Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

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Chad
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Chad »

Scrubby wrote:
Chad wrote:No, we don't. The current situation in the Ukraine is a prime example. We started the current mess in Ukraine. Russia is just responding to our initial move.
There is seldom an "initial move" in history, and certainly not in this case. Russia have been suppressing democracy in Ukraine for ages.
I understand what you are saying about initial moves, but they do exist. In this case, the situation was reset when the Soviet Union collapsed. They basically conceded the majority of the world to be under a US sphere of influence. In return, Russia wanted, actually it was non-negotiable, to retain a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe (see the link below for a good summary of how they are threatened geographically). There are rumors the US/NATO, but it's actually the US, promised not to bring NATO to Russia's borders.* Whether they did or not, it is blatantly obvious to any US/NATO intelligence agency that pulling certain Eastern European countries into NATO and Europe (Baltics and Ukraine) would directly threaten Russia.

https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/geopo ... t-struggle

If Russia or China did this with Mexico we would have gone further than Russia has gone with the loss of the Baltics and the beginning of the loss of Ukraine. Hell, we almost started a nuclear war over Cuba and we actually respected Russia's military power then.

*This has been denied by Gorbachev and NATO. Of course, this type of promise is rarely done directly. This was probably more of an implicit promise.

Scrubby
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Scrubby »

Chad wrote:I understand what you are saying about initial moves, but they do exist. In this case, the situation was reset when the Soviet Union collapsed. They basically conceded the majority of the world to be under a US sphere of influence. In return, Russia wanted, actually it was non-negotiable, to retain a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe (see the link below for a good summary of how they are threatened geographically).
And it's ok that the Ukrainians don't get to have a say in this?

Chad
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Chad »

@Scrubby
Unfortunately, the Ukrainians are probably only a small variable in the equation. I'm not suggesting it's right, it's just how it's going to play out.

black_son_of_gray
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by black_son_of_gray »

Dragline wrote:My "vote" is simply the idea that the US manipulates foreign governments, especially smaller countries where the US has an interest. This has proved be be both true and stupid --i.e., not in our long-term interests. See Iran in the 1950s, Afghanistan/Taliban support in the 1980s and for our old buddy, Saddam, before he went ape-shit in Kuwait. Yet we never learn.
Panama

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GandK
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by GandK »

Peeps are the result of a CIA experiment in mutation, and their parent company - Just Born Inc. - is a front for human cloning work.

Scrubby
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Scrubby »

Chad wrote:@Scrubby
Unfortunately, the Ukrainians are probably only a small variable in the equation. I'm not suggesting it's right, it's just how it's going to play out.
They are the ones living there, and the regime change was mostly initiated by them. This isn't like Iran or the other countries where the US have toppled governments and replaced them by puppet dictators. Sure, the US would prefer a government who is friendly to them, but in this case I think it's wrong to blame them for the invasion. Putin wants an empire and needs an enemy to distract his own people, and the revolt against his man in Ukraine gave him an excuse to take the areas he wanted.

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by 7Wannabe5 »

The CIA and SIS engineered coup against Mossadeq (Operation Ajax-the U.S. paid well-known underworld thugs and their minions to join in protest) in 1953 was the event that left many Iranians embittered and more willing to believe any sort of "hidden foreign hand" conspiracy theory. Prior to that, American policies and policy-makers were regarded as more fair and less high-handed than the British or Soviets. Of course, there is more than a bit of geography is destiny at play. Persian culture (of course, not to be in any way confused with the Shi'a branch of Islam) has survived through quite a few international puppet plays over the millennia. One difficulty I had, when I was frequently in the company of well-educated Iranians, was in trying to convince them that most Americans, including many of our fine democratically elected representatives, really are "that ignorant" of world history and the policies of their own government. The Bush II era, in particular, reinforced the belief that Americans "play dumb" in their open foreign policy, while something more intelligently-designed is going on behind the scenes. OTOH, it has also become increasingly easy to argue "No, we really are dumb." given, for instance, actions taken with knowledge that the openly stated policy/goal of Al Qaeda in relationship to the U.S. is to lead us into bankruptcy by way of the expense of interventionism and thereby, remove obstacle to primary objective of obliterating the Shi'a. And, of course, the likelihood that such an actually only quite recently ramped up white shirt/black shirt ideological excuse for conflict as the Shi'a/Sunni divide would have come into such malevolent being absent the U.S. support for the Al Saud dynasty...?

cmonkey
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by cmonkey »

Chad wrote:One of the favorite conspiracy theories appears to be the Bretton Woods, Bilderberg, UN "Black helicopters", FEMA camps, aka...unelected elites running the world without our permission. I love this one in novels and movies (Mr. Robot is doing this very well). In reality ,it's probably just various official agreements happening to run together with unofficial and uncoordinated actions by wealthy/powerful people based on self-interest and the current system. Not some nefarious well organized elite cabal with an overarching goal they agree upon at a handful of yearly meetings.
After following this movement for a while, I tend to agree with this statement. Control freaks have always risen to power throughout history and today is no different other than the degree to which they can implement control. World-wide systems for transport, communication and economics allow for folks in power to push for world wide control. They are simply doing what they do best, as are the rest of us. Doesn't mean that what the 'world government' folks warn of isn't happening (on some levels) its just not happening due to the reasons they believe in. What less would you expect from the government of a country that is experiencing unrest/economic problems/general disgust in politics than black helicopters/militarized police/executive orders? Self-preservation.

Back to the OP, I find the most interesting of the conspiracy theories to be the 'dark side of the moon' camp which postulates the moon is in fact an alien spaceship/space station. :lol: They have some fairly tantalizing postulations.

DSKla
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by DSKla »

I tend to fall in the category that believes governments and secret societies cannot realistically orchestrate vast, long-term conspiracies. This is partly due to incompetence, but partly due to the fact that the exact results are fudnamentally unpredictable. A small group of people may be able to orchestrate a conspiracy that involves a single event, like some of the false flag attacks that were linked earlier, but if it involves too many people, or is expected to have a predictable, controllable effect on a very large population for years or generations, I doubt there is any way the conspirators could achieve the desired result. Too many moving parts. I could potentially see them trying, and then getting an unintended result.

If you're talking about Templars or worldwide secret societies of elites, even the best-laid plans are going to be affected by things beyond their control and take unwanted turns. If their plan is to make subtle moves and constantly adjust as opportunities present themselves, I think that mas more potential, but it seems ultimately doomed. They'd spend more and more time dealing with unintended consequences or events beyond their control that influenced the state of affairs.

I think the scope of effective conspiracies would be rather small. Larger ones are bound to be exposed or unravel. None of that means that people won't try, or that the results won't negatively impact us. I just can't see anyone being able to steer things exactly their way for very long, regardless of how competent they are.

Chad
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Chad »

Scrubby wrote:
Chad wrote:@Scrubby
Unfortunately, the Ukrainians are probably only a small variable in the equation. I'm not suggesting it's right, it's just how it's going to play out.
They are the ones living there, and the regime change was mostly initiated by them. This isn't like Iran or the other countries where the US have toppled governments and replaced them by puppet dictators. Sure, the US would prefer a government who is friendly to them, but in this case I think it's wrong to blame them for the invasion. Putin wants an empire and needs an enemy to distract his own people, and the revolt against his man in Ukraine gave him an excuse to take the areas he wanted.
All of that is true to varying degrees. It's also true the US/NATO had a hand in pushing the Ukrainians forward. Without it this push it's probable the revolution doesn't succeed.

The US tried something similar early in the decade.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/n ... kraine.usa

Recent uprising.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles ... st-s-fault

The leaders of the rebels believe they have the backing of the US/NATO.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957

Obviously, Putin isn't the good guy here, but the US/NATO hardly have the moral high ground. The US/NATO has been trying to pull Ukraine out of Russia's sphere of influence for a while. This is quite literally poking the bear. Neither the US/NATO or Russia actually care what the Ukrainians want.

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jennypenny
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by jennypenny »

We're only allowed to pick one? ;)

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by fiby41 »

jennypenny wrote:We're only allowed to pick one? ;)
Not if you deem all of them equally likely to be true.

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jennypenny
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by jennypenny »

Has anyone been following the story of that guy who died in his car in California under mysterious circumstances? You know, the one in Palisades who had the large cache of weapons at his house. His GF now says he was part alien. The whole thing is straight out of X Files.

I'm really hoping he's an alien, or CIA, or an alien working for the CIA. :D

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jennypenny
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by jennypenny »

ffj wrote:I think it is bullshit they took all of his guns and ammo. Unless something else has come up since then. That was his personal property that he legally owned. Is there an angle we don't know about?
That's SOP these days. They also took all of his cash, even though they said they had no reason to suspect he was doing anything illegal. Total bullshit.

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Ego
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Ego »

jennypenny wrote:Has anyone been following the story of that guy who died in his car in California under mysterious circumstances? You know, the one in Palisades who had the large cache of weapons at his house. His GF now says he was part alien. The whole thing is straight out of X Files.

I'm really hoping he's an alien, or CIA, or an alien working for the CIA. :D
Meh. That's not a conspiracy. In SoCal we call that Tuesday.

Scrubby
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Scrubby »

Chad wrote:Obviously, Putin isn't the good guy here, but the US/NATO hardly have the moral high ground. The US/NATO has been trying to pull Ukraine out of Russia's sphere of influence for a while. This is quite literally poking the bear. Neither the US/NATO or Russia actually care what the Ukrainians want.
In my opinion the side who is pro democracy and openness automatically has the moral high ground. It doesn't matter much if they benefit from it themselves. In this case it is the US and partly the EU.

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Spartan_Warrior »

Scrubby wrote:the side who is pro democracy and openness... In this case it is the US...
Sorry, just choked on my tea a little. Carry on! :lol:

Chad
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Chad »

@Scrubby
This isn't about any form of ideological battle between US/EU and Russia. It's a pure and simple power play on both sides. Russia has more to lose, thus the Russian troops being involved and not the American/NATO troops.

Scrubby
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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by Scrubby »

Chad wrote:This isn't about any form of ideological battle between US/EU and Russia. It's a pure and simple power play on both sides. Russia has more to lose, thus the Russian troops being involved and not the American/NATO troops.
You are of course free to think so, but I think every country in Europe that you would say is in the "US sphere of influence" ultimately sees NATO and their good relations with the US as a guarantee for their freedom. The US is no saint, but the alternative is much worse.

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Re: Conspiracy theory you deem most likely to be true

Post by jacob »

Google "pipeline wars X", where X is any "country of interest": Ukraine, Syria, Afghanistan.

Of course, since war is only a continuation of politics when all other means have been exhausted, also google "pipeline politics X", where X is any "country of interest": Greece, Turkey, ...

Also try some names for X instead of countries, e.g. Putin, Nuland, Tsipras, ...

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