Early Retirement Extreme Forums

BRUTE wrote:

radamfi wrote:If you want a more egalitarian society, then you will find it in northern Europe, with its high tax levels and generous welfare systems.

radamfi means with its tiny countries almost empty of humans and super homogeneous populations. every policy works for a tiny group of similar humans. the LA metro area has more humans living in it than Sweden, and more than Norway and Denmark combined.

But Ireland, a small country with a homogenous population, has a similar Anglo-Saxon economic model as the UK. The Netherlands is a very densely populated country with substantial ethnic diversity but follows the Nordic model to a large extent.

Would you not agree that if the populace are so enthusiastic about the best of the enviro/workers rights EU legislation, there's no reason why they would stand around and do nothing as those regulations are repealed by the Tories. If worker's rights are dumbed down and people are thrown into hardship, a new government who promises to reverse right wing policies will be in before you can say 'taxes'. See how quickly the Tories did a U-turn on the cuts to disability welfare not too long ago, they can't get away with too much. If they get away with it, its because no one cared enough to lobby their MP, and well, there you have the downside of democracy.

For the record, I have as little faith in the politics of the left as I do in the right. Individualism above all else appeals to me, i.e. less government intervention. Unfortunately pro-individualist are a minority group and have little sway in politics. On top of that, we operate within a R-selected ideology, there's little current governments can or are willing to do to change it. Maybe the smart thing to do is accelerate the downfall of our current civilisation to put to an end our R-selected behaviours, but who's to say what replaces it will be better and not much worse?

Seeking a more egalitarianism society through increased welfare spending isn't the answer IMO, that's not to say egalitarianism isn't a worth while pursuit, but not through increasing taxes or increasing deficiet spending. It should be voluntary and community based. Welfare (except for those who lack the capacity to fend for themselves) is like the bread and circuses that distract the masses from what's really happening. In fact I believe welfare is a major part of the problem. Reducing wealth inequality, promoting individual responsibility and local community and sustainable practice is a better long term solution to the West's terminal decline, centralised bureaucracy is ill-suited to determining and implementing the best responses to localised hardships. In other words switching to a k-selection behaviours and localised society is the only solution I see. I'm not waiting for any government to bring about change, I'm making those changes myself and it just so happens that following ERE philosophy which is heavy on k-selection behaviours means we are doing our bit. Be the change you want to see and all that!

egalitarianism creates lots of losers, too. humans should not be surprised when they don't appreciate it.

Shit
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... -the-money

Will Italy follow the U.K.'s example and leave the European Union? Far-fetched as it may seem, capital flows suggest that some people aren’t waiting to find out.

Ego wrote:Shit
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... -the-money

Will Italy follow the U.K.'s example and leave the European Union? Far-fetched as it may seem, capital flows suggest that some people aren’t waiting to find out.

It looks like they have corrected the title:

Corrects headline and fourth paragraph to reflect goal of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's opponents. They want a vote on whether Italy will stay in the euro, not the EU.

My understanding is support for the EU has risen in the rest of Europe after the vote for brexit.

I'm Italian living in Italy, and I would bet half my net worth we're not going to exit either the euro or the eu in the next ten years.
They would have to kick us out

Man.... today I am being a worry wart. Thanks to both of you!

I've seen crazier things happen.
I don't think anybody would have predicted brexit, or that trump would be the republican nominee.
I remember people joking about this 6 months ago (myself included).
So while I would say probabilities of Italy willfully getting out of the euro are very low today, this doesn't mean it will not happen.
I surely hope it doesn't. As bad as European politicians have been recently, they will never be as bad on average as the Italians we have had in the last 20 years

Seppia wrote: I don't think anybody would have predicted brexit, or that trump would be the republican nominee.
I remember people joking about this 6 months ago (myself included).

Err, lots of people predicted brexit (40% chance the day before the vote). Fewer people predicted Trump being the republican nominee.

Trump currently has about a 15% chance to be the President.

Next Scottish Independence Referendum result being for independence is 61%.

Can't find any prediction market with odds on an Italy exit..

Seppia wrote:As bad as European politicians have been recently, they will never be as bad on average as the Italians we have had in the last 20 years

hey at least he appointed sexy ministers.

It will be interesting to see how this actually works:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/theres ... 2016-10-20

I think that other than industries that benefit from a weaker pound, they are going to find that not being in the EU does not really benefit them or solve any particular problem, but will create a host of other bureaucratic issues. I wonder if it will affect compensation in the Premier League.

There is quite a lot of debate at the moment about whether we negotiate a soft or hard brexit. My suspicion is we won't have much choice, we aren't holding a strong hand and the EU knows that.

We were told during the campaign that the EU would negotiate a trade deal because we buy so many German cars, conveniently forgetting all the rest of the EU countries need to agree any deal. Right now the trade deal with Canada is being held up because of a small region in Belgium.

Exactly, the inability to reach deals quickly is the Achilles heel of the whole EU, and should be fixed. pronto.
The brexit in my opinion was dumb from the start since the UK already has separate and unique deals on a lot of subjects and a unique position in the EU. And the people mostly affected didn't show up to vote.

Whatever you feel about living in a autonomous country which you as the people can really change the outcome, as a EU we are more stable I think.
It just needs a new way in which things can be done.

Not surprising the banks are starting to leave. The downside risk is too great to stay. NYC will benefit some. It will be interesting to see where the rest go in Europe.

there doesn't seem to be an obvious city - Frankfurt has the airport but is boring, Milan is interesting but not great English, Dublin is English but not as big a financial center (ibrc).. something in the Netherlands was surprisingly high on this list, because they speak good English, they're pretty central, and they also have a good airport.

@Bryan -

I can't believe we're getting an independence referendum do over - my journal title will be far less amusing...

This could have an interesting impact on the UK's tax revenue, the top 5% of earners generate nearly half of the country's tax. My guess is many of those people work in the city.

I work in the City of London. Brexit came as an enormous surprise.

Overall it seems frankly quite mad, most votes cast on the basis of misdiagnosed symptoms and erroneous cures, bigotry and wishful thinking.

Yet some voted Brexit for reasons I can respect: lack of democracy in the EU institutions; national sovereignty and control.

Respect but disagree. The EU has a multitude of flaws but frankly as a non-Euro member the UK had it good. Stability and increasing trust relationships. Now gone.

There are few Brexiters in commerce and industry or mainstream politics: the very same people who have now to adapt and make Brexit work, did not want it.

My odds on a prosperous still-intact UK in ten years are about 50%. Upside is very uncertain. Quite unnecessary to have taken that risk.

That said, we are where we are. There are many people of intelligence and willpower in the UK, who will try to exploit such opportunities as exist. I will be ERE'd.

I hope they never actually Brexit. Killing the right to live and work anywhere in the EU is a huge loss.