Tesla Cars

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vivacious
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by vivacious »

Ya. I still think it's too stressful to hold. Maybe if it becomes more steady in the future. I don't really want to have it now though.

Jeez, -22 after hours also. After hours can be a little unstable but still.

vivacious
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by vivacious »

And the implosion is here. Fell 25 points today. At 151.16 and then exactly 150 after hours.

workathome
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by workathome »

So, we're back to half GM's market cap. Time to short again?

workathome
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by workathome »


Ricky
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by Ricky »

Musk is an unsung hero. Nearly no one I talk to knows who he is - its flooring. He has had an entrepreneurial spirit his entire life and will likely die days after he starts his last company. Fascinating dude and I would buy a Tesla in a heartbeat if I didn't think owning a car over >$25,000 was absolute nuts.

workathome
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by workathome »

Odds of him actually coming out with a 30k car?

I hope so. It could cause a shift in what is acceptable - it would be nice to see a lot of the ridiculous giant trucks with one passenger and nothing being hauled off the road.

Veritas
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by Veritas »

Well, nowadays plenty of people know what Musk does. I'm personally a huge fan of his and have been since before the first Falcon 1 explosion. Naturally that was kind of hard.

But there's no way I'd buy stock in any of his companies. I don't think that the economics for electric cars will ever make it a truly high profit industry on the level that I demand from companies I buy. Furthermore, he has a great track record of turning money into technology, but not a great track record of returning shareholder value through company cashflows. Anything else is just greater fool stock trading. Tesla stock is little more than a baseball card at this point.

If I were to invest in Musk's companies, it would have to be in a way that infuses them with cash, and it would have to be money I would never expect to see again. That said, as Larry Page put it, giving to conventional charities doesn't make sense when you can give money to Elon Musk.

Peanut
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by Peanut »

I can't take Musk seriously anymore since I read he married and divorced the same woman twice. (I kid.)

Wasn't he just hoping against hope that Tim Cook would buy out his potlatch company? Instead Apple's gonna make their own car.
If there's one stock I would break my rule to short it would be TSLA.

workathome
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by workathome »

Has anyone come up with a clever scheme to justify buying a Tesla vehicle yet?

jacob
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by jacob »

Scheme? There are already rather large government tax rebates, etc.

The problem is that from a value proposition electric cars are inferior relative to combustion engine (ICE) cars. The latter are cheaper to make, they go farther on the tank, they're less complex to build, etc. Keep in mind that electric cars are not a novel invention. The first electric car/vehicle dates back to 1835 (that's 30 years after Napoleon!). Until around 1900, electric cars were the preferred technology and held the ground speed record until they were replaced with ICEs. We're not talking about an amazing new technology here. We're talking about a technology that predates the current gas powered car technology by 50-75 years depending on how you count.

The current subsidies are intended to get people to prefer them again (without massive subsidies, practically nobody or rather only extreme eco-tech hippies would buy them). Of course the hope is that maybe all that money will be going into building cars that are better than ICE cars. One major issue is that all the innovation in terms of batteries and electric motors has gone towards making cars heavier and faster (e.g. sportscars) rather than making them go farther or more efficiently. Maybe that's a clever scheme to get people with more money than sense (those who buy 0-60mph within 3 seconds cars to drive around in traffic where the average speed is 18mph) to fund the research. Maybe said research can eventually be used to build e-cars that are much lighter and slower ... e.g. a car that weighs 500 pounds and goes 40mph ... when the time comes when the world can no longer afford the waste.

workathome
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by workathome »

I was thinking more along the lines of "if I drive 60,000 miles/year in a giant SUV that only gets 15 MPG - I could buy a Model X and it would pay for itself in 10 years! So it's free!" Or maybe if the air filter system really work and you can avoid lung cancer and reduce heart disease from exposure to pollution, that could easily be worth $100k or so.

I think you had a good point with "more sense than money" though. Perhaps if you can fire your chauffeur because of the "Autopilot" features and start saving 30k+/year the Model X would also pay for itself in a few years. ;-)

In seriousness though, I agree. An electric with a max speed of 65 or 70, 200 mile range, and 5-6 seats at a reasonable price should replace all ICE cars.

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C40
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by C40 »

Ricky wrote:Musk is an unsung hero. Nearly no one I talk to knows who he is - its flooring. He has had an entrepreneurial spirit his entire life and will likely die days after he starts his last company. Fascinating dude and I would buy a Tesla in a heartbeat if I didn't think owning a car over >$25,000 was absolute nuts.
It's interesting to read this a couple years later. Now Musk is a super-hero of nearly anyone with interest in business or technology.

steelerfan
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by steelerfan »

I guess Jacob can call me an eco-tech hippie LOL. I bought a used 2013 Leaf last November. Paid $12K and received a $3K CO credit. Used but never titled in CO. So for a net $9K I bought a car with 17K miles. The trim and amenities in this base model is basically what you would find in a $20-25K car which is better than I have driven in decades. I love this car for reasons beyond strict economy.

Jacob is correct. There obviously are constraints that make you need to analyze whether it makes sense. I don't necessarily believe that EVs are inferior in every case, but they will not work for some people. There obviously is a range constraint both real and imagined and a battery that WILL degrade over time. The limited range temporarily degrades further in extreme temperatures. If you are in the market for a beater car or are frugal enough to ride a bike walk or take public transit the value is probably not there. Assuming minimal maintenance for the gas car.

I will drive 8000 miles this year for about $100. I am averaging 4 miles per KW @ .05 per KW in CO. I am betting that I will be able to drive this car for several years before I have to make a decision regarding the battery even if my range degrades after the 60K warranty line. In the event I decide to replace it, I am further betting that prices will come down. In addition, there are aftermarket batteries that will extend the range almost double. Not sure if the extra weight will be worth it. Prices are about $5K for a battery but I feel this price will come down and even if it holds I would be fine with a $15K cost for such a great ride with virtually no further maintenance.

Obviously you can beat the value proposition of my used EV with a beater car with gas as low as it is today. Luck may play into it. I always have had several thousand $ in maintenance and repairs in the life of every gas car I have ever had. My crown vic that I sold had cost me about $1500 each of the last two years. It was paid off but was nickel and diming me regularly.

I would never pay the full loaded price for an EV - but at this point I feel they are oversold and when gas prices go back up - they will really pay off - if you accept the limitations of a commuter vehicle with a less than 100 mile range.

George the original one
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by George the original one »

Friend of mine's wife leased a Leaf during her final years of employment. Her employer paid mileage so she could report to a different work site and the mileage was enough she actually turned a profit on the lease terms!

Noided

Re: Tesla Cars

Post by Noided »

From someone who understands nothing about energy/electricity/fossil fuels, is it more efficient to produce electricity from oil and use it to power cars?

jacob
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by jacob »

@Noided - That practically aren't any oil-fired power plants left. Strictly in terms of CO2 emissions, it depends on whether your local power station is coal fired (electric loses) or gas-fired (slight win) or renewable (bigger win). However, in terms of life-cycle evaluations, the question becomes much harder. Electric cars require more advanced technology and therefore the factory footprint is generally higher. E.g. in principle, you can build a conventional car in a machine shop using steel, but an electric car requires semi-conductor level capabilities (magnets, drivetrain control) and more advanced materials (aluminum, carbon). Thus, electric car manufacturing plants have a bigger industrial footprint than ICE cars.

Freedom_2018
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by Freedom_2018 »

So if I am on a long road trip, I can pull into a gas station and top up in a couple of minutes and be on my way. How many hours to charge a Tesla now? Do I need to get a hotel room too?

With a ICE engine, I can carry an extra can of gas that can easily double or triple my range (or AAA can send a vehicle out with extra gas). How do I do that with an EV, haul extra batteries? :)

The energy to weight ratio of a fuel is an important consideration.

I wonder when someone will come out with an electric RV. I bet some folks will buy that too!

workathome
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by workathome »

@Freedom - Teslas take 20 minutes to charge to 50%, 40 minutes to charge to 80%. Good time frames for a bathroom break, stretch legs, or eat a meal at the "Supercharger" stations.

There are tools online to plan trips and time the breaks for fill-ups if you're going on a long trip. Also, right now, it's free to fill up for Teslas (this is baked into the high price of the car).

workathome
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by workathome »

The Leaf looks like a good deal. The 2011's are going at auction for closer to 5k. Even the 2015's with better battery packs and almost new are going for less than 13k.

They're much easier to justify purchasing depending on annual fuel costs (then again, you could just live closer to work and ride a bike), but if you're spending 2k/year in gas the car could certainly pay for itself.

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Chris
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Re: Tesla Cars

Post by Chris »

Freedom_2018 wrote:With a ICE engine, I can carry an extra can of gas that can easily double or triple my range (or AAA can send a vehicle out with extra gas). How do I do that with an EV, haul extra batteries?
The answer to that would be a pack swap, but it turns out that people aren't interested.

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