surprised by change and upredictability

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jacob
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Re: surprised by change and upredictability

Post by jacob »

daylen wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2024 9:53 am
Perhaps the days of creative individualism are waning somewhat, and the days of collective creation are in our purview.
This would be something that would surprise in the sense that I'm rather unprepared for it and would probably resist it for the longest time while lamenting that everything was better in the old days. I guess I'm already half-way started down this path.

The ERE forum is a collective creation---also why the "great deletion debacle" was such a destructive tragedy---but is it creative? If I think about, the main thing it has turned out that is also "new and useful in a social context" is the ERE WL table. This would have been almost impossible to construct without the forum. OTOH, I'm not sure much creative progress has been made with ERE2?! In the Sternberg book I linked above, Howard Gardner has an article that talk about how creative people gravitate towards the cities in order to find their tribe; how the internet has made it easier to find creative tribes, but also how the internet channels are too narrow for Big C creative work. As such the internet is more useful for making the connection before moving. The creative aspects of ERE2 might have to wait for ERE City? (This could also just be a generational perspective. As mentioned above, I have a foot in both internet and pre-internet. It might be more obvious how to be creative on internet-only for those who grew up with it both feet in.)

7Wannabe5
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Re: surprised by change and upredictability

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

@jacob:

I am saddened that you do not consider my LentilBaby concept to be a creative contribution to the forum. I am surprised that you do not, for example, consider basuragomi's experiments with LenTofu to be a creative contribution to the forum.

Seriously, I think there is a relationship between curiousity and creativity which is akin to sexuality and sexiness. And it is possible that the internet is short-circuiting the feedback loop. OTOH, if the level for producing an "interesting" post requires reading a collection of 40 books and 800 hours in the "laboratory" then "silo" problems are likely. For example, I was significantly under-informed on the topics of climate change, peak oil, resource depletion before joining this forum, so it was like the ice cracked open on a large new continent of reading/discussion materal for me, but now I've pretty much read/talked myself in a circle on these topics. So, although I still believe this cluster-fuck is the greatest ever challenge facing humanity, my personal curiousity on the topic has waned. IOW, I feel like I should still be extremely interested in the topic/problem, but I'm not, for roughly the same reason the sex tends to become dull after 10 years into a relationship, but the solution is never to be found in the shallow creativity of dressing up like a French Maid or, as Updike memorably expressed it, "fucking each other with assorted vegetables."

Understand, I am just throwing stuff at the wall here, but it might also be the case that "ERE City" is akin to taking the next step on the conventional Relationship Escalator. It might be like getting married just because you've now been living together for 14 years. When what would really better serve would be something like the time when I dumped a BF, expected him to be too much at loose-ends without me, but then discovered that he had completely unexpectedly joined a rock band.

Still throwing stuff at the wall, but maybe what would work better would be making the forum more like a Kaggle Competition with some outside random factors in the mix. For example, we could work together to create an alternate frugal universe website/response to Amazon/WalMart by creating DIY instructions from dumpster/nature alternatives to whatever is that day/week's top seller/deal on Amazon/WalMart.

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Re: surprised by change and upredictability

Post by jacob »

7Wannabe5 wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2024 1:29 pm
I am saddened that you do not consider my LentilBaby concept to be a creative contribution to the forum. I am surprised that you do not, for example, consider basuragomi's experiments with LenTofu to be a creative contribution to the forum.
Making tofu out of lentils or being a live-in-girlfriend may be new to the forum, but they're not new to the world. Furthermore, as far as I understand, they're individual contributions from individual forumites and not concepts that came out of a collective collaboration on the forum. I think the distinction between "imaginative" and "creative" is a good one. I also think that the definition of creative as something that is "new(*) AND useful to others" is a good one because it helps to differentiate it from the imaginative. Rather than debate whether something qualifies as creative or not, talking about how big the C is is more useful.

(*) For example, my plywood clock might be considered creative in the vernacular, but it really isn't because I was building a copy using someone else's plans and therefore only displaying craftmanship, not originality. My clock is not a creative contribution simply because it is unusual or hard to make. The Kerbal Space Controller is unique, but that too is basically taking someone else's idea and making it out of wood instead. You'll find many instances on google images that look like it. It is not that creative. The WWI flight stick is slightly more creative. It'll be difficult to find it on google images. The C is slightly bigger, but it's more engineering than originality. If you asked a random engineer to make something with the same functionality, they would very likely build something very similar. A good example would be all the furniture I've built. No plans. It all starts in my head and ends up as a finished piece. Creative? No... I'm making a standard table. It is useful, but the concept of a table is not new.

The ERE WL Table concept is not new either. It is after all named after Paul Wheaton. It is only new within the social context that is ERE/FIRE, and so that gives it some "C". It is in my opinion, the biggest C that has resulted from a collective effort on the forum. Indeed, I think it would not have been possible as an individual effort, but I might be wrong (I presume Paul Wheaton created the eco-table on his own?).
7Wannabe5 wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2024 1:29 pm
Still throwing stuff at the wall, but maybe what would work better would be making the forum more like a Kaggle Competition with some outside random factors in the mix. For example, we could work together to create an alternate frugal universe website/response to Amazon/WalMart by creating DIY instructions from dumpster/nature alternatives to whatever is that day/week's top seller/deal on Amazon/WalMart.
And this is where I wonder whether this whole "working together online" will produce anything more creative than "one person working on their own using online resources". IOW, whether web2.0 is in any way superior to web1.0 in terms of creativity?!?? I'm not convinced.

However, generative AI does bring something new to the table here. AI would presumably be able to read the entire forum and include stuff that humans have either never read or long forgotten. OTOH, so far studies have also shown that humans using AI for their creative efforts tend to produce "bland good enough"-solutions rather than "fantastic/novel"-solutions. This also creates the dangers of hurting invention if AI becomes too much of a crutch.

To bring it around: Would I be surprised if the internet turned out to make humanity far more creative than currently? Yes, I would, very!

daylen
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Re: surprised by change and upredictability

Post by daylen »

The next evolution may involve going beyond humanity into the adjacent possible of humanoids (or collaboids that take on various morphologies?). Our society of peoples or citizens develops from a very diverse collection of humans working independently or in small groups (like single cells), to a less diverse collection of humans working dependently (like a unified body), to an even more diverse collection of collaboids working independently or in small groups (like an ecosystem of bodies). Various Earthian or alien morphologies embodying entirely new ways of culturing.

Legit time travel machines or traversable wormholes across spacetime would surprise me. Non-local causality would slightly surprise me. :P

Though from another perspective every moment of experience is at least slightly surprising. Whoa, my brain just cross-hallucinated again!

7Wannabe5
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Re: surprised by change and upredictability

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

jacob wrote: being a live-in-girlfriend may be new to the forum, but they're not new to the world
Not wanting to quibble over exact level of insignificance, but the novelty would be making use of such a relationship for the purpose(s) of achieving FI and/or conserving natural resources. Also, a LentilBaby would be more likely to "fix all your stuff" rather than "break all your stuff." :lol:
And this is where I wonder whether this whole "working together online" will produce anything more creative than "one person working on their own using online resources".
Okay, I see what you mean. It would be a massive project, but one researcher alone could produce an Amazonian/Encyclopedic DIY site. However, I think the factor that I was taking into more consideration would be the randomization of the "prompts." For example, the most novel "prompt" to creativity I encountered today was a conversation with an ENFJ in which she told me that she used AI to remove anger and other emotions from her work communications. She'll initially compose an e-mail without editing her stream of consciousness which might include something like "Listen up you micromanaging fucking asshole..." and thne asks AI to convey the same message in a professional manner. So, then I immediately wondered if AI could perform the same/opposite task for somebody who was on other end of spectrum. For example, curt note to significant other could be rendered "warm" by AI, but, of course, somebody else already had this thought.

https://www.entrepreneur.com/science-te ... ess/464813

OTOH, there is something about organization or even just perspective itself that can lend novelty or usefulness. Over-used example would be that Henry Ford didn't invent the car, and he didn't really invent the assembly line, but he did invent the car production assembly line. The Forum is sort of like a 19th century car factory in which each frugal lifestyle is custom-built. What would an internet-based frugal-lifestyle production assembly line look like? One of the most valuable aspects of the Amazon organization was its development of the ASIN system as an extension of the ISBN and UPC systems. IOW, you don't necessarily need new ideas, but just a new way to manage an inventory of ideas in order to make them more accessible than is currently available on the internet.

Or maybe the spur to frugal creativity needed is a new challenge beyond "Buy Nothing" or even "Make Everything." ? Dunno. I do know that going beyond sometimes requires at least temporarily dropping identity/paradigm. IOW, identifying with being frugal may be a block to creativity.

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Re: surprised by change and upredictability

Post by xmj »

ffj wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2024 9:13 am
Interesting. I'm old enough now to have witnessed a lot of change in my 55 years on this planet. Some of it predictable, some not so much.

The personal computer and the internet changed everything forever for everyone. The power of this change is immense and if you sit back and think about it no one or system has escaped its influence. Even the people that hate its clutches are still having their actions being dictated. Nobody has a choice to opt out completely.

Same with privacy, it doesn't exist anymore. You are being surveilled constantly, whether through the NSA, traffic cams, store security, trail cameras, or your neighbors Ring system. Your "private" property is surveilled through Google maps. Your purchases and non-purchases are monitored, your behavior is being noted somewhere. Your curious neighbors have a slew of devices to record you against your wishes, whether through a cell phone, security system, or other devices. And your visits will be noted on platforms such as Facebook without your knowledge or consent along with your photo that you also didn't give consent to take. Also, your personal information is on the internet including your past and current address, your past job titles, phone number, and helpful suggestions as to who your relatives may be as part of the "free" package. Even having the curiosity of your ancestry has yielded some unpleasant and invasive results.

When I was growing up your local news came on at 6 pm and the evening news started at 630pm. You trusted both sources explicitly. And if you really wanted to be well-rounded you also watched 60 Minutes once a week. Again, the internet has exposed and hoaxed every news source especially since the rise of Trump. Most people today are skeptical of the "news". It is too easy to see where you have been duped.

Same with religion. Gone are the days where the only information one received about their religion was from the church. Or never knowing your religions' dirty little secrets. I've noticed a huge shift away from organized religion in my lifetime and a shift in tactics from the ones still trying to attract followers. Rock music at a church service? Charismatic bros leading the service? Even the poor Jehovah Witnesses seem to have given up on the door knocking.

Less people are getting married and having children or just one. Part of that is because they have left the church and some of it is through sheer practicality.

Because of wages and inflation. Wages for the entry blue-collar worker has stagnated for the past thirty years. The margins for many of the working class jobs are extremely thin and the wages reflect that so if you are an "employee" then you are fucked over the long-term. We always have the principles of ERE to save us but not everybody is capable of this and not everybody can create their own companies and be successful. It's quite shocking actually how little wages have increased for many jobs that are extremely necessary and important.

Immigration has its role to play here because if you have a large pool of people that will work for low wages then you will naturally depress any wage increase. And they tend to gravitate towards the blue-collar jobs; drive by any construction site and just observe. Opinion here, but it always bothers me when people declare that immigrants do the work that citizens refuse to do. It should be rephrased that immigrants will do the work that citizens refuse to do for a particular wage. Obviously, there is a lot to unpack from that opinion but the reality is that immigration has gone bonkers recently, look at any graph, and that is quite a change from any presidency, Republican or Democrat.

There has been a huge shift in perception of gay people in my lifetime. They've become boring, acceptance.

People are much fatter than they used to be in my youth. I watched a movie from 1973 the other day and it was quite a contrast in body compositions from what you observe today. Some of it is lifestyle, but a lot of it is cheap, processed carbs too. And everything else that is overly processed and refined. Many of our food choices are literally poison. But it is also my perception that people in general are living longer, even with debilitating conditions.

Wars haven't changed much in my lifetime. They are always over resources for the most part and governments find a lie (weapons of mass destruction, etc.) that the populace will swallow to gain support for it. What has been a nice consistency is that skirmishes remain fairly localized with conventional weapons. Nobody has been dumb enough to do something stupid enough to mandate huge involvement from large players. And by nice consistency I mean it could be much, much worse. Also, people are much more aware of circumstances now behind "decisions" and that has an effect on actions moving forward so another win for the internet. No more easy lies.

In my observations, the seasons have shifted by about thirty days with it staying quite a bit hotter later in the Autumn season. As far as extreme weather, it is about the same I would guess. I think we are more acutely aware of weather than we used to be in the past. Another effect of the internet.
One thing I'll add is just how blatant we're seeing how society is aging, and rapidly so.

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Re: surprised by change and upredictability

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

I was browsing a maker magazine the other day and happened upon a model for creativity/innovation described as Imitation-> Modification-> Innovation. It struck me that the term Modification might lend some insight to what is going on at the Coordinating level of the CCCCC Copying-> Comparing-> Compiling -> Coordinating->Creating model of Gauging Mastery in "ERE." For example, the Creative production of the ERE Wheaton Level Chart is obviously a Modification of the Permaculture Wheaton Level Chart within the Niche of Personal Finance/ERE. "ERE" in general could be seen as a Modification of Lifestyle Design within the Niche of Sustainability. The concept of Semi-ERE spontaneously popped into existence as a collection of Modifications of the FI model of ERE, really no different than how the concept of bicycle can be Modified towards variety of uses/terrains. At some juncture of Modification/Innovation and/or Coordination/Creativity, bicycle-rendered-more-rugged pops out with its own identity as Mountain Bike.

When making predictions about the future, beyond the impossibility of imagining unimaginable big C creativity breakthroughs, there is still the challenge of imagining the second order effect of how change may cause humans to modify their behavior or not. For example, The Grinch was wrong when he predicted that stealing all the presents and decorations from the Whos down in Whoville would stop Christmas from coming. IOW, he confused Interobjective with the Intersubjective and the Intersubjective was still well able to re-Create Christmas.

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Re: surprised by change and upredictability

Post by Sclass »

jacob wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2024 5:41 pm
(Robotics? No, it's not even happening now (need to see a generalized robot folding laundry and taking the kids to school, not one doing dance moves), so 2050 is not far enough into the future.
Don’t want to disrupt the lively discussion but this jumped out at me.

This is changing so fast right now. I was humbled when I was shown a video of Teslas FSD last night. Not a month old video but an hour old video. Robots are prime time.

We apes have this problem with exponentials. They’re all around us but we only notice them when they’re right on top of us.

Ironically I was referred to these latest Telsa fanboy vids because my 88 yo father-in-law is buying a Tesla for its FSD. You should see what they are shipping as of this week. I am blown away and I think my sampling rate is too low to pick up the current rate of change.

Things move fast these days. According to a txt that just came in we are going to his house to see the car when it arrives this afternoon.

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Re: surprised by change and upredictability

Post by zbigi »

As of 2024, Tesla Full Self Driving is still a lie. It's still not certified as an autonomous vehicle, because it's still not safe. So, the so called FSD is still just a glorified driver assist tool. As far as I know, the only car on the market with actual (but very limited) FSD is Mercedes, where you're legally allowed to give up control of the car - but only on motorway and only in low speeds (it basically automates driving in a stop-n-go traffic on a motorway).

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Sclass
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Re: surprised by change and upredictability

Post by Sclass »

zbigi wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2024 11:43 am
As of 2024, Tesla Full Self Driving is still a lie. It's still not certified as an autonomous vehicle, because it's still not safe. So, the so called FSD is still just a glorified driver assist tool. As far as I know, the only car on the market with actual (but very limited) FSD is Mercedes, where you're legally allowed to give up control of the car - but only on motorway and only in low speeds (it basically automates driving in a stop-n-go traffic on a motorway).
Ok. I guess I’m misinformed. That’s what my 88 yo FIL told me. I’ll see what his car can do this afternoon. Hope I survive.

ETA - this is the video I saw. From my undergrad school to my grad school. I know the route very well. Good view of Berkeley physics which was my undergrad degree. I guess you’re right. This is a lie if you are getting into what is legal, certified and safe. Perhaps what they’re calling it “FSD 12.3.5” is a misnomer. I see a machine that appears to work a lot better than I recall it did a few months ago. Just keeping in the spirit of surprise and unpredictability.

https://youtu.be/hhrtNGaWXfM?si=uXJOo4LrK6P8-O8J

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Re: surprised by change and upredictability

Post by delay »

Thanks for sharing! The car stops for a stop sign, stops for pedestrians, changes lines... amazing.

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Re: surprised by change and upredictability

Post by chenda »

jacob wrote:
Thu Apr 18, 2024 7:56 am
This is a great summary thanks Jacob. What leads you to believe Africa will not follow the route of China or India, or did I misread ?

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Re: surprised by change and upredictability

Post by zbigi »

@Sclass yep, it's pretty cool for what it is. However, Musk's sales pitch back in 2016 or so was for people to pre-pay the extra $10k (or whatever it was) for FSD, because once it lands, their Teslas will be able to work as autonomous taxis 24/7, and will only appreciate in value. Obviously, 8 years later, we're nowhere near that (there's a even lawsuit by fooled Tesla owners who want the $10k back.). Autonomous robotics in safety-critical fields is just super hard.

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Re: surprised by change and upredictability

Post by ducknald_don »

Sclass wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2024 12:26 pm
Ok. I guess I’m misinformed. That’s what my 88 yo FIL told me. I’ll see what his car can do this afternoon. Hope I survive.
My understanding is you are expected to be fully aware of the driving situation and ready to take control at any moment.

If your farther in law is buying the car because he is no longer capable of driving a normal car then he may have been misled.

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Re: surprised by change and upredictability

Post by Ego »

zbigi wrote:
Sat Apr 27, 2024 3:20 pm
@Sclass yep, it's pretty cool for what it is. However, Musk's sales pitch back in 2016 or so was for people to pre-pay the extra $10k (or whatever it was) for FSD, because once it lands, their Teslas will be able to work as autonomous taxis 24/7, and will only appreciate in value. Obviously, 8 years later, we're nowhere near that (there's a even lawsuit by fooled Tesla owners who want the $10k back.). Autonomous robotics in safety-critical fields is just super hard.
But the tech is there, right? The fact that there were x-million human caused accidents last year is overlooked. Every single robot caused accident get publicity. The current FSD is much better than actual human drivers, just not perfect. Will it ever be perfect?

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Re: surprised by change and upredictability

Post by zbigi »

Ego wrote:
Sun Apr 28, 2024 8:13 am
But the tech is there, right? The fact that there were x-million human caused accidents last year is overlooked. Every single robot caused accident get publicity. The current FSD is much better than actual human drivers, just not perfect. Will it ever be perfect?
Mercedes got their car actually approved to be used in FSD mode in some scenarios. Tesla didn't. It means that either Tesla has bad lawyers that can't push it through the process (unlikely) or that the tech is actually not that great yet. It's likely that Tesla is just not confident enough in its own tech to want to face the lawsuits from people in accidents caused by FSD.

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