Portfolio Charts

Ask your investment, budget, and other money related questions here
Chad
Posts: 3844
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Chad »

Agreed with JP. "Commentary" sounds more professional than "blog". The site is turning out really well. You getting any traffic yet?

Tyler9000
Posts: 1758
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:45 pm

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Tyler9000 »

Traffic has cooled off substantially since the initial Reformed Broker wave, but I appear to have picked up some regular visitors in the process. It's not to the point of thinking about monetizing the traffic or anything, but enough that I'm starting to see a few random referrals from message boards and social media. While the early publicity was really cool, organic interest from regular people who find it personally useful was always my main hope. So far so good.

Dragline
Posts: 4436
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:50 am

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Dragline »

If you want to continue to keep the traffic coming, I would add a regular feature such as a "portfolio of the month", that you could then compare with the regular stable.

Also, is there a way you could have a user-defined category that is just a fixed rate of some kind? That would cover annuities or other things people might want to model and tinker with.

jacob
Site Admin
Posts: 15907
Joined: Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:38 pm
Location: USA, Zone 5b, Koppen Dfa, Elev. 620ft, Walkscore 77
Contact:

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by jacob »

I suggest making http://portfoliocharts.com/portfolios/ the actual homepage.

There's not much to see on the landing page. People need to take action. People don't like to take action.

BlueNote
Posts: 501
Joined: Sat Jun 08, 2013 6:26 pm
Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by BlueNote »

Cool idea! As a fellow excel wonk I salute you!

Tyler9000
Posts: 1758
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:45 pm

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Tyler9000 »

@Dragline: Both great ideas. The fixed rate is simple enough and something I hadn't thought about. I'll have to experiment with that.

@Jacob: Your instinct for the portfolios is astute, as so far that seems to be the most popular page. I sorta like having a separate home page as a starting point (for stuff like disclaimers, etc), but I do like the idea of providing more content there to help people dive in. You have me thinking about a middle ground with some wordpress tools to add top portfolios and other pages to the front page that will automatically rotate to show different content. But your suggestion has the added benefit of being simple. I'll have to ponder that.

@BlueNote: Thanks!

Chad
Posts: 3844
Joined: Fri Jul 23, 2010 3:10 pm

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Chad »

Good to hear. Even if you don't plan to monetize the site, it's probably still nice to see people use it.

bryan
Posts: 1061
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am
Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by bryan »

got around to checking it out and.. great! very pretty and somewhat informative for me. I will look into some of these.

thanks!

Are their portfolio indexes? Does Vanguard (or others) offer mutual funds which track each popular asset allocation (or said indexes)? Is this your business strategy to offer new indexes and mutual funds which track them; while also putting a lot of effort into giving users a pretty graphical experience that makes them happy (maybe play some behavioural psychology tricks on them so they don't hurt themselves too badly buying high, selling low)? ;) Someone would acquire you, no problem!

Tyler9000
Posts: 1758
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:45 pm

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Tyler9000 »

Glad you like it!

Offering my own index funds is definitely more work than I planned. Dealing with the SEC is not currently part of my retirement goals. ;) . But you're not the first to ask for a list of index funds for each asset class. There are plenty available, and publishing a guide is quickly working its way up my list. If I can find some affiliate programs to make a few bucks off of the referrals, that would be nice.

Tyler9000
Posts: 1758
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:45 pm

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Tyler9000 »

So I've added a new calculator to the site that many people here will find interesting. It's called the Withdrawal Rates calculator, and it finds the Safe Withdrawal Rate for any asset allocation based on their actual assets rather than the percentage of generic "stocks" and "bonds" like in most relevant research and standard advice. The results will probably surprise you.

For fellow very early retirees, I've also added a "Sustainable Withdrawal Rate" that would have maintained the original inflation adjusted principal rather than spend it down to nothing.

The best place to start is to read this. Enjoy!

bryan
Posts: 1061
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am
Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by bryan »

Again, very cool!

Could you make the x/y axis constant across portfolios? Or put a black number overlay on the green WR bars? Hard to compare the charts of the pre-determined *-withdrawal-rates.jpg or if multiple windows of calculators are open.

edit:
another idea: add a sort of monte carlo option to the hurricane calculator, for folks who don't feel comfortable with the traditional (firecalc) way of backtesting. Personal Capital did it: https://blog.personalcapital.com/person ... odern-era/

also, seems it's on reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindep ... wal_rates/

edit2: i need to check out https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/mon ... simulation and family... see: https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindep ... es/cuv0o8f
Last edited by bryan on Tue Sep 08, 2015 7:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Tyler9000
Posts: 1758
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:45 pm

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Tyler9000 »

Good idea on fixing the axis labels to compare charts side by side. I'll have to research that to find an appropriate bound. Thanks for the tip.

The monte carlo simulation idea is interesting. I've been intentionally taking the "simple" approach to tool development as I feel it's most useful for the widest number of people -- organically making it to Reddit and seeing a good conversation there is pretty awesome and helps validate I'm on the right track. The one on PortfolioVisualizer is pretty great with lots of features for power users (I especially like that you can change the sampling method) and I definitely recommend it. If I can find a way to squeeze that down to something more straightforward then it might make the cut.

Dragline
Posts: 4436
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:50 am

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Dragline »

So what's your favorite on the SWR calculator?

33% Small cap value, 33% Long Term Treasury, 17% Gold and 17% Reit looks really good.

black_son_of_gray
Posts: 504
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:39 pm

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by black_son_of_gray »

@ Dragline: Nice! A slight tweak to your allocation: 33 % small cap value, 17% long term treasury, 16% commodities, 17% gold, 17% REIT
Maybe a little worse at 10 years (12 and 4.5% vs 11.4 and 4.8%), but that 40 year! (7 and 6.6% vs 6.5 and 6.0%)

black_son_of_gray
Posts: 504
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 7:39 pm

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by black_son_of_gray »

Or better yet: 50% small cap value, 12.5% LT treasury, 12.5% commodities, 12.5% gold, 12.5% REIT gives 12 and 5.4% @ year 10 and 7.3 and 7.0 @ year 40

Tyler9000
Posts: 1758
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:45 pm

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Tyler9000 »

This may sound surprising, but I usually have more fun building the tools than I do tinkering with them. I've experimented with portfolio values a lot less than you'd probably think.

I do find this kinda interesting:
Image

Basically, one may naturally believe that chasing maximum returns increases withdrawal rates but that's not necessarily true. Diversification and low volatility (of the overall portfolio) also play significant roles. FWIW, that's a big reason why I believe things like LTTs, gold, and REITs are so helpful. They help balance the stocks with other uncorrelated assets.

Dragline
Posts: 4436
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2011 1:50 am

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Dragline »

Question for T9K: What is the "commodities" index or fund that is being tracked and how much of it is energy-related?

Tyler9000
Posts: 1758
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:45 pm

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Tyler9000 »

Commodities
============================
COMM - Commodities/Natural Resources
Collaterallized Chase Index 1972-1990
DJ-AIJ plus T-Bills 1991-1996
DJ-AIG plus Yahoo's IPS 'category' returns 1997-2001 (prior to VIPSX)
DJ-AIJ plus VIPSX - 2001-2002
Pimco PCRIX 2003+


Here's the info for PCRIX:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=PCRIX+Holdings

These days, it's more real estate than energy.

bryan
Posts: 1061
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2014 2:01 am
Location: mostly Bay Area

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by bryan »

for giggles, plugged in 5% and I'm just 1.5 years away from ERE (versus 3.5 using 3.5%). Probably in a year or two (before I'm 30) will do some additional analysis of scenarios to see where I'm at.. would be nice if to travel in the van through South America to see if living there "permanently" would be something that would suit me.

@Tyler9000, do you have the capability to backtest more dynamic portfolios? One that incorporates market timing (after x metric be sure you are using Ivy, after y metric be sure you are using PP)?

Tyler9000
Posts: 1758
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2012 11:45 pm

Re: Portfolio Charts

Post by Tyler9000 »

Not yet, but that's an interesting idea. Encouraging people to switch portfolios regularly is against my nature and could start down a dangerous road, but accurately representing the systems specifically advocated by some portfolios (like the momentum methods of the Ivy portfolio or rebalancing bands of the PP) seems reasonable.

Post Reply