Sharing some thinking about the future:
For discussion purposes, I see
hedonic regression as one of the major factors in planning for the longer term retirement.
In particular, decisions on housing, but also to establish a DEW line for major shifts in the economy. A good example of this, the current policy movement among the international Central Banks.
Understanding long term interest rates as a precipitating factor for growth, decline, deflation, inflation or hyperinflation is a step beyond market movement and the stability of the market itself.
Subjects such as housing as a percentage of GDP, and the aging population, the effects of medicine, and climate change are just a some of the factors what will be rebalancing in a "Globalized" world.
We, as a nation, have been through a very long period of relatively stable economy broken by relatively small recessions, and mostly affecting stock market losses. Long forgotten and misunderstood are the periods of real hardship from 1929 to the of recovery in 1941.
There are current arguments that the CPI (before chained CPI) has created a gap between stated and real inflation. (Shadow Statistics). Whether that is true or not, the basis behind the establishment of the value of goods and services is only as good as the basis of the currency underlying the calculations.
I am reminded of the saying: "A rising tide lifts all boats".
By the same token the corollary that receding tide could earlier strand and damage those boats with greater draft, with a loss of much cargo. Therein lies the thought that early recognition and preparation could avoid running aground.
So... what?
Where to live?
What to pay?
Rent v. own?
Corporations stability and outlook relative to the economy.
Bond v. Stocks v. other Material investments.
Timing?
Widening understanding of alternate investment strategies.
Gold?
Emerging nations?
Commodities?
Population explosion related factors
Environmental concerns.
And the rest of the litany of risk/reward factors.
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Down to the basics: How is value established?
Will the Michael Jordan Fleers Bubble Gum card be worth $20K in 2024?
Will an extended drought in the West drive up food prices?
Why did property values in Detroit and Las Vegas change? Where else could this happen in ten years?
What could happen with a collapse of the Euro?
Can copyright laws be enforced?
What has value today?
What will have value tomorrow?
Think Pensions, Social Security, Education, Welfare, and especially TAXES.
As food for thought, three minutes spent on this page
http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html
to look at DEBT, should give a picture of the inequality between nations. For a quick comparison, look at public debt to GDP and outside debt to GDP.
Note where the percentage decimal place is!
Check these comparisons
US
UK
India
China
Russia
So... a wider definition of hedonic... the value we place on what makes up the security part of our lives.... and regression... the actual on-balance measure of what the future may bring.
For me, a difficult subject, given the concept of globalization and free trade.
How can we, with an external debt of 100% to GDP, deal with Russia @ 33%, China @6%, England @466% and Ireland @ 1,000+%.
How does printing money become an infinite solution? In the same vein, within the US, balancing unfunded liabilities such as pensions and SS without dealing with tax increases?
Using a 10 year outlook, how do we stay in the game, and not be subject to massive inflation.
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Though at my current age, I have no direct concerns, four sons are in the age brackets of many here on ERE. My thinking is to build a type of "prepper" plan that lists concerns... and potential offsets to avoid the "regression".
ie.
Investment - timing shift to bonds, foreign bonds, or commodities
Housing - Right-size, Right location today and tomorrow
Energy- Serious review of cost vs. efficiency on all sources
Health- Fact based actions, Knowledge based risk reward, accelerated learning curve for self diagnosis and protection.
Actual hedonism - cost of vanity, travel, entertainment - Direct alternate plan.
Timing- Determining trends, watching financial forecasts, cutting through hype to fact
A defensive loss of income plan
Analytical approach to support for education, relatives, charities... measuring wants vs. needs.
Knowledge of and direction for national interests:
-infrastructure
-armed forces
-critical SCOTUS decisions
-law re: environment, global warming, energy
international commitments.
(The latter national interests to be quantified for personal economic directional decisions... ie. "dark clouds forming".)
Agreed that much of this is motherhood... and like... "What's different from what I'm doing already?" ....BUT that's the real purpose of calculating hedonic regression. To establish real value in the face of changing dynamics. Not just a 2007-2008 type market event, but wider causes such as the above mentioned global economic balances.
A lot of "ramble" here, but looking ahead ten years, is more than deciding what to have for lunch.