Ego's Journal

[Ego]

I think one element may be that the US consumer is cash poor these days.

Agreed. I believe the messaging does not match the reality, but I would have thought that a bike swap meet would have been the place to boom during a downturn. I guess not.

This is something very specific to the bike industry right now. It's imploding, with several direct to consumer brands going kaput over the past 6-12 months.

The two local bike shops closest to me have gone out of business recently, so I agree. Mobile mechanics and online sales are killing what was left of their business. But again, I would have thought that with few bike shops around to supply unique part, people would have been digging at the swap. Strangely, not the case.

[mountainFrugal]

This is the general state of the bike industry. The regular bike shop that did not prioritize specialization and/or service is being out-competed by direct to consumer companies or mobile bike repair. A majority of the bike shops within a two hour drive of me have something else to add value to a physical location (e.g. coffeeshop/beershop/art etc.). If the bike shop did not own the customer interaction or quickly embrace eBikes, people would just buy online. At least in the mountain bike world, I am banking on repairs always being prioritized for the punishment people put on these machines and will not take any of the inventory risk that a regular bike shop would have. They have to order all the bikes the year before hoping they were going to sell them to maintain any type of large brand account. Squeezed from literally all sides. I plan on being nimble and able to pick up bikes in my van to take to my shop as part of the service. A repair specific, but mobile ready repair business.

Add: another trend is large bike manufacturers (Trek, Giant etc.) are buying up shops that do well with their brand and doubling down on having a presence in certain communities. eBikes are also the future of this entire industry for better or worse.

Add 2: if you are interested in following along https://www.bicycleretailer.com/ and also https://www.pinkbike.com/ (now owned by outside I think) has general industry news.

[2Birds1Stone]

@mF, interesting observation regarding the big brand bike shops. Trek did this on Long Island in NY and I hate to say it, has a MUCH better reputation for quality of service AND turn around times vs. the independent LBS's in the area.

The inventory arrivals being delayed from late 2020/through 2021 orders was a huge hit to our LBS's in NY. They literally got double the bikes they sell in a typical year when inventory finally started shipping in 2022/2023. Most of what they have in the shop is on credit, so it was a catastrophic situation considering the drop in demand.

[loutfard]

Deepest market penetration in the world for speed pedelecs (45 km/h electric bicycles) where I currently live. A major car distributor is systematically taking over ebike dealerships with substantial turnover.

[delay]

When I was bike shopping in December 2021 I was lucky enough to pay MSRP for a $4k Trek MTB, dealers just couldn't get enough stock to meet sudden demand due to COVID. They placed large orders which got delayed 12-18 months due to supply chain issues....

It was like that in Europe too, my bike couldn't be repaired because the parts had a 6+ month delivery time. I eventually found the spare part on Ebay for double the price, but at least I could cycle again! The supply problem was there until the start of 2023.

[Ego]

Most of our possessions have been sold. Mrs. Ego's scooter has been sold despite three friends offering to store it for us. The photos below show our storage unit. This time we needed a 5' X 10' unit. We decided to save the Honda Fit and three bikes.



Jobs resigned. Just after resigning, the owners of the property management company asked us to lunch. Mrs. Ego mentioned that the next time we return we would love to manage a building in a particular resort area in our city. The moment the words left her mouth, their eyes grew wide with surprise. They told us that just after lunch they had a meeting with a property owner who had previously been with the company but had left a few years ago and were now interested in returning. Our company has expanded rapidly in the last few years and they were debating whether to take back this previous owner. It turns out, the owner has one extremely nice property in the area where we want to live. They said that this must be some sort of sign. We shall see in a year or so. It could be one of those strange opportunities that would have never appeared had we not pressed reset.

Inventory for my store has been sold. Keys to the apartment have been turned in. The apartment building telephone and email has been forwarded to people who are not us. One way tickets to Lisbon. Only a few nights in a hotel with shared bath have been booked so far.

It is surprising how good this feels.

[theanimal]

Great update! You guys had a much longer break from travelling than your previous stints. Did you notice any differences or challenges in getting ready and leaving than before? More things to get rid of? A stronger sense of attachment? Something else?

[jacob]

It could be one of those strange opportunities that would have never appeared had we not pressed reset.

Brilliant! I think it's also a connection that wouldn't have happened if Mrs Ego hadn't (spontaneously?) mentioned the possibility. Ultimately, it's about control, access, and optionality. Lunch gave you access (you might already have had that) and the suggestion gave you optionality. Control was already established. This in turn created the serendipity.

(FWIW, I am kinda hoping that's what ERE City would make happen all the time. Right now, the problem is that we're spread all over. You're more on an exception in that you've kinda created your own ERE City type community.)

[Ego]

@theanimal, YES!!! Four and a half years seemed twice as hard as our normal three year. I am not sure why.

We certainly had more stuff to sell, but we did phenomenally well with that. I created an "Estate Sale" on Facebook Marketplace where I listed the price of the paintings and furniture. Mrs. Ego set the prices absurdly high. Despite that, we sold most of it over the weekend. People came with cash burning holes in their pockets. Everyone who came bought something. I've decided that when we return we will do a regular quarterly estate sale.

Rather than renting a truck and doing one big swap meet sale, I loaded the Honda Fit and headed to four different swaps over a few weeks. That way I was able to hold the prices a bit higher and wait for the right person to come along. At the end of each sale, I would gather the remaining junk together and offer it to a neighboring seller. In the end we got rid of everything that needed to go.

@jacob, Mrs. Ego actually planned it. They are constantly taking on new properties. Generally when they do, they inherit the previous managers. We wanted to plant a seed in their minds that if they were offered a property in our preferred location, they might consider hanging on to the inherited manager until we return. Otherwise they would be reluctant to replace someone in whom they have invested a lot of training. Hopefully that happens and it works.

[Western Red Cedar]

Well done and congratulations! There is nothing like cleaning out the literal and figurative closets to make way for something new and exciting. Please keep us updated on your adventures abroad.

[2Birds1Stone]

Ah Lisbon!! Enjoy your travels.

We hiked the Fishermans Trail from north to south last year in May and it was PERFECT weather + lots of beautiful flowers. The sections from Porto Covo to Sagres were the best.....highly recommend it if you're into that sort of thing. It was quite empty and the villages were welcoming.

https://rotavicentina.com/en/fishermens-trail/

[Ego]

@WRC, cleaning the closets is a wonderful feeling!

@2Birds1Stone, We are headed to Lagos tomorrow and may do the trail backward. The Planner is working on the details now. Our first serendipity of the trip. THANK YOU!!!!

[2Birds1Stone]

Nice! i would either skip the sections from Lagos to Sagres by taking the bus, or if you decide to walk them, do the first two in a single day, they are both short and not that exciting. Once you get to Sagres and head north it gets pretty incredible.

There is quite a bit of walking on soft sand, so be mindful with footwear choice and empty the sand from your shoes/socks often. I wish we had acquired or DIY'd some gaiters to wear over our ankles. We used low trail runners and the sand was a PITA.

[chenda]

@Ego - enjoy! Lagos is a great town (with the world's ugliest statue in the main square;) Restaurante Munich is a good place for food or coffee, just opposite the Marina. If you fancy a road trip, head east then north to Monchique and then back to Lagos via Aljezur. Both are nice towns are you'll see some great mountain scenery. Cafe da Ponta in Aljezur is my coffee recommendation.

Re the fisherman's trail if you want to sun or swim in secluded bays there's a lot between praia da luz and sagres, the coastline is much less developed than towards Lagos. Salema and Burgau are nice little coastal villages. North of sagres is indeed spectacular.

[Ego]

Mrs. Ego sent me a text from the kitchen of our hostel in Lisbon, saying she was heading into the bathroom. I responded that I was starting my workout and asked that she please knock on the door to our private room before entering (she had the key) as I was going to hang my TRX suspension trainer from the door. She did not see my text, came back to the room and opened the door while I was hanging from it. Splat.

The next morning my wrist was double its size. Five days out, the swelling has gone down so that it looks just about normal except that it is black and blue nearly to the elbow. I have about 90% range of motion. It throbs at night.

We decided to hang out in Lagos for a few weeks. Back in 1993 when the Portuguese Escudo was still in use, we spent Thanksgiving to New Years here in the '75 VW Westfalia campervan we had purchased in London. While the town itself is virtually indistinguishable, the campsite has not changed at all.

Nice! i would either skip the sections from Lagos to Sagres by taking the bus, or if you decide to walk them, do the first two in a single day, they are both short and not that exciting. Once you get to Sagres and head north it gets pretty incredible.

There is quite a bit of walking on soft sand, so be mindful with footwear choice and empty the sand from your shoes/socks often. I wish we had acquired or DIY'd some gaiters to wear over our ankles. We used low trail runners and the sand was a PITA.

We start in Porto Covo on the 27th. Mrs. Ego's Salomon Amphibian shoes will not work with the sand. We figure we have a few weeks to come up with gaiters and search the thrift stores in town for boots or hiking shoes. Lagos is the end of the trail so we may get lucky to find footwear someone discarded after the hike.

Re the fisherman's trail if you want to sun or swim in secluded bays there's a lot between praia da luz and sagres, the coastline is much less developed than towards Lagos. Salema and Burgau are nice little coastal villages. North of sagres is indeed spectacular.

Thank you! We ran out that way yesterday. It was beautiful.

[Laura Ingalls]

We were supposed to go to Spain today to start the Camino.
I fell crossing the street in Chicago and fractured my wrist.

Head back to Iowa to get more medical care and heal

Anyway I am relating. Hopefully you heal quickly.

[Ego]

Laura, I am sorry to hear that. I hope you heal quickly. Have you postponed the trip or completely cancelled it?

I don't believe my wrist is fractured, but I haven't had it x-rayed. Since I have pretty good range of motion, I expect it will come back with rest.

[Laura Ingalls]

Ego
We are postponing til probably September.

[Ego]

@Laura, we did the camino in September a few years ago. It was excellent. Heal up!

Mrs. Ego found a pretty good pair of hiking shoes in her size at an animal welfare thrift store for €3. We couldn't believe our luck.



Still working on material for gaiters. This is fun.