Early Retirement Extreme Forums

First open after the election and I am up 10 bucks at the start. Wasn't expecting that.

Sorry if this is the wrong place to post this, but is anyone investing in Medical Marijuana stocks?

Well I've made some bets now..

Buy CCJ, GE, VIS, ERUS, VWO, VEA.
Sell EBAY.
closed (was short) AA.

Not large amounts, but enough to satiate the need to do something today. Still plenty on the sidelines waiting for the big one.

Emerging markets are dropping steadily, another 6-7% and ill buy some more

Infamous wrote:Sorry if this is the wrong place to post this, but is anyone investing in Medical Marijuana stocks?

Bit of a gamble I reckon, mainly because of the possibility of Republicans destroying it , with Trump and all.

@Seppia
Yeah, I have shifted my new 401k money to be heavily weighted into EM funds since the pullback started.

buy TSLA, ILF, VPL,
sell RDSA
close (was short) FB

Chad wrote:@Seppia
Yeah, I have shifted my new 401k money to be heavily weighted into EM funds since the pullback started.

Unfortunately it rebounded, and my limit order did not go through.

@bryan, can I ask you the thought process for buying tesla and selling royal Dutch?
RDSA has been my biggest holding since 2006 and I love them, I never sold once as I believe it's the best run energy company around.
Tesla, I would not touch with a 10ft pole, it's just a disaster waiting to happen in my opinion (in particular if the super shady solar city acquisition goes through)

on TSLA: mostly I've been wanting to invest in Elon for a long time now. It's recent slide feels like as good a time as any to buy in. Fundamentally they are innovating and scaling up rather nicely and it seems they have no problem with financing (and in fact have some interesting bond/carbon/energy credit synergy possibilities with the solar city acquisition). The only thing I'm a little hesitant on is Elon's desire to improve the world by keeping TSLA patents open for all to use.

on RDSA: taking my short term profit. Probably fine to keep on holding but I had bought them targeting short-term profits and am now wanting to make some contrarian trades with Trump being projected to win the election. I still own some CNQ.

Thanks for your reply Bryan.
I would be cautious with tesla, the solar city deal has massive amounts of red flags in my opinion
- musk has major stakes in both companies
- solar city is basically bankrupt: this seems like Musk (tesla owner) bailing out Musk (solar city owner) by using tesla stock
- solar city operates in a business where almost none of the players makes money
Plus
- Tesla hasn't made a dime yet, if for any reason the capital stops coming they are dead within months
- Tesla so far has met around zero deadlines it set for itself, and apparently a lot rests on them being able to meet their model 3 numbers and deadlines.

Add to all this the cult like following that this company has (I mean, how many people gave them $1000 for the privilege to own one of their vehicles sometime in the future, at an unspecified date? We are in worse than Apple territory here).

Not for me

Might be a good time to bet on higher volatility

Anyone anticipating any more big moves in the EUR - USD? Will the EUR recover a little? Fall further?

jennypenny wrote:Anyone anticipating any more big moves in the EUR - USD? Will the EUR recover a little? Fall further?

Has anyone in history ever been consistently successful in predicting currency fluctuations?
I have the impression that it's so influenced by non-forecastable events that it must be close to impossible.

@Seppia, currency market is much like any other prediction market (maybe one of the most efficient/liquid?). If you only go all-in on wagers only when you have high confidence (say 85% chance) of winning, you will still converge on broke. That's why you never use Martingale.. and why stuff like Kelly criterion got discovered, at least.

Bryan: I 100% agree.
Exchange rate for me is a random exogenous element.
I consider it when I'm buying stuff, but I don't try to profit from it at any time.
Over the long run and across many trades, it should become irrelevant (especially if one focused on large internationally connected businesses)

@Seppia - According to "expert traders", currencies is the easiest asset class to trade. Equity is the hardest. Now, before anyone signs up for a 10x leveraged account at random-scammy-offshore-broker, know that this is over the 2-5 year term.

@Jacob
Intersting.
I never studied this, would you mind Pointing me in the direction of some good reading on the subject?
Thanks a ton

Thanks!

I bought some Danone and some Engie yesterday.
Danone is a phenomenally well run company that sells yoghurt and dairy products, they recently bought the producers of Alpro (soy milk and other dairy substitutes) as a hedge against the decline in usage of dairy products (it's a recent trend).
It could fall further but long term I really like them.

Engie is French utilities, they are undergoing a big restructuring that will probably hurt them in the short term but that should position them very well for the future.
Similarly to E.on in Germany, they're making a big shift towards renewables, and it's hurting their bottom line.
Still, Engie will pay a 70c euro dividend in 2017 and 2018, and are now priced at 11.55€ per share