Generational Differences

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Spartan_Warrior
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Spartan_Warrior »

Ego wrote:Jenny, your point about testing frequency and credentialism has been bugging me for a while.... because it is so true. Could it be that they saw through the nonsense of the testing where scantron results for French class are terrible at predicting who can actually speak French, and then assumed that the nonsense extends to every form of "being measured"? Hum.
It probably doesn't help that in most conventional middle-class forms of "being measured" per other generations--size of house, size of salary, size of job title--more or less the same nonsense does extend.

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GandK
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by GandK »

jennypenny wrote:The irony of the current generation is that even though they grow up thinking everyone gets a trophy, they take more tests and are required to possess more credentials than any previous generation.
Yes, and so many of their credentials now revolve around tests as opposed to practical demonstrations of knowledge or competence. When the test score, not the underlying education or skill, becomes the prize, then cheating becomes destigmatized and rampant.

http://www.caveon.com/resources/cheating-statistics/

One quote from the above: "Almost 85% of college students said cheating was necessary to get ahead." What will test-rich but skills-poor young workers do when the businesses who hired them discover that many of those little emperors have no clothes... that their skills are largely limited to the efficient use of social media and Google to answer direct questions?

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Ego
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Ego »

Spartan_Warrior wrote:It probably doesn't help that in most conventional middle-class forms of "being measured" per other generations--size of house, size of salary, size of job title--more or less the same nonsense does extend.
Agreed.

If I were to stop doing all those things that might gauge my improvement/decline because a prior generation chose their metrics poorly, would that be a smart move on my part? Does the boomers poor choice of metrics absolve GandK's students of cheating?

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jennypenny
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by jennypenny »

Ego wrote: Does the boomers poor choice of metrics absolve GandK's students of cheating?
I don't think so. Opt out instead of cheating. Find a different path. We've talked about this before with higher education. I don't think it's necessarily easy, but I can't imagine cheating your way through credentials is a cake walk either. I think the biggest problem with all of the testing is that the kids become indifferent to it. DD is taking the SATs this morning. It's a non-event for her and her friends. I remember when it was a big deal, but she's taken so many tests in her life that today's test is almost meaningless to her. I can see her point.

------

It's symptomatic of what I see as the biggest problem with the trophy-laden generation. Everything is always ok and everyone always wins, so nothing is ever a big deal. All of life's normal experiences have been modulated for them, so they avoid lows but consequently also avoid the highs. They post on facebook about a good meal in a restaurant with the same level of excitement they would use to post about a graduation or job promotion.

I suppose it's just the same old complaint. If everyone's a winner, no one is. If everything is special, nothing is.

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jennypenny
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by jennypenny »

A Pew panel on the Millennials. Neil Howe is one of the panelists.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PwioWR8WLJ4

Dragline
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Dragline »

One of my favorites -- from 1997: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYW3accapOk

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jennypenny
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by jennypenny »

Dragline wrote:One of my favorites -- from 1997: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYW3accapOk
Wow, that's almost spooky when they talk about 2005-2008. Near the end they also talked about Xers being the survivalists. They didn't mean in a literal sense, but obviously some of us are taking it to that level.

Was 2008 the crisis they talk about? Or just a preamble? That would be too soon, wouldn't it?

Dragline
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Dragline »

Howe would say we went into the crisis period in 2008. Likely to last until sometime in the 2020s, and its safer if its longer.

The watchwords of the Xer generation are Honor, Liberty and Survival. Wanna bumper sticker? Or maybe a Twisted Sister pin. ;-)

Dragline
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Dragline »


Chad
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Chad »

The interesting and scary thing is that for this crisis to last as long as they predict (based on historical norms) there has to be something else. The economic crisis should be over in a couple more years, as long as the morons in congress don't run us into the metaphorical iceberg. Even 5 more years of economic crisis, which appears too long based on current trends, doesn't even get us to 2020. There either has to be another major negative economic event (I'm doubtful) or another event/subject entirely. I'm leaning toward the last option, which could be Orwellian (NSA, out of control police, etc.) gov't vs citizens, wealth disparity, the nation state vs major corporations, or WWW3...maybe some mix.

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jennypenny
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by jennypenny »

Dragline wrote:This one talks about more of that: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5R9sx3T7 ... 100FAA3C96
That was good, although I hate to be pegged so accurately. :lol:


@Chad--I think I agree with you. If the financial crisis had lasted longer or been more severe, it might have counted. There's probably something else on the horizon.

Thinking about this stuff really brings out my inner prepper.

Chad
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Chad »

jennypenny wrote: @Chad--I think I agree with you. If the financial crisis had lasted longer or been more severe, it might have counted. There's probably something else on the horizon.

Thinking about this stuff really brings out my inner prepper.
I actually think the financial crisis counts. Timelines for these types of big macro predictions usually have a fair amount of wiggle room.

Another option would be that the crisis started earlier on 9/11. This would mean a couple more years of volatility and recovery would match their predictions.

Also, where does globalization fit in? Since we are so interconnected now does Greece, Spain, etc. count in the model? I would think it does.

All these crisis really do is prime the younger generations to realize the generation (Boomers) that has been driving everything screwed up rather badly. I think it has been successful.

Dragline
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Dragline »

Yes -- I am honestly most concerned about another war. Something that happens outside the U.S. that we react to. The Arab spring countries will not be stable again for a number of years. But I wouldn't be surprised if there is another financial upheaval that starts in China or somewhere else. China is a big candidate for all kinds of problems that it has dodged so far.

On the domestic side, I'd be pretty happy if not much happened. We could have a period like post-1783 where it was mostly just sorting things out. The biggest event was the enactment of the Constitution, which in the context of that time was not a document increasing personal freedom, but one that asserted more governmental control (Patrick Henry "smelled a rat"). However, it really did not have much of an impact until there were federal taxes imposed. Then you saw things like the Whiskey Rebellion that were unpopular -- and made the anti-federal side even more unpopular -- and soon put down as a consensus formed around the new government. I can see things like that happening, either over Obamacare or something else. (Then in another 200 years, patriots will point to Obamacare as what makes them free).

I thing one of the best scenarios would be if the US actually achieves energy independence first with natural gas and then with renewables through a combination of increased production and more efficient usage/living. This would likely bring manufacturing back to the US and take the foreign policy focus off of the Middle East. The 2020s and 2030s are likely going to be all about optimism re technology and the re-ascent of science. Like this Donald Fagan song about 1958 -- the IGY: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sogYgHlNnqo (get your cup of coffee and enjoy a morning groove.)

Of course we may all be high on SOMA by then -- I always thought Huxley was better on predicting dystopia than Orwell.

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GandK
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by GandK »

Dragline wrote:Yes -- I am honestly most concerned about another war. Something that happens outside the U.S. that we react to. The Arab spring countries will not be stable again for a number of years. But I wouldn't be surprised if there is another financial upheaval that starts in China or somewhere else. China is a big candidate for all kinds of problems that it has dodged so far.
Agreed. It seems like every 6 months I read a new study on China's "bare branches" and how the skewed gender ratio there is eventually going to lead to global Armageddon. Here's the underlying premise:

http://www.hcs.harvard.edu/~hapr/winter ... hudson.pdf (3 pages)

Chad
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Chad »

Even with the skewed male to female ratio in China the chance of a big war is unlikely. Both the US and China are built on business and business wouldn't like that kind of war (yes, a few would, but not enough). I find the "hollow" China (hidden liabilities and problems) idea to be the bigger risk in any scenario that includes China.

We are still a good 2-3 decades off of the Chinese military being a threat to the US military. In reality, the British could basically stop any push out by China at this point, without US help.

Seneca
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Seneca »

Dragline wrote:One of my favorites -- from 1997: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYW3accapOk
Refreshing, I ended up watching several of their interviews last night, will have to go get the book, thanks.

As a very late X-er, and an optimist at heart, I've always pretty much despised all the Gen X negativity and talk. You also hear about how much more tech savvy Millenials are, which normally elicits a good laugh from me.

I guess as Jenny points out, hating to be pigeonholed is exactly one of our defining traits according to Howe though isn't it. :lol:

If we are relying on the millenials to "save us" like we hear so often, I couldn't be more pessimistic about the future. I just don't see them as a group so much smarter/wiser/savvier than anyone else, not worse either mind.

Manufacturing was brought up...while cheap energy would be an enabler, the current enabler of "onshoring" has been the rise of the third world middle class and attendant automation, both likely to continue. Freeing of commerce laws in countries like China also seems to have peaked, they're adding more bureaucracy back every year. Rapid manufacturing also is going to play a huge role. I don't see manufacturing ever regaining it's place as the core employer of middle class America, people hoping for this are likely to be sorely disappointed. I see it to be more like farming, employed numbers continuing to decline even as America increases output.

I'd love to see the power breakthroughs discussed here, mainly for geopolitical reasons, but don't see them as the make/break of American manufacturing.

Chad
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Chad »

Seneca wrote:If we are relying on the millenials to "save us" like we hear so often, I couldn't be more pessimistic about the future. I just don't see them as a group so much smarter/wiser/savvier than anyone else, not worse either mind.
Neither of them suggest that millenials are smarter, but that they just are different. They will move us from our current extreme of "anything goes as long as we make a dollar" to something more community/group oriented. Of course, this will probably go to far, but we are NO where near that right now.

Seneca wrote: Freeing of commerce laws in countries like China also seems to have peaked, they're adding more bureaucracy back every year.
Increase in bureaucracy an opinion or from some source?

Seneca
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Seneca »

Chad wrote:Increase in bureaucracy an opinion or from some source?
The source is me...in the course of my job I have to deal with various aspects on how to get electronics components made within a factory we have there, and exported/imported to China hubs for distribution to customers.

Even just getting a visa to go there has gotten worse in the last decade.

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Ego
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Ego »

How does this jive with Taleb's notion that the world is by and large unpredictable?

Right now it appears that a large portion of the Millennial generation is refusing to move out of the basement and the Boomers are reverting to childhood. It is very possible that Millenials will refuse their roles as heroes and Boomers might never die, they'll just grow older and older without dignity, shame or cognizance that anything is wrong with the picture. It seem the whole proposition rests on each generation's willingness to assume their assigned role. What happens if they don't follow the script?

Technology is advancing faster than we can fathom. And it is accelerating. Clark's third law did not exist for my great-grandfather who at the age of thirty-three with five children died of TB. To say that his generation and mine will follow the same historic arc seems, well, hard to believe.

Chad
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Re: Generational Differences

Post by Chad »

You have a point Ego. Though, I think the same basic human characteristics force us to repeat history over and over. The only difference really seems to be the speed/acceleration of it all.

There is one abherration in US history: The Civil War.

"According to the above chart, generational types have appeared in Anglo-American history in a fixed order for more than 500 years, with one hiccup in the Civil War Saeculum. The reasons for this is because according to the chart, the Civil War came about ten years too early; the adult generations allowed the worst aspects of their generational personalities to come through; and the Progressives grew up scarred rather than ennobled."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2 ... nal_theory

I don't think it was just because it came too early. I think the bigger issue is that they were killed in droves.

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