Cyclicals are up. Non-cyclicals are down. Overall is down. Good news is bad news. Bad news is good news.
my indicators say its about to really drop, like it did in january or last summer or maybe worse but too soon to tell. being long anything here, as 85% of stocks trade with the mkt; is a bad idea imo.
Uh huh ... One should think that people in charge should eventually get a clue that the Fed Model is inadequate in a global economy; that there's a lot of global financial misallocation to undo yet; and that consistently massaging unemployment numbers to make them look better pretty much ensures that surprises will stay negatively biased.
Received highest daily dividend sum today - 57 bucks.
I have started listening to earnings calls when judging whether to purchase. I feel you can judge a lot from the tone of voice and the overall quality/mood of the conference. Anyone else do this and feel this way?
@CM--I made a lot of money owning WMC including a special div. On an earnings call last winter, the principle players on the call couldn't answer what I thought were basic questions about hedge strategies and the reason they had avoided diversifying like NLY and AGNC. I sold then and never looked back.
update: I sold in May and went away. I sold a few weeks ago, so I lost a little upside. I'm even out of the big funds. I'm not sure where the market is going or whether I even want to be heavily invested in it anymore, so I'm sitting in stable value funds and money market accounts until I decide. I still own is SGOL--didn't want to sell that.
Was doing my periodical grading of dividend growth stocks early this morning and noted that just about all of them are suffering slower dividend growth. Couple that with low yields and it makes me glad I'm at my highest cash level since "forever", but I'd sure like to find something for income soon...
jennypenny wrote:
update: I sold in May and went away. I sold a few weeks ago, so I lost a little upside. I'm even out of the big funds. I'm not sure where the market is going or whether I even want to be heavily invested in it anymore, so I'm sitting in stable value funds and money market accounts until I decide. I still own is SGOL--didn't want to sell that.
That was probably a good idea, the current pattern of the mkt always follows with a drop of around 150 s+p points minimum, may take until august to do that; but new highs weren't coming this summer. Too soon to tell if the coming drop will develop into a greater correction.
tempted to rebalance portfolio now that Bitcoin and Gold have performed very well since last time I rebalanced. However, the scheduled day is not here yet..
so instead to scratch the itch I'll just short another stock for fun: SYMC (though my gut says it will run up for a while yet.. so just a small bet for now and probably more in a month or so)
jennypenny wrote:Did the market really rebound because that woman was shot? I'm not sure I have the stomach for this anymore.
We're 50, so I figure as long as we have at least 50x expenses in the bank. I don't need to play the market anymore. Tempting ...
I think a more positive reading might be that when she was shot, there was an outbreak of common sense and that some of the tension and anger deflated from both sides of the argument (I'm not going to glorify it with the word 'debate'). A shared understanding that people had taken it too far, perhaps, an inflection point.
$8000 down in the open... back to where I was 10 days ago. I think that's a new record for intraday loss but it wasn't as bad as I expected.
Edit: 1hr later, only down $2800.
Close edit: down $5030 (one years worth of living expenses)... I'm pleased that all of my three actively managed portfolios did better than the S&P500. I'm particularly pleased that the one that's essentially short-USD albeit indirectly (through commodities and Asia) also did better than the S&P. My fixed income and gold portfolio was positive for the day. I also note that if I account for the losses in EUR, I was actually positive for the day.
We were up $800 yesterday and then down by about the same amount today at the open. Now we are at about $500 down. Both yesterday and today were records for us.
I'm not sure how I'd feel about losing over half a year of expenses (or 1.5 in your case) in just a few minutes.
I feel like I am in the movie Trading Places ($1 bet that brexit will happen, woohoo!).
Overall my portfolio looks fine and quite bored. My play account with margin is up nicely (but nothing extraordinary like one of the specific companies coming out with a badly missed earnings).
Bought some RBS because I felt like doing something in these markets today..
Does anyone use Wolfram Alpha for investment research? I found you could look at historical P/E and it looks accurate. Some of the other numbers look questionable though.
I like to use events like Brexit to get a good idea which of my securities/portfolios are swimming naked when the tides goes out. This one was/is particularly good because it's short, strong, and very directional, so no need to mentally filter the noise (3 steps down, 2 steps up) of a regular bear market. It makes for a good and fairly transparent shock test. I run three different portfolios. Comparing to the S&P500...
Friday: over, over, over
Monday: over, over, over
Tuesday: over, over, under
Wednesday?: over, over, under
Total?: over, over, over
Dollars compared to Thursday close: under, over, over
The simple random odds of at least that many overs is only 1.9%. I mentally note whether I'm over or under for each of them almost every day. Human biases aside, if I get the impression that I'm mostly under, I change things around. In particular, had this test been mostly under, I'd be very concerned about what would happen when the big one hits the US markets.
