to hold this one on for much longer. I’m selling in chunks only to mitigate disposition effect. Who knows how far it will run.

SoFi is now a winning stock but so is just about everything else.

Edit: Trimmed some of my position this morning. 1k shares at $9.16.

2023 half way over.

YTD:
NVDA +190%
AAPL +50%

NYSE:NVO
NASDAQ:TSLA

... will become the two largest companies in the world based on marketcap within the next decade

!RemindMe 10 years

I'm gonna buy more during the next 12 months

Quarterly revenue from obesity sales for NVO:

Q3: 4,331b DKK
Q4: 5,488b DKK
Q1: 7,842b DKK

Growing at 40%+ per quarter is insane and it's accelerating. It might actually be growing at 100% per quarter atm since some of the growth is hidden in their diabetes GLP-1 revenue.

Their new obesity medicine is working really well for people and could also be used to treat depression, gambling, etc. (other stuff affecting the dopamine center)

@thedollar

I think you're on to something here with NVO. They own Ozempic which I believe you're referring too - is really gaining steam. I wouldn't doubt if that stuff ends up becoming accepted by most insurances eventually as just a catchall drug / preventative health medicine to deal with metabolic syndrome & obesity.

Anybody have any idea what to do with the extra money you save?
I’ve been stashing most of my savings for the last 5 months into Apple’s savings account.
I figure in todays world, 4.15% yield with zero risk is a good and easy option.
I realize I could maybe get more with short term bonds, but my treasury direct account has been on hold for ages.

Long term treasuries, as has been the case for a few years now, continue to offer return free risk (why should I commit to 30 years if the yield is the same as my savings account?)

Stocks offer no equity premium (I think it’s actually negative RN).

Cash/short term treasuries, physical assets, seem to me like the best option.

Thoughts?

@seppia I have a god awful risk tolerance, but I have been doing the same. Vanguard cash plus account is 4.7% right now up to 1.5 million I think? It sweeps it into X < 8 accounts insured to 250k.

The possible downside is that rates might drop, and so that sweet ~5% return will eke out of existence in a short term saving account compared to the 30 year. It’s really a game of guessing about macroeconomics at that point. FED seems to be indicating that they are still on the raising / holding steady end of the rates things, so I doubt we are topped out for buying in to the 30 year at the best time. But again, I am a bad / low risk tolerance investor at everything except real estate, so use your own brain.

It's only since the ZIRP era that cash has burned a hole in people's hands with 100% equity being the only game in town. However, the last 10 years was likely an aberration, not a new norm. Cash is a totally legit asset. Recall the Permanent Portfolio has a 25% cash allocation and that there's a reason for that.

NVDA beat estimates and is up 9% in after hour trading cracking $500. Started the year at $143.

I'm seeing local banks offering CDs at 5.25 APR.

30 Year Treasury Rate is at 5.11%.

Lemur wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:55 pm

30 Year Treasury Rate is at 5.11%.

I started dipping my toes into BLV today.
I figure if rates go to 7% I stand to lose 30%, if they dip to 3% I gain 75%.
BOND CONVEXITY!

I can totally see this continue imploding BTW

NVDA closed at all time high yesterday $504. Earnings announcement at end of close today. Expectations are comical. Last quarter post closing gains did not gain traction and stock dipped. I did not pick up shares but did not sell either.

Lemur wrote: ↑

Fri Oct 20, 2023 2:55 pm

30 Year Treasury Rate is at 5.11%.

That would've been the (current) rates top, no?

@xmj Quite possibly

I guess I should post here so ppl know what I am doing and can laugh at me later. Will try to be more active in posting.

- last 3 months: building a large position in Solana
- putting in small bets on a smattering of other random crypto (LINK, RNDR, KAS, like too many to list really)
- last month: started buying bitcoin miners CLSK, BITF, MARA, etc it doesn't matter going to dump them all prob in Jan.
- slowly adding to uranium related positions on dips: CCJ, URNM, URNJ (been building this uranium position since 2020)
- selling: various broad market ETFs

Sad about: gold. I am almost done with this stupid boomer rock but I can't quite force myself to exit my positions.

Don’t want to sound negative but the way and the timing this is written sounds like the textbook contrarian indicator.
Just to make sure it’s clear I’m not trying to dunk on you: I am the idiot who bought a small position in sprotts uranium fund at 11 cad back in 2021, held it for a couple years and sold it in June 2023 at 17.5.
I felt like a genius for around two months.

Narrator: it’s up 52% to 26 cad since

The repeating pattern of my investing life is that my most frequent mistakes were linked to selling too early.
I would be worth around 100k more if I just held on to my Amazon stock back in 2015

Seppia wrote: ↑

Tue Dec 05, 2023 9:50 pm

Don’t want to sound negative but the way and the timing this is written sounds like the textbook contrarian indicator.
Just to make sure it’s clear I’m not trying to dunk on you: I am the idiot who bought a small position in sprotts uranium fund at 11 cad back in 2021, held it for a couple years and sold it in June 2023 at 17.5.
I felt like a genius for around two months.

Narrator: it’s up 52% to 26 cad since

The repeating pattern of my investing life is that my most frequent mistakes were linked to selling too early.
I would be worth around 100k more if I just held on to my Amazon stock back in 2015

Lol I sure hope it's not but mostly I'm just bragging because the trade is finally working and the spot price is moving. I have been in this trade for years, as I mentioned I went into the miners before the Sprott fund was launched (opened CCJ position in fall of 2020).

I think it's actually being ignored now. I still only see niche financial people talking about it.

What do you think a real top signal for uranium is, spot price stalls out and starts to dip? Jim Cramer talks about Cameco? I will def be trimming if I see that kind of stuff. I was searching and it hasn't been mentioned on CNBC in over a year but now the spot price is actually at $83 / lb and nobody seems to realize that is like a 10 year high.

Fed cuts likely in 2024. USD drops. DJIA near new record. Mag7 still rotating inside the NDAQ.

More of the same the day after.